Jefferies sees semiconductor equipment growth through 2028

Jefferies expects the semiconductor production equipment market to keep expanding through 2028, even as concerns about AI investments, data center construction and memory prices weigh on sector.

Semiconductor companies and equipment makers had expressed more optimism about business fundamentals in their September-quarter earnings results, while stock market concerns about future risks had widened the gap between current performance and share price expectations.

There have been concerns about the sustainability of hyperscalers' capital spending, power constraints and delays in data center construction, financial links among major AI companies and elevated memory prices. Questions about returns on generative AI investments and risks from increasingly autonomous AI systems have also resurfaced.

But Jefferies expects growing AI adoption to sustain demand for graphics processing units, custom chips, CPUs, power semiconductors, and other components used in data centers. It also expects continued growth in memory demand.

Long-term supply agreements between semiconductor companies and customers have improved the visibility of demand over the medium term, supporting equipment makers' expectations for growth through 2028.

Jefferies expects the wafer fabrication equipment market to reach up to $200B in 2027 and about $220B in 2028, potentially below investor expectations of $200B and $250B, respectively. Still, the market should maintain strong growth through 2028.

Jefferies has Buy ratings on Applied Materials (AMAT), Lam Research (LRCX), Nvidia (NVDA), CoreWeave (CRWV), Meta (META), Microsoft (MSFT), and Amazon (AMZN). It has Hold ratings on ASML Holding (ASML) and SCREEN Holdings (DINRF).