PH-Bersatu clashes in Melaka could benefit BN, PN – Analysts

KUALA LUMPUR: Pakatan Harapan and Bersatu contesting against each other in four Melaka constituencies could benefit Barisan Nasional and Perikatan Nasional.

Political analysts said the clashes in Klebang, Gadek, Ayer Keroh and Pengkalan Batu exposed the limitations of the understanding between PH and Bersatu, despite their signing of a Confidence and Supply Agreement (CSA).

Universiti Teknologi Mara (UiTM) political analyst Prof Dr Mujibu Abd Muis said the CSA was primarily an instrument to ensure parliamentary stability and should not be interpreted as an electoral pact between the parties.

Mujibu said the overlapping contests demonstrated that parties could function as parliamentary partners while remaining direct electoral rivals.

"This highlights the distinct calculations at play in Malaysian politics. While federal-level cooperation ensures governance stability, state-level dynamics are driven by independent electoral interests and ambitions," he said.

However, he said the clashes also exposed the limitations of the PH-Bersatu understanding, particularly with Bersatu challenging PKR in Klebang and DAP in Gadek, Ayer Keroh and Pengkalan Batu.

Mujibu said the bigger challenge would be whether both sides could maintain cooperation in Putrajaya while campaigning against each other in Melaka without allowing local political hostility to undermine future ties.

"Competing directly for the same seats will complicate efforts to build mutual trust and hamper the development of a sustainable long-term relationship," he said.

On the electoral implications, he identified vote fragmentation, deteriorating grassroots relations and declining voter confidence as three key concerns.

He said direct competition in overlapping constituencies could fragment votes, although the extent of the impact would depend on local demographics, candidate profiles and previous voting patterns.

The presence of other parties like Gerakan and Bersama, in multi-cornered contests such as Ayer Keroh would further complicate the electoral calculations.

"To maintain credibility ahead of the 16th General Election, any future cooperation must move beyond loose parliamentary agreements and clearly define common objectives, political boundaries and shared responsibilities," he said.

Meanwhile, Universiti Utara Malaysia political analyst Prof Dr Azizuddin Mohd Sani said the absence of a formal electoral pact between PH and Bersatu meant multi-cornered contests were to be expected.

He said the outcome would inevitably lead to vote-splitting, potentially benefiting BN and PN.

"Based on what had happened in Johor and Negri Sembilan, it favours BN and PN. Thus, in Melaka, it will suit BN and PN to win again," he said.