Missouri State vs. Western Kentucky CFB odds Thursday: Hilltoppers should end 4-game skid against FBS foes
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Missouri State visits Western Kentucky in Conference USA action on CBS Sports Network on Thursday
• 4 min read
We have a quartet of college football games around the country tonight, although no power conferences are in action. I'll focus on the CBS Sports Network game from Conference USA as Missouri State (1-3) visits Western Kentucky (1-4). It's a 7 ET kick and already nearly a must-win game for the hosts as one of the preseason conference favorites. Bet on college football at DraftKings, where new users get $150 when they spend $5+:
The weather looks good in Bowling Green, Ky.: mostly clear sky. Low 51F. Winds light and variable. At DraftKings, there is split ATS action at WKU -2.5 but heavy on the home team at -135 on the money line. Over 56.5 is seeing 86% of money and 55% of bets.
You can try college football betting on the best sports betting apps, but first you should check out the SportsLine Projection Model for picks on games from both the simulations and our experts. We have a strong play here for those who want to get into parlay betting for Missouri State vs. Western Kentucky.
Missouri St. vs. Western Kentucky same-game parlay
- Hilltoppers money line
- Alt Under 65.5
FanDuel price: +131 (subject to change)
Conference USA didn't put out an official preseason football poll but a "bowl confidence index," and WKU was at 100% along with Jacksonville State and Liberty. Some national publications had Western Kentucky as the CUSA favorite. The Hilltoppers have yet to win that conference title despite their success under coach Tyson Helton -- five straight seasons of at least eight total wins entering 2026.
WKU is one of only nine FBS programs and the lone Group of 6 team with at least eight victories in each of the past five. That's almost surely ending, but Western Kentucky has played a tough schedule that has included visits to ranked Georgia and Indiana. The last time Western Kentucky started 1-4 was in 2021 and it finished 9-5.
After the Hilltoppers were beaten 34-13 at New Mexico State last Thursday in their conference opener, they are now +900 longshots just to reach the CUSA Championship Game for the first time since 2024. Including last season's bowl game, Western Kentucky is on a four-game losing streak against FBS foes, dropping those by an average of 36.0 points per and each by a minimum of 21 points. The school hasn't started 0-2 in CUSA play since 2018.
Quarterback Rodney Tisdale Jr. was the 2025 Conference USA Freshman of the Year and went 4-2 as a starter, but he is under siege in 2026. Tisdale has been sacked 11 times, tied for most in the conference, and has the worst pass efficiency (75.2) against the blitz in the league. Backup Brock Glenn, whom you may remember as a former starter at Florida State, sees action as well and is tied for the CUSA lead with four rushing scores.
WKU is usually a dynamic offensive program but is averaging the fewest yards per play (4.9) and has the highest three-and-out percentage (33.8%) in CUSA. The defense allows 6.8 yards per play and 6.2 yards per rush, both worst in the league. The Hilltoppers have the worst turnover differential (minus-5) and worst points off turnovers differential (minus-33) in the conference.
But on the bright side, they have won four straight conference home openers and are 6-1 at home since the start of last season, with all seven (even the loss) decided by at least 15 points.
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Missouri State, in its conference opener, is under first-year coach Casey Woods, formerly SMU's offensive coordinator. He replaced Ryan Beard, who left to become the head coach at Coastal Carolina. In that preseason bowl confidence thing I mentioned, Missouri State had only a 35% shot at a bowl berth. This is the program's second year as a full-time FBS/CUSA member after finishing 7-6 in 2025. To reach the league title game, the Bears are +800.
Their lone win thus far was a 48-14 home blowout of lower-tier school Lindenwood, as MSU has played three good FBS programs in Texas A&M, Marshall and SMU. Dating to last season, Missouri State has lost five in a row to FBS schools (after winning the previous five) by an average of 21.2 PPG.
Quarterback Skyler Locklear, a UTEP transfer, leads CUSA in completion percentage (70.2%) but has very definitive home/road splits. In two home games, he's completing 75.0% of his throws for an average of 283.5 passing yards with three TDs and one pick. In two away, he's completing 63.9% and averaging only 66.0 passing yards with one TD and no INTs.
Missouri State has the worst average starting field position on offense (own 26.7-yard line) in CUSA partly because its defense is allowing the highest third-down conversion rate in the league at 46.2%. That unit is last in total defense (439.8 YPG), while WKU's is second-to-last (421.6 YPG).
"Defensively, bend-don't-break defense," Helton said of Missouri State. "They do a good job of playing their scheme well. You don't see a ton of explosive plays down the field."
Western Kentucky has won the past nine in the series, including 27-22 away last year in MSU's first-ever conference game as an FBS team. The Bears haven't won in Bowling Green since 1984.
For the alt total, I wanted to get above 65 in case of a 34-31, 35-30, etc., final score -- the model has WKU prevailing 32-29. The Hilltoppers have won 12 of their last 14 games at Houchens-Smith Stadium, and they should pull this out by a field goal or so. Check out other expert picks in the SportsLine daily newsletter.
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