Probability Theory proven the best in Pools Handicap

It would have been hard to outdazzle Evaporate’s win in the day’s feature, the Group 3 Five Diamonds (1,800m) at Rosehill Gardens on Nov 7, but Singapore somehow managed to have its own moment in the Sydney sun a few hours earlier.

Three races earlier, an A$160,000 (S$145,000) Benchmark 78 race over 1,400m named as the Singapore Pools Handicap saw another thriller with $56 outsider Probability Theory pegging back race leader Rose Aye (Coriah Keatings) in the concluding stages.

Fittingly, the winner was ridden by a jockey who may not have often plied his trade in Singapore but whose name still sits high on the honour roll at the now-defunct Kranji racecourse.

Tommy Berry only flew in for whistlestops at the Singapore Turf Club’s marquee meetings, but remarkably landed the spoils in three of their biggest Group 1s – Tropaios in the 2013 Singapore Gold Cup (2,200m), and Dan Excel in the last two Singapore Airlines International Cups (2,000m) in 2014 and 2015.

Probability Theory, a handy Hong Kong-owned Microphone four-year-old mare who was recording her fifth win from nine starts for Wyong-based French tainer Nacim Dilmi, was to be the first leg of a very prolific day at the office for Berry.

The Australian 35-year-old, who often pays tribute to his late twin jockey-brother Nathan, who tragically died of a rare disease during a riding stint at Kranji in 2014, again rode like a man inspired.

The Singapore Pools Handicap win may well have been a good omen to a four-timer which certainly held a close candle to the Five Diamonds.

The other three winners were all hot favourites, Lazzura ($7) in the Group 2 Hot Danish Stakes (1,400m), Agatha ($10) and Horseshoe Hill ($8).

To add another layer to the Singapore revival, Agatha is prepared by Michael Freedman, the trainer who was instrumental to Berry’s Kranji adventure through Tropaios in 2013.

Dilmi for one was delighted he had booked Berry on Probability Theory.

“A jockey like Tommy, you don’t give too many instructions. You let them do it and they work it out by themselves,” he said.

Berry, who now boasts a 100% strike rate on Probability Theory following their pairing at the then-filly’s maiden win in 2025, went in with some confidence.

“I knew it was important to get a good start. It doesn’t always work out like that, but it did today,” said Berry.

“She got into a great rhythm and she’s always shown she was up to Saturday class.”

For the Pools party who answered their Australian partner Tabcorp’s invitation to Sydney for the second year running after the inaugural Singapore Pools Trophy in 2025, it was yet another Saturday to cherish Down Under.

“It is an honour to see the Singapore Pools Trophy Race return for a second year, this time at the Rosehill Gardens Racecourse in Sydney,” said chief product officer Simon Leong.

“Since we commenced our partnership with Tabcorp back in September 2008, they have been instrumental in bringing a diverse and exciting range of racing content to our customers in Singapore.

“This continued collaboration is a proud reflection of the strong and enduring bond between our organisations, and we look forward to many more years of delivering a world-class racing experience for our customers.”