UK poll tracker: Andy Burnham opens up biggest lead since general election after 100 days in office

Labour continues to increase its lead in the polls as the party sees its highest ratings of this parliament, according to a new survey.

The latest figures from Ipsos show that Andy Burnham’s party is now eight points clear of the Conservatives for voting intention, at 32 points to 24. Reform UK is placed third on 20 points in the poll.

The result comes on the eve of the prime minister’s 100 day anniversary in the post, and only shortly before the decisive first Autumn Budget under his leadership.

It also marks another major pollster to put Reform UK in third place. The decline in support will come as a blow to leader Nigel Farage, whose party saw a near-18 month stint as the UK’s most popular from March 2025 to August this year.

The severe downturn in public support for the party has coincided with spike in approval for Labour following Mr Burnham’s appointment.

An aggregate of recent polls collected by The Independent now puts the governing party on 28 per cent, with Reform on a downward trend at 22 per cent, and the Conservatives steadily rising at 21 per cent.

These figures mark almost a reversal of the picture in May, when Labour saw record-low support at the local elections as the party sat at around 20 per cent approval compared to Reform’s 27.

While Mr Farage’s party saw record results at the contests, it has since been mired by a major fallout over donations, allegations of racism against some of its members, and the rising threat of Rupert Lowe’s Restore Britain party to its right.

At the same time, there been a steady uptick in support for the Conservatives over the same period, up from 19 to 21 per cent.

Recent figures from YouGov also indicate that Mr Burnham may be winning back voters who may have previously turned away from it under the leadership of Sir Keir Starmer.

Only 49 per cent of former Labour voters said they would support the party when the former prime minister stood down in June – a figure that has risen to 64 per cent in the latest poll.

There has also been a notable boost among 18 to 24-year-olds under Mr Burnham, with support rising from 14 per cent to 32 per cent over the same time period. By comparison, only 7 per cent of 18 to 24-year-olds would vote Reform.

The latest figures come after Labour recorded a victory in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election earlier this month, dealing a blow to Greens leader Zack Polanski who was contesting the seat for his party.

Although the Greens challenged Labour’s majority in the seat, the party ultimately fell over 3,000 votes short of securing victory.

Mr Polanski’s party has also been struggling nationally in the polls, becoming the least popular of the top five leading parties at 10 per cent approval. This is just below the Lib Dems, who are sitting at 11 per cent.

The turnaround has prompted calls for Mr Burnham to call an early general election, with Labour now record its highest level of support since early 2025.

The prime minister has said that he wants to move away from the idea, telling ITV’s Good Morning Britain on Monday: “There is no election coming anytime soon. People may as well just put that out of their mind.”

However, Tory leader Kemi Badenoch and Lib Dem leader Ed Davey have both indicated that they are making preparations for the possibility, as support for Labour continues to rise.

The Independent's chart combines data from leading pollsters into a smoothed trend line to track public opinion over time.