USC vs. Penn State prediction, pick, odds, spread: Trojans, Nittany Lions clash at Happy Valley

No. 19 USC desperately needs a win to remain in the CFP hunt, while Penn State looks to avoid a 0-3 start in the Big Ten

Oct 8, 2026 at 3:56 pm ET • 3 min read

It's a must-have for both teams, as No. 19 USC hits the road to take on Penn State Saturday night in Happy Valley.

Penn State enters the game with its season seemingly spiraling out of control. After a 3-0 start in nonconference play under new coach Matt Campbell, the Nittany Lions have dropped their first two Big Ten games, and didn't look particularly inspiring in either. The offense struggled mightily in losses to Wisconsin and Northwestern, and last week, the defense was gashed by Northwestern's rushing attack.

Suddenly, a schedule that was considered one of the easiest in the Big Ten before the season began looks far more difficult for the Nittany Lions.

Not that things have been much easier for their opponents. The Trojans are 5-1 on the season and are coming off a win, but have looked shaky for three straight games. They found themselves in a shootout with Rutgers three weeks ago, followed that up with a 14-point home loss to Oregon, and last week flirted with disaster against a Washington team that hadn't looked impressive to start the season.

Now they're on the road against a team with its back against the wall, and a second loss (with Ohio State and Indiana still to come) could crush USC's playoff chances.

USC vs. Penn State: Need to know

It's the White-Out game: Penn State's White-Out game is a newer tradition in college football, having begun in 2007, but it's quickly become one of the games Penn State fans look forward to most. Everybody in Beaver Stadium is dressed in white and screaming at their absolute loudest. Unfortunately, the results haven't always matched the intensity. Penn State is only 11-7 in White-Out games, but that's partly because the Nittany Lions reserve the tradition for their toughest games.

It's a battle of the two winningest QBs in college football: That fact probably caught you by surprise, didn't it? Well, it's true. Penn State's Rocco Becht comes into this game with 29 wins as a starting QB in his college career. That's more than any other QB in the country. USC's Jayden Maiava is tied for second with 24. So Becht will either widen the gap this week, or Maiava will narrow it.

Penn State hoping to avoid a 0-3 start in Big Ten again: Last season, the Nittany Lions started 0-6 in Big Ten play. It was an unexpected slide that led to James Franklin's mid-season firing. If they lose here, they'll be 0-3 in the Big Ten for the second straight season. The last time that happened was the 2003 and 2004 seasons. Of course, Matt Campbell could take some solace if his team loses. He'd be the first Penn State full-time head coach to start his tenure with a 3-3 mark since Joe Paterno in 1966.

Where to watch USC vs. Penn State live

Date: Saturday, October 10 | Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
Location: Beaver Stadium -- University Park, Pennsylvania
TV: NBC | Live stream: Fubo (try free)

USC vs. Penn State prediction, picks

I find myself in a rather precarious position here. I don't like either side of the total, so I'm being asked to back a Penn State team that's looked terrible lately as a favorite, or take a USC team that's really struggled on the road under Lincoln Riley as a small dog. Frankly, there's no right option here, and I don't recommend taking any side. But, unlike you, I don't have a choice, so I guess I'm less terrified of USC +1.5 than anything else. Pick: USC +1.5

	Tom Fornelli	Chip Patterson	Brandon Marcello	John Talty	Richard Johnson	Shehan Jeyarajah	David Cobb	Brad Crawford	Chris Hummer
PSU -1.5	USC	Penn State	Penn State	USC	USC	USC	Penn State	USC	USC
SU	USC	Penn State	Penn State	USC	USC	USC	Penn State	USC	USC

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