Netanyahu 'fighting for his political life' in 1st Israeli vote since Oct. 7. He might still survive

On the cusp of Israel's first election since Benjamin Netanyahu presided over the most devastating security failure in the country's history, the Israeli prime minister is still hawking himself as the security candidate of choice and counting on it to work.

And it might. There are few Israeli analysts willing to write off the country's longest-serving prime minister in Tuesday's vote, despite the catastrophic impact of the Hamas-led attacks on Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, that killed about 1,200 people and led to 251 being taken hostage.

In an election already short-handed in terms of pro- and anti-Netanyahu blocs, opinion polls in the weeks ahead of the vote have consistently suggested neither side will win the 61 seats needed to form a majority in the Israeli Knesset.

"We are back to where we were Oct. 6 [2023] in terms of the fact that the nation is split almost in the middle, electorally speaking," Tamar Hermann, a senior research fellow at the Israel Democracy Institute (IDI) in Jerusalem, said in an interview with CBC News.

"This means that we might come out with indecisive results. We may also have a minority government, but [then] the question, if there is a minority government, how long will it last?"

Netanyahu greets supporters in Jerusalem. The deaths of more than 74,000 Palestinians in Israel’s war against Hamas — a figure from health officials in Gaza — have not been the subject of much debate in the mainstream of Israel's election campaign. (Nico Hameon/CBC)

It could also mean a lengthy period of coalition building, during which Netanyahu would serve as a caretaker prime minister.

"Israel has moved to the right ever since Oct. 7, and maybe that is part of the answer to why the current government in the polls hasn't collapsed completely," political scientist Reuven Hazan of the Hebrew University of Jerusalem said in an interview earlier this month.

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Hazan doesn't believe that Netanyahu, 77, and his far-right coalition partners will ultimately regain power, but he also said that "they should be doing a heck of a lot worse in the polls than they are."

Well-documented allegations that Netanyahu was repeatedly warned by regional allies and members of his own intelligence services that Hamas was planning a major operation against Israel but ignored them have filled newspaper columns and media broadcasts in Israel and abroad.

WATCH | What did Netanyahu know on Oct. 6?:

What Netanyahu knew before the Oct. 7 attacks

October 6|

Duration

6:03

The repeated pleas to Netanyahu by families and friends of Israeli hostages held in Gaza to agree to a deal with Hamas for their early release rather than insisting on "total victory" first have left Israel with some of its deepest scars.

The deaths of more than 74,000 Palestinians in Israel’s war against Hamas — a figure from health officials in Gaza — have not been the subject of much debate in the mainstream of Israel's election campaign. But the country's increasing isolation on the world stage has.

Israeli lawyer and longtime peace campaigner Daniel Seidemann said it's as surprising to many Israelis as it is to outsiders that Netanyahu might stand a chance of returning to office given the allegations stacked up against him.

Daniel Seidemann, an Israeli lawyer and longtime peace campaigner, estimates Netanyahu still has strong, core support of about 30 per cent of the population. (CBC)

"It's a function of a number of things," he said in an interview from his Jerusalem office. "Number one, Netanyahu's hard-core supporters have to be described as a cult."

"Absolutely nothing that can be discovered about Netanyahu will pierce the armour of their devotion to the cult leader. That is probably about 30 per cent of Israel."

Netanyahu is currently being tried on allegations of corruption, including fraud, bribery and breach of trust. And he's steadfastly refused to appoint a commission of inquiry into the failings of Oct. 7, despite public pressure.

Some question reliability of Oct. 7 warnings

The IDI's Hermann said Netanyahu supporters contend that any leader could have made similar mistakes. In polling done by the institute, she said, 43 to 46 per cent of Jewish Israelis questioned whether the warnings delivered to Netanyahu were reliable.

Hermann said 60 per cent of those surveyed about what the prime minister did or didn't know believe the allegations have surfaced close to the election as part of an agenda to topple him.

"He is honest," Monel Bercovich said at a campaign event in Jerusalem on Friday, when asked why she backs Netanyahu.

Monel Bercovich says she's backing Netanyahu in the election because he's 'honest' and has taken a tough stance on Iran. (CBC)

She also mentioned his tough stand on Iran amid speculation that Israel might launch another round of strikes against it.

"To go to Iran and to do all the wars and all the things with [U.S. President Donald] Trump."

Hermann agrees with Seidemann that Netanyahu — nicknamed Bibi by those both for and against him — enjoys an unusual relationship with core supporters.

"Some of Netanyahu's voters actually love him," she said. "I mean it is something that comes from their stomach or their heart if you wish. [It's] a phenomenon which we don't have on the centre and left."

Rival vows Oct. 7 review

There's very little of a "left" left in Israeli politics, and much of the anti-Netanyahu side — or "change bloc," as it's known — arrayed against him would be described as centre-right and right.

Netanyahu's strongest challenger in the general election is former Israel Defence Forces chief of staff Gadi Eisenkot, whose political party is called Yashar, which means "straight" or "honest" in Hebrew.

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Hazan, of Hebrew University, said Eisenkot's military background will appeal to voters concerned about security, particularly in the face of what many Israelis view as an existential threat posed by Iran.

"In other words: the security of this country, keep us safe in our homes. That's what they're looking for. But essentially, his entire campaign has not been on security issues. It's been on social issues, that this country is hemorrhaging, that we need to unite."

Gadi Eisenkot, centre, leader of the Yashar party and a former Israeli military chief, visits the Western Wall in Jerusalem's Old City on Thursday. (Ronen Zvulun/Reuters)

Eisenkot, 66, joined Netanyahu's unity government in the days immediately after Oct. 7, but resigned eight months later.

His youngest son, a master sergeant in the Israeli military, was killed in Gaza during the war, and, unlike Netanyahu, he has pledged to create an Oct. 7 commission of inquiry if elected.

Ultra-orthodox conscription issue

Eisenkot has also distinguished himself from Netanyahu by making compulsory conscription for Israel's sizable ultra-Orthodox community a campaign issue. 

Military service is mandatory in Israel for Jewish men and women once they reach 18. Until recently, the ultra-Orthodox — or Haredi — community enjoyed an exemption dating back to the founding of the state in 1948.

Israel’s Supreme Court refused to extend the exemption two years ago, despite Netanyahu's efforts. He's relied on the support of ultra-Orthodox coalition partners to stay in power over the years, and their vote will be key next week.

WATCH | How Haredi draft dodgers became a key Israeli election issue:

How Haredi draft dodgers became a key Israeli election issue

October 24|

Duration

5:11

But the exemption is a much harder sell for the rest of the country in the wake of Oct. 7.

"I think for the last few years, we saw how tough it is and how our security situation is not as secure as we thought," said 27-year-old Yonatan Lambert, who was sent to serve in Gaza and will not vote for Netanyahu.

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"If you decide that you want or don't wanna be part of the army — or part of the country — you shouldn't get anything from the country," Lambert said, a reference to subsidies paid by the Israeli government to yeshivas, where ultra-Orthodox men study full time.

"[The ultra-Orthodox] know that they will never have it so good as they do under Netanyahu," said lawyer and peace campaigner Seidemann, a view he shares of Netanyahu's other coalition partners: hardline Jewish nationalists underpinning Israel's settlement expansion in the Israeli-occupied territories.

Military exemptions for the ultra-Orthodox — or Haredi — community are a much harder sell for the rest of the country in the wake of Oct. 7. (CBC)

'Total devotion of the right-wing settler base'

Israeli settlements, including in the occupied West Bank, are considered illegal under international law.

Images of increased violence by Israeli settlers attacking Palestinians and their property as they seek to bring in their annual olive harvest have horrified onlookers and increased Israel’s isolation internationally.

"In the past, Netanyahu, with all of his bluster, was risk averse," Seidemann said. "He was attentive to international engagement in ways that he did not usually disclose, but he was capable of exhibiting restraint.

"That's not the Netanyahu that we have now. He is in a semi-messianic disgruntled mode. He is fighting for his political life, and he has decided that the way he can survive politically is by having the total devotion of the right-wing settler base."

A campaign poster for Itamar Ben-Gvir, Israel's national security minister, shows him superimposed over the images of shackled Palestinian prisoners on their knees. (CBC)

That base includes Itamar Ben-Gvir, a Jewish settler from Hebron convicted in the past of incitement to racism and support for a terrorist organization.

Appointed by Netanyahu as the country's national security minister, Ben-Gvir's campaign posters show him superimposed over the images of shackled Palestinian prisoners on their knees.

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Seidemann likens the increase in land appropriation and settler attacks in the West Bank over the past month to an "end-of-season fire sale" ahead of the election.

"There's a sense that ... let's do whatever we can now, because it's an opportunity that may not repeat itself," he said. Then again, depending on Tuesday's results, it might.