After 100 days Burnham has a Farage problem - he needs his bogeyman to stick around

As Andy Burnham prepares to mark his first 100 days in Downing Street he may have an unexpected problem - he has been too successful in nullifying the threat of Nigel Farage being prime minister.

An irrelevant Reform UK is the last thing Mr Burnham wants.

The polls this week show that without actually doing much to deserve it, the Labour prime minister has put his party in a position to win a majority at the next election.

The latest Ipsos poll, which put Labour on 32 per cent, suggested that another big majority is in his reach of north of 130, and rival pollsters FindOutNow, More in Common and YouGov have all suggested Mr Burnham has a big enough lead to win.

All this will fuel rabid speculation that there will be an early election. Even now the Tories, Reform and SNP are preparing for a December poll.

Why an early election

Mr Burnham continues to deny it but everything he has done in his first 100 days points to an early election.

You could look at his Labour conference speech which was essentially an election manifesto making ambitious promises on solving social care, ending the pensions triple lock, revisiting Brexit and election reform, but only after getting a new election mandate.

Or alternatively could look at the fact he has pledged to abide by the Keir Starmer 2024 election red lines on tax rises and Brexit until he has gone to the people himself.

And even the the series of feel-good policies he has brought in on energy bills and bus tickets - exactly the sort of thing you do just before an election.

Furthermore you could look at this Budget coming up which is very much a “steady as she goes” holding pattern by all reports.

And it is clear from the plethora of TikTok style social media videos, Mr Burnham has been in campaign mode throughout his first 100 days.

Turnaround in the polls

But most of all is the state of the polls.

Now Labour has broken the 30 per cent barrier for the first time since the 2024 election it will give Mr Burnham and his inner circle the confidence that they can win their own mandate without needing to do a deal with the Lib Dems or Greens.

However, what helps them most - for now- is the state of parties on the right. That though is about to change and not in Mr Burnham’s favour.

As things stand Kemi Badenoch and the Tories appear to be at a turning point in their fortunes, in the mid-20s and on an upward trajectory. Nigel Farage and Reform UK though are about to disappear down a black hole.

They are now polling on 20 per cent, four points behind the Tories and things are only getting worse. It is clear now that unless something truly extraordinary happens Mr Farage stands next to no chance of being prime minister.

This is actually not good news for Mr Burnham, not least because voters actually like Ms Badenoch, it is just her Conservative Party they are unsure about. It is worth noting that Ipsos had Ms Badenoch tied with Mr Burnham on 35 per cent for leader satisfaction, well ahead of Mr Farage on 22 per cent.

Needing a bogeyman

Ever since he returned to parliament before the summer in the Makerfield by-election Mr Burnham’s pitch has been as the Labour leader who can beat Reform and stop Farage. He succeeded in Makerfield, a seat dominated by Reform in the May local elections.

Since then his positivity, engaging social media content, high emotional intelligence and empathy is in stark contrast with the robotic awkwardness of his predecessor Keir Starmer.

He also compares very well to the increasingly grumpy Mr Farage, besieged with investigations into himself and senior figures in his party.

While Mr Farage, like the Zack Polanski and the Greens, were able to prosper during the torturous Starmer premiership, they have found no answer to the cheery Mr Burnham.

There is now even serious talk that things are so bad for Mr Farage that he may walk away, especially as he has no interest in parliament, can make money in America and what would be the point of him sticking around if he is not even on course to be leader of the opposition.

But arguably Mr Burnham needs Mr Farage to stick around. He needs a bogeyman to keep people distracted from his own shortcomings.

At the moment voters are thinking very tactically in a “stop Reform” mindset. With Mr Farage gone, Reform would drop into obscurity and the tactical voting issue would be nullified.

This is exacerbated by the fact that the threat of Reform has somewhat detoxified the Tory brand and they would benefit most from voters switching from Mr Farage’s party.

Added to that without his bogeyman, Mr Burnham will suddenly have nowhere to hide and will face a great deal more scrutiny.

Avoiding scrutiny

Already there are mutterings about the property dealings which took place when he was mayor of Manchester. Not least with the Abu Dhabi United Group owners of Manchester City, after the prime minister made the mistake of defending them when they were found guilty of 114 financial irregularities.

But there is an ongoing long-running legal battle brought by developer Aubrey Weis about the way certain other developers were allegedly given unfair subsidies under Mr Burnham’s watch, which could get very uncomfortable for the PM.

Another reason he may want to have an early election is that he has made so many big promises he will be facing growing scrutiny on all those issues.

The economic situation is also not going to get better. The wars in Ukraine and the Middle East do not look set to end anytime soon, while the French bond market is in a precarious situation. A crash in France could trigger a wider one in the eurozone and would likely drag the UK in too.

If the UK needs bailing out, the cost in terms of wide-ranging cuts and tax rises would mean that winning an election would be impossible, however much Mr Burnham wants to be everyone’s pal.

But then this is also a PM who has done his best to avoid scrutiny. He became prime minister at the start of the summer recess which meant it was almost two months before he was grilled in parliament.

However, his most shameful avoidance has been with the press. He is yet to give a proper press conference. The two he gave were a brief one in Scotland and another on social care where journalists were told beforehand that they could not ask about anything else.

He has done puff interviews with friendly media and sat down with celebrities like Gary Lineker or cherished former colleagues like Alistair Campbell.

But his strategy has been to rely heavily on soft direct social media with voters and avoid difficult questions.

In a world where Mr Farage is no longer the centre of attention there is a concern that strategy becomes untenable going forward.

While the polls are positive and he has a net positive approval, it was noticeable that voters were divided down the middle when YouGov asked if he had been good or a disappointment.

What it tells you is that Mr Burnham needs Mr Farage and Reform UK to stay a threat or else he faces serious problems if he does not hold an early election.

Maybe more important is that Mr Burnham now has a narrow window where Reform still cancels the Tories out. If Farage goes then we are back to a two party system and he will face a much more difficult opponent in a Conservative Party that has revamped itself.