Bowl projections: Alabama, Penn State, Ole Miss move into College Football Playoff bracket

Do you think it was personal for Ole Miss during Saturday night's public shaming of Lane Kiffin?

The Rebels' impressive Trinidad Chambliss-led win over LSU in a showdown of unbeaten top-10 teams has pushed Pete Golding's squad into our updated College Football Playoff bracket this week to lead our Week 4 bowl projections update.

Ole Miss is one of three new teams to join the CFP lookahead after a narrative-setting victory in the SEC opener for both teams. The Rebels have four more games this season against opponents currently ranked inside the top 25, the same number as Kiffin's Tigers.

After USC's near slip-up at Rutgers, Penn State joins the group of CFP hopefuls from the Big Ten. If the SEC intends to put four (or more) teams in the bracket, Alabama is one of those with an opportunity in the coming weeks after handling Florida State, 50-36, behind four total touchdowns from Keelon Russell.

Bowl season dilemma for execs 

Reports of bowl season's potential demise earlier in the week had me in my feelings, with writing on the wall largely dependent on college football's future playoff format and Power Four programs no longer being interested in playing high-end Group of Six teams after moving to nine-game conference schedules.

CBS Sports reached out to several bowl directors this week, but those who responded offered no comment on the future of college football's postseason. The root issue is signing multi-year sponsorships for games involving the Big Ten and SEC, since a possible 24-team CFP expansion would likely remove many featured programs from those matchups.

Pushing games like the Citrus, ReliaQuest, Music City and Gator Bowl to before the season is a possibility if playoff growth comes to fruition.

For 2026, we'll have 35 traditional bowl games, along with 11 in the CFP. And we're updating our projections for every matchup weekly until we get there.

Tomorrow's Top 25 Today: Ole Miss joins top five, Texas A&M tumbles in college football rankings

Chip Patterson

Cricket Celebration

Projection: South Carolina State vs. Alabama State

Salute to Veterans

Projection: UMass vs. Louisiana

Frisco Football Classic

Projection: Memphis vs. Colorado State

Charles Huff's Tigers are in the Group of Six CFP conversation despite their Week 2 loss at Boise State, since they're the clear favorite in the American entering league play in October. Unfortunately for Memphis, the margin for error is zero since the Broncos will be favored to win out in the Pac-12 and their only loss — at Oregon — may hold water at season's end if the Ducks rebound.

Boca Raton 

Projection: Eastern Michigan vs. North Texas

Gasparilla

Projection: Vanderbilt vs. Tulane

A newcomer to our bowl projections this week, the Commodores pulled a stunning win over NC State to move to 3-0 improbably with a fumble recovery in the end zone with one second to play. Clark Lea's program has already handed the keys over to five-star freshman quarterback Jared Curtis, who overcame a couple giveaways in his first career start to beat the Wolfpack.

Myrtle Beach

Projection: Old Dominion vs. Jacksonville State

Potato 

Projection: Toledo vs. Air Force

Puerto Rico 

Projection: Tulsa vs. Delaware 

Cure 

Projection: Troy vs. JMU

Hawaii

Projection: Oregon State vs. Hawaii

Freshman wideout Jesse Legree has made an immediate splash for the Beavers, leading the FBS in yards and touchdowns over his first couple of starts as a first-year pass catcher. Hawaii is off to a 1-2 start but should be a mid-tier finisher in the Mountain West as a potential six-win team.

Independence 

Projection: San Diego State vs. Washington

New Orleans

Projection: Appalachian State vs. Kennesaw State

Armed Forces 

Projection: Arizona State vs. Army 

Poinsettia 

Projection: North Dakota State vs. Cal

North Dakota State jumped from FCS to FBS this year when it joined the Mountain West and must go 13-0 to be in the conversation for the Group of Six's lone guaranteed CFP representative in a few months. The Bison were one of only two teams in college football looking to move to 4-0 Saturday after playing in Week 0. After beating Air Force on the road on Sept. 12, North Dakota State has one of its toughest games in the rearview. The other season-defining matchups in the Mountain West come against UNLV, New Mexico and Nevada next month. And only one of those games comes at the Fargodome.

Frisco Bowl

Projection: UTSA vs. Liberty

New Mexico 

Projection: Fresno State vs. UNLV

We never envisioned Dan Mullen's Rebels to be 1-2 at this point, not as our preseason dark horse to get to the CFP from the Group of Six. The opener against Memphis was close, but a 38-point road loss to North Texas ended any visions of reaching the 12-team bracket. Even if UNLV wins the Mountain West, the Rebels are playing for a spot outside of the final top 25.

Pinstripe

Projection: Maryland vs. Wake Forest

Fenway 

Projection: Pitt vs. Navy

Mayo

Projection: Virginia vs. Wisconsin

68 Ventures 

Projection: Georgia Southern vs. Miami (Ohio)

Cactus 

Projection: Minnesota vs. West Virginia 

Military

Projection: Duke vs. USF

Birmingham

Projection: Auburn vs. Clemson

Clemson looked dead in the water against North Carolina before a heroic second-half comeback, including a red-zone hold midway through the fourth quarter after a lengthy weather delay. The Tigers have reached bowl eligibility every year under Dabo Swinney, and Saturday's victory might've been a season-saver in the ACC thanks to a 105-yard effort on the ground from Gideon Davidson.

Pop-Tarts

Projection: SMU vs. TCU

For the first time this season, SMU moves out of our CFP projection and into the Pop-Tarts bowl against a Big 12 opponent. With Miami, Virginia and now Louisville as the teams to beat in the ACC, the Mustangs have ground to make up if they intend on playing in Charlotte later this year.

Alamo

Projection: Houston vs. Oregon

The Ducks fell out of our CFP projection last week after the sting of Oklahoma State, and Friday's 84-0 win over Portland State doesn't close that wound just yet. That was a punching-bag victory against an FCS program, with the real rebound test coming next week at USC to open Big Ten competition. ... Houston's tough, two-point loss at Texas Tech puts the Cougars in an unwanted position of needing to win out in hopes of reaching the Big 12 title game.

Gator 

Projection: Virginia Tech vs. Texas A&M

The original projection was the Beamer Bowl with Virginia Tech taking on South Carolina, but the Gamecocks' sixth-year coach is now projected to miss the postseason for the second straight year after a loss to Mississippi State. His job's in jeopardy as a result. Texas A&M's home loss to Kentucky will bring Mike Elko's team down a few pegs and should push the Aggies outside the top 15 in Sunday's updated rankings.

Music City

Projection: Nebraska vs. Oklahoma

There's still much to learn about both of these former Big 12 rivals, but assuming the Sooners do not get things corrected offensively this fall, it's unlikely there's enough juice on that side of the football for a return trip to the CFP. The loss at Michigan last week revealed ugly warts that were there last season and haven't yet dissipated.

ReliaQuest 

Projection: Michigan vs. Mississippi State

The win over Oklahoma last week sparked early CFP buzz for the Wolverines, but they're going to need more production offensively to get there. Michigan plays five nationally ranked opponents in Big Ten play, beginning with Iowa on Sept. 26. 

Sun 

Projection: Georgia Tech vs. Arizona

Las Vegas

Projection: USC vs. LSU

The Trojans dropped out of our CFP bracket this week after a 42-35 win at Rutgers showed USC still has significant holes on defense. The Scarlet Knights churned out 460 total yards and had a chance to take the lead in the third quarter before a 99-yard interception return for a score pushed USC to a two-score lead. ... LSU is here after Saturday night's loss to Ole Miss, but we haven't heard the last of the Tigers.

Texas

Projection: Oklahoma State vs. Florida

What a difference two weeks has made for first-year coach Eric Morris and Oklahoma State. After losing the season opener at Tulsa and being pounded with criticism, the Cowboys responded with an emphatic win over Oregon, slapping the Ducks around to snap a 21-game losing skid against FBS opponents. Tennessee battles top-ranked Texas next weekend in the SEC opener for each. The Cowboys and Gators have met once, a Florida victory in 1990.

Citrus

Projection: Iowa vs. Tennessee

The Citrus Bowl gets its pick of Big Ten and SEC teams once the CFP bracket is decided, and we're expecting Penn State and Alabama to be inside the top 20 after nine-win seasons. The Crimson Tide played in Orlando three times under Nick Saban — once in the Capital One Bowl, once in the Citrus and met Louisville during an opening weekend game — but haven't been back.

First Responder

Projection: UCLA vs. Illinois

Liberty

Projection: Kansas State vs. Missouri

This longstanding former Big 12 rivalry went on a 10-year hiatus before the Wildcats and Tigers finished a home-and-home agreement in 2023. With no future series scheduled, those in Memphis would love for these two to get together in this Big 12 vs. SEC matchup.

Arizona 

Projection: New Mexico vs. Ohio

Holiday

Projection: Louisville vs. Utah

The Cardinals are a serious CFP threat after the momentum-changing win over SMU in the ACC opener for Jeff Brohm's team and do not play another nationally ranked opponent this season. And with the loss to Ole Miss appearing elite with the Rebels as one of the SEC's best teams, the CFP Selection Committee will consider that, too.

College Football Playoff 

First round

Projection: (9) Penn State at (8) Ole Miss

No team in college football has two better wins than the Rebels, who took out Louisville in the opener and handled LSU on Saturday night in Oxford. Penn State makes its debut in our 12-team projection this week given the Nittany Lions' remaining slate and eye-test lovability to this point. Penn State's game against USC in a couple of weeks is vital toward each team's Big Ten title hopes.

Projection: (10) BYU at (7) Ohio State

There's a chance BYU finds itself in a scenario similar to last season — needing a win in the Big 12 Championship Game against Texas Tech to assure itself of a playoff appearance. This time around, however, an 11-2 finish might be enough to get the Cougars in if the only losses are to Notre Dame and an unbeaten Red Raiders squad.

The Buckeyes' odds to reach the bracket are close to 50-50 right now, per oddsmakers, after the early season loss at Texas complicated things just a bit. Ohio State still has a handful of games against nationally ranked competition, and multiple losses in the Big Ten would be a cause for concern. Ohio State does not want to finish 9-3 overall and leave it up to the CFP committee.

Projection: (11) Alabama at (6) Texas Tech

Give the Red Raiders credit — after only playing one game last fall within a single possession during Big 12 action, Texas Tech has already endured one of those nail-biting scenarios this fall following Friday night's narrow win over Houston. The Red Raiders needed a goal-line stop on a two-point conversion in the final moments to prevail and stay out front in the conference race. Alabama's here as the last team in this week. It's a brutal slate remaining for the Crimson Tide, but there's room for error in the SEC with so many top-15 teams.

Projection: (12) Boise State at (5) Texas

A lot of football left before the Group of Six's guaranteed playoff representative comes into focus, but Texas is certainly going to the CFP if the Longhorns handle business in SEC play after this month's big win over Ohio State. That's the most impressive victory yet in 2026, turning back a 20-point fourth-quarter deficit for a signature mark of Steve Sarkisian's tenure.

Quarterfinals

Peach  

Projection: (8) LSU vs. (1) Miami

The Hurricanes came out of Friday's 33-20 win at Wake Forest banged up with a few injuries and were challenged for the first time this season after consecutive runaway victories. Avoiding complacency will be challenging for Mario Cristobal throughout, at least until Miami travels to Notre Dame in November.

Cotton  

Projection: (7) Ohio State vs. (2) Georgia

Georgia is a well-oiled machine on both sides of the football through three games, but the gauntlet begins now with Oklahoma, Vanderbilt, Alabama and Auburn coming over the next four weeks before a midseason open date. Gunner Stockton has fully mastered Mike Bobo's offense, and we have to give the Bulldogs the edge at the moment in the SEC over Texas given Kirby Smart's unbeaten mark against Steve Sarkisian head-to-head.

Rose  

Projection: (6) Texas Tech vs. (3) Indiana

Indiana is our new favorite this week to win the Big Ten given Ohio State's loss to Texas and the Buckeyes' challenging schedule the rest of the way. We're confident the Hoosiers and Buckeyes will meet twice this season, with the first matchup in a couple of weeks in Bloomington. That's the first of three games against top-20 conference teams down the stretch for the defending national champions.

Fiesta

Projection: (5) Texas vs. (4) Notre Dame 

This one is giving off semifinal vibes, and we could get it in the CFP's second round. Two teams capable of winning a national championship this fall, the Longhorns and Fighting Irish face very different schedules the rest of the way, with one being considerably battle-tested and the other only having to worry about BYU and Miami down the stretch.