UK retail sales drop after warm weather hits winter clothing demand

UK retail sales volumes declined last month as warmer weather dragged on demand for autumn and winter clothing, according to official figures.

It was a steeper drop than expected, with economists having predicted a decline of 0.1% for the month.

The fall points to fragile consumer confidence ahead of Chancellor John Healey’s first Budget next week.

It followed a 0.7% increase in August and a 0.4% fall in July.

These were both revised upwards in the latest figures, improving from a 0.5% estimated rise for August and a predicted 0.5% decline in July.

The monthly decline was partly linked to weakness from clothing and footwear retailers, which saw a 0.9% fall for September.

Retailers reported that unusually warm weather in September led to subdued sales of autumn and winter clothing lines.

Food stores saw sales fall by 0.4% for the month, representing the weakest performance for four months.

It represented a step back after growth in July and August, after hot summer weather had boosted demand for some products.

Elsewhere, sales volumes of motor fuel lifted by 2.2% despite prices moving higher again as demand for petrol and diesel continued its recovery since prices first spiked early in 2026.

The ONS added that the volume of products bought from retailers was up 0.7% for the third quarter of 2026, compared with the previous three-month period.

ONS senior statistician Hannah Finselbach said: “Retail sales grew in the latest quarter with growth led by motor fuel which, despite recent price increases at the pump, have now returned to monthly sales levels last seen before the start of the conflict in the Middle East.

“Food and drink sales also contributed to growth in the quarter, partly helped by the warm weather and the World Cup, although they fell back slightly in September.”

Matt Swannell, chief economic adviser to the Item Club, said: “Digging into the detail, there are some tentative signs that the consumer is coming under pressure.

“Over the last three months, non-food store volumes were flat with some firms reporting that customers are cutting back.”

Jacqueline Windsor, head of retail at PwC UK, said: “With most retailers’ sales coming in the last three months of the year, the upcoming peak season remains on a knife edge.

“This time last year, uncertainty surrounding the late budget at the end of November held back spending in the preceding two months.

“While that makes this year’s comparisons easier, retailers will be hoping that anything announced by the Chancellor this year does not add further to their cost of doing business nor dent consumers’ sentiment, which already seems to have fallen from the highs at the end of summer.”