Labour hits highest poll rating since 2024 after Burnham's conference speech... as snap election fever rages

Published: 10:38 BST, 4 October 2026 | Updated: 10:38 BST, 4 October 2026

Andy Burnham looks to have secured a poll bounce after his conference speech - as snap election fever rages.

Labour support was up two points to 30 per cent in the latest Opinium research, the highest level the firm has detected since 2024.

Reform were five points behind, despite Nigel Farage's outfit gaining a point to reach 25 per cent, while the Tories were languishing on 17 per cent.

The figures could be enough to give Mr Burnham a small majority should he go for an early ballot - something many believe is still possible despite repeated denials.

Electoral Calculus projections suggest that with that voting split Labour might get 342 seats, with Reform on 155 and the Conservatives on just 55. 

However, the volatility in constituencies means that the outcome would be extremely difficult to predict.

Labour support was up two points to 30 per cent in the latest Opinium research, the highest level the firm has detected since 2024

Andy Burnham looks to have secured a poll bounce after his conference speech - as snap election fever rages

Mr Burnham has been furiously trying to quell rumours of a snap election, declaring the idea 'dead' before Labour conference last week.

But he used his big speech in Liverpool to unveil policies on social care, electoral reform, the state pension 'triple lock' and Brexit that would only happen after an election.

Kemi Badenoch - who is kicking off Tory conference in Birmingham - has urged her party to be ready for a ballot in May.

Although the Opinium findings are bleak for the Conservatives, they have been seeing better polling numbers with other firms.

The latest survey found Mr Burnham's personal rating was up one point to a net positive of eight.

Mrs Badenoch was on minus one, while Mr Farage's score was a long way back on minus 22.

Opinium found voters were generally in favour of a national social care service, which was proposed by Mr Burnham without giving full details of timings or funding.

The public were also supportive of his vague pledge to explore 'options' about the UK's relationship with the EU.

James Crouch, head of policy and public affairs at Opinium, said: 'Andy Burnham clearly knows how to deliver a commanding conference speech, backed by major policy announcements, that dominates the political agenda. 

'The question now is simple: can Kemi Badenoch seize the country's attention next week in anything like the same way?' 

The latest survey found Mr Burnham's personal rating was up one point to a net positive of eight