Tom Fornelli's CFP Vibe Check: Did the Big 12 outsmart everybody?

Every week the CFP Vibe Check tries to put its finger on where things stand in the College Football Playoff race without overreacting to what it just saw, but also probably overreacting to everything it just saw. 

Did the Big 12 outsmart everybody this year?

As the dust settles on Week 6, we saw chaos throughout the land. The Big Ten and SEC have only three undefeated teams remaining between them after No. 1 Texas and No. 6 Alabama both fell in two of the weekend's biggest games. That leaves the SEC with only the soon-to-be No. 1 Georgia Bulldogs. In the Big Ten, No. 7 Indiana and No. 21 UCLA remained undefeated, and I'll definitely have more to say about all of this later.

But right now the Big 12 has as many undefeated teams as those two leagues combined. While the SEC and ACC added a ninth conference game this year (the Big Ten and Big 12 already had been), the Big 12, intentionally or not, created a schedule where last year's conference champion didn't have to play either BYU or Utah during the regular season. Of course BYU and Utah must play, because the Holy War is sacrosanct, but it wasn't scheduled until early November.

It's a schedule that made it possible for the three teams expected to be the best in the Big 12 to remain undefeated for as long as possible. That meant that as long as they kept winning, they'd all be appearing either in or near the top-10 of the College Football Playoff rankings when they started being released.

And everything is going absolutely perfectly for the Big 12 right now. As the Big Ten, SEC and ACC have eaten themselves alive, the league suddenly sits poised to get two teams into the 12-team field. If BYU manages to pull off an upset of Notre Dame next week, there's even a chance the league could get three in, even if it's minuscule due to Tech and Utah's nonconference schedules.

But humor me here for a moment. What if BYU beats Notre Dame, and then Notre Dame beats Miami and finishes 11-1. BYU goes on to finish 11-1 itself, losing on the road to Utah on Nov. 7. Meanwhile, Texas Tech finishes the regular season at 12-0.

The Big 12 championship would be Texas Tech and Utah since the Utes would have the head-to-head over BYU. Now imagine Utah beats Texas Tech in the conference championship. The Utes are in the field.

You have to think an 11-1 BYU with a win over 11-1 Notre Dame is also getting an at-large. The only question at this point would be if a 12-1 Texas Tech whose best win is probably Houston would merit an at-large. It's not a sure thing, but would a 12-1 Power Four school really be passed over for a 9-3 team from the SEC or Big Ten? Probably not, but hey, they are trying to replace conference championship games with a 24-team field, so maybe they'd find this a great way to say conference championships don't matter.

Regardless, it's not impossible. The Big 12 may have outsmarted everybody this year.

Oregon is on the ropes

I am not ready to pronounce Oregon's playoff hopes dead just yet, but I am calling and texting friends and family to let them know it may be time to start saying their goodbyes. No. 21 UCLA beat No. 13 Oregon, 17-15, at Autzen Stadium on Saturday in a game that featured 10 turnovers and so many backup quarterbacks.

Seriously, Dylan Raiola was already starting for the injured Dante Moore, and it turns out that two terrible interceptions and a lost fumble were Dan Lanning's limit with Raiola, because he benched him for Brock Thomas.

Imagine telling an Oregon fan before the season started that before the middle of October they'd be relying on third-string QB Brock Thomas to keep the season alive. They'd have spit their artisan coffee all over their neon green and reflective yellow jersey.

But that's where Oregon was, and unfortunately for the Ducks, Brock could not outduel UCLA's backup QB Ty Dieffenbach. Dieffenbach started the second half after Nico Iamaleava appeared to suffer a left leg injury late in the first half. Dieffenbach mostly handed the ball off, which was mostly enough to get the Bruins the win.

Because, seriously, it's hard to lose when the other team turns the ball over seven times. Two weeks ago I wrote in this column that UCLA could really be the next Indiana, but the 2024 version. The one that beat everybody but the good teams on the schedule. I did not anticipate Oregon being one of the teams it beat. But, hey, maybe Oregon isn't a good team.

The Ducks are now 3-2. They have lost to Oklahoma State and UCLA. They still have to play at Ohio State later this year. It's hard to imagine the Ducks team we've seen for most of the season winning that game. We can't even assume it'll win out in its other six games against Nebraska, Illinois, Northwestern, Michigan, Michigan State or Washington.

Does a 9-3 Oregon get into the field? Possibly, but it would need a lot of help, and the oddsmakers are not bullish on their chances. Oregon entered the weekend with their playoff odds at -105 (51.2%) on DraftKings. They leave the weekend at +300 (25%). Meanwhile, UCLA's improved from +455 (18%) to +105 (48.8%). The Bruins now have the third-best odds in the Big Ten behind Ohio State and Indiana.

Texas put itself in a bind

The following two statements can both be true:

1. Texas is one of the few teams in the country whose playoff chances would still be pretty good even at 9-3.
2. There's very little reason to feel good about Texas even if they are still 4-1 after losing to Oklahoma.

Yes, Texas beat Ohio State earlier this season, but while it was an outstanding result, it's not as though it was an outstanding performance. Ohio State trailed for eight seconds in the game. If you wanted to make the argument that Ohio State lost the game more than Texas won it, I would politely ask you to stop yelling at me, but I also see the merits of your argument. Hell, I might even be inclined to agree with it.

But outside of Week 1 against Texas State, when has Texas looked genuinely impressive? Beating Tennessee 20-17 on the road was a good, gritty win, but it wasn't overwhelming. And when you follow it up with a loss to an Oklahoma team whose offense needs GPS guidance to find the end zone, it doesn't help matters.

Seriously, if you're an Oklahoma fan, you should be thrilled with your 27-24 win. I can't honestly look you in the face and say you played well in victory, but who cares? You won, and you really needed it, and getting it at the expense of your rival feels awesome, especially if it ends up being a win that costs Texas a playoff berth in the end.

From an odds perspective, the loss wasn't a major blow to Texas. They had the fourth-best odds in the country at -700 (87.5%) entering the week, but fell to seventh overall at -450 (81.8%) after losing to Oklahoma. So, you know, you're still on solid ground at the sportsbooks.

I just don't know that those odds match my eye test. Honestly, what's the difference between Texas and Oklahoma at this point? Both teams are way too dependent on their defenses to win games for them right now, and it's hard to win that way week in and week out.

Texas' next three games are at home against Florida, Ole Miss and Mississippi State. They'll be favored in all three, but I'm guessing none of them will be comfortable wins. Then there are road tests against Missouri and LSU, which will likely follow a similar path.

Yeah, 9-3 with a win over Ohio State might be good enough, but are we really so sure Texas is good enough to finish 9-3? I'm not as bullish as the oddsmakers.

On Georgia and Alabama

I genuinely don't have a lot to say about this game from a playoff perspective, other than it felt like watching a playoff game. While the SEC picture appears murkier after the weekend on most campuses, things look rather clear in Athens and Tuscaloosa. These are the two best teams in the league, and they played like it on Saturday night.

I suspect we'll see this matchup at least once more, if not in Atlanta for the SEC Championship, then in a playoff game down the line. And I look forward to it.

Oh, and one fun little note from this game. Despite the loss, Alabama's odds of making the playoffs improved from -400 (80%) to -700 (87.5%). The carnage everywhere else outweighed the damage of adding a loss to the Tide's record.

See? Every game still matters in the expanded playoff era. It's just that others might matter more than yours.

The ACC can't help itself

The ACC did not have a great shot at getting two teams into the College Football Playoff field before this week started. Realistically, its best shot was Miami going undefeated in the regular season and then being upset in the ACC Championship by somebody. I now feel comfortable saying that's the ACC's only path.

Coming into the weekend, Miami had the best odds by far in the league at -1500 (93.8%). The second-best odds in the ACC were SMU at +1000 (9.1%). Like Miami, it had the weekend off, and its odds didn't budge.

If only everybody else had the weekend off.

Pitt lost to North Carolina. Duke lost to Georgia Tech. Virginia Tech lost to a Cal team without its starting QB. Thankfully, Wake Forest beat NC State, and Virginia survived Syracuse, so it wasn't a total disaster, but a lot of damage was done.

Last week Pitt had the third-best odds at +1050 (8.7%). Now the third-best odds belong to Louisville at +2800 (3.4%). Pitt is now at +5000 (2%), Duke is at +6900 (1.4%), and Virginia Tech is at +7400 (1.3%).

If there's good news, it's that Wake Forest climbed to +700 (12.5%), which is better than SMU. The problem there, though, is that SMU ranked 26th overall last week. This week, Wake Forest at +700 ranks, you guess it, 26th. So even if the number improved, there are still 22 other Power Four teams from the Big Ten, Big 12 and SEC ahead of the Deacons.

Week 7 Vibe Shifters

A look ahead to the five games on next week's slate most likely to impact the playoff race

• Notre Dame at BYU
• Ohio State at Indiana
• Alabama at Tennessee
• Missouri at Ole Miss
• Georgia State at James Madison

This week's CFP projection

1. Notre Dame
2. Georgia
3. Miami
4. Ohio State
5. Alabama
6. Indiana
7. Texas
8. Utah
9. Ole Miss
10. Texas Tech
11. UCLA
12. Boise State