Weak Umno’s ambition risks instability in next govt, say analysts

Umno’s determination to remain a central force in the next government despite its diminished standing could destabilise any administration it joins after the 16th general election (GE16), analysts say.

They said that the party would still attempt to exert influence over leadership, parliamentary seats and power-sharing arrangements even if it no longer has the numbers to dominate.

Political scientist Wong Chin Huat of Sunway University said any reluctance on the part of stronger rivals to relinquish leadership would create friction in any pact they attempt to forge with Umno.

Wong said Umno may fall back on its flexibility to regain political relevance, but cautioned that coalition partners attempting to outmanoeuvre each other would only succeed in destabilising the next government.

“None of the coalitions trusts one another. But they would compromise to form a government with rivals depending on conditions,” he told FMT.

The concerns come amid mixed signals over BN’s political alignments at federal and state levels.

BN and Pakatan Harapan remain allies in the federal government, but their ties have been strained by BN’s willingness to work with Perikatan Nasional in certain states.

At the recent state election in Negeri Sembilan, BN abandoned its unity alliance with PH to team up with PN and wrest control of the state government.

In Melaka, BN has insisted it was keeping its options open, with state chairman Ab Rauf Yusoh saying the coalition was prepared to negotiate with any party ahead of the upcoming polls.

Meanwhile, in Penang, an Umno leader called for the party to continue its cooperation with PH in the state, prompting Penang PAS to question Umno’s sincerity and accuse the party of putting its political ambitions ahead of the Malay-Muslim unity agenda.

However, on Sunday, BN chairman and Umno president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi dismissed the prospect of further cooperation with PH once Parliament is dissolved, stressing that he saw no possibility of collaboration.

Wong said such shifting calculations suggest that post-election cooperation would be driven more by transactional interests than by trust.

“Stability only comes when political parties accept each other’s coexistence and stop hoping to outsmart or shortchange each other,” he said.

Awang Azman Pawi of Universiti Malaya believes that seat- and power-sharing will be the main stumbling blocks to any BN-PN pact.

He said state elections could serve as useful testing grounds for strategic cooperation ahead of the next general election, although the national context would be far more complex.

“The question of who leads and how power and seats are shared will be the real test of the durability of any BN-PN cooperation,” he said.

However, Awang Azman said the risk of instability was not unique to Umno, as any government built on a loose pact and without a clear post-election structure would face similar pressures.

He said the key issue was whether the government formed after GE16 could successfully balance the competing interests of each component party and coalition as regards policy, positions and power-sharing.

“A government with clear agreement on key policies, division of responsibilities and dispute-resolution mechanisms would have a relatively stronger basis for stability,” he said.

This, Awang Azman said, makes Umno’s own electoral performance crucial, as a stronger mandate would give the party greater autonomy and influence in shaping any post-GE16 government arrangement.

Economic impact of political instability

Tan Peck Leong of Universiti Teknologi Mara said political instability carries an economic cost because it creates policy uncertainty for investors.

He said investors often look at governance benchmarks such as the World Bank’s Worldwide Governance Indicators, which include political stability, rule of law and regulatory quality, before committing capital.

“Financial markets can react almost overnight, while longer-term investors may delay or reconsider projects because factories and infrastructure involve commitments that cannot easily be reversed,” he said.

Tan said instability could affect expectations over policy direction, approvals, incentives and regulatory continuity.

“The economy will eventually adjust, but adjustment takes time. Confidence may take years to build, yet it can be damaged very quickly,” he said.

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