Likud reevaluates strategy against Ofer Winter while shifting focus to turnout in loyal strongholds

As long as Likud continues trying to persuade Winter to withdraw, an agreement with him is not on the table. The party could still change its policy toward him through October 16.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's circle is concerned that Ofer Winter could join forces with Avigdor Liberman after the election, and for now the Likud's approach toward him remains unchanged, according to officials familiar with the party's campaign strategy.

Officials seeking to change the policy toward Winter reject that assessment, pointing out that polls count him as part of the Netanyahu bloc and that he has not distanced himself from it.

There is also no need to make an immediate decision regarding a surplus-vote agreement. The deadline for notifying the Central Elections Committee of such an agreement is October 16, 11 days before the election.

As long as Likud continues trying to persuade Winter to withdraw, an agreement with him is not on the table. The party could still change its policy toward him through October 16.

A party official estimated that upcoming polls showing Winter winning six seats could change the internal debate in Likud and make it more difficult to maintain the assumption that pressure could force him to withdraw.

Likud leans on increasing party voter turnout

Likud also believes that increasing turnout among party supporters could significantly strengthen its position. Campaign officials are also concerned about the possibility that Winter will remain in the race until the end, come close to the electoral threshold but fail to cross it, causing votes equivalent to several Knesset seats to go to waste.

According to an official familiar with the campaign's work, that concern emerges from internal polls conducted by Shlomo Filber and presented to Netanyahu and his circle.

Officials familiar with the election campaign said Likud had identified areas where the party received strong support in the previous election, but overall voter turnout was low. As an example, they cited polling stations where Likud received about 50% of the vote while overall turnout stood at roughly 35%.

Campaign officials believe that some of the voters who did not turn out in those areas were Likud supporters who simply stayed home. Better mobilization of that pool, according to the campaign's assessment, could be worth two to three Knesset seats for the party. The calculation is based on voting patterns in the previous election.

Likud officials said some of those identified are elderly voters who have difficulty reaching polling stations. Others stayed home for more routine reasons, including distance, lines, fatigue, or the feeling that a single vote would not change the result.

Campaign invests in bringing supporters to polling stations

The officials said that even people who intend to vote and say in advance that they will do so sometimes ultimately decide not to go to the polls on Election Day. The campaign intends to invest significant effort in bringing those supporters to polling stations throughout the day.

Officials familiar with the campaign's field operations said that restrictions on the use of Elector would require more intensive work on the ground. Under Likud's plans, personnel will be stationed near polling places to keep records, while reports will be received on who has already voted and a telephone campaign center will operate as backup.

The campaign plans to monitor turnout throughout the day among supporters identified in advance, determine which of them have not yet reached the polls, and activate its voter-mobilization operation accordingly.

Likud officials believe the effort can be carried out despite the restrictions on Elector. Officials familiar with the plans said it would require more intensive work by campaign personnel and could even, from an organizational standpoint, "turn out for the better" because it would require an "extra effort" in the field.

Campaign officials describe their outlook as one of "cautious optimism," in part because they believe a significant number of supporters who did not vote in the previous election can be brought to the polls this time. The possibility that Winter could withdraw from the race is also affecting the campaign's assessments.