Analysts: Trade surplus to narrow as oil prices moderate

Nigeria’s record merchandise trade surplus is expected to narrow over the second half of 2026 as global crude oil prices pull back from their recent peaks, according to economic analysts at Coronation Asset Management.

This was contained in the firm’s Q2 2026 Trade Statistics Report following data released by the National Bureau of Statistics.

The report revealed that external trade strengthened significantly in the second quarter of the year, pushing the nation’s trade surplus to a record high of N12.60tn.

The surge represents a 101.32 per cent year-on-year increase from N6.26tn recorded in Q2 2025 and a 66.85 per cent quarter-on-quarter expansion from N7.55tn in Q1 2026.

According to the report, the sharp improvement in the external position was largely driven by a rally in global crude oil prices following supply disruptions in the Middle East.

Total export earnings climbed to N27.02tn in Q2 2026, with petroleum-related products accounting for 86.2 per cent of the total export basket. Crude oil remained the primary foreign exchange earner at N12.91tn, supported by average Brent crude prices reaching $99.44 per barrel during the quarter, along with a 10.9 per cent quarter-on-quarter increase in domestic production volumes to 1.53m barrels per day.

Meanwhile, total imports rebounded by 5.91 per cent quarter-on-quarter to N14.42tn, driven by increased demand for manufactured goods, raw materials, and agricultural commodities.

• No Nigerian airline made $1m profit, Onyema declares
• Oil output drops 5,000bpd in August amid recovery
• Minister sets up committee to implement housing reforms

Despite the strong performance in Q2, macroeconomists warned that the external balance remains heavily tied to international oil market fluctuations and geopolitics.

In their outlook for the remainder of the year, Coronation analysts stated, “While Q2 delivered Nigeria’s largest quarterly trade surplus on record, the external sector’s continued dependence on a single, geopolitically sensitive commodity means the durability of this position will hinge on developments in the Middle East over the remainder of the year.”

They highlighted that the US Energy Information Administration projects Brent crude to average around $85 per barrel in Q3 2026 and $78 per barrel in Q4 2026 as shipping conditions normalise, which, combined with a broader recovery in import demand, will likely moderate the trade balance.

The report further observed that structural challenges persist within the non-oil sector, as agricultural exports fell by 31.51 per cent quarter-on-quarter to N802.99bn, even as total non-oil exports reached N3.73tn.

On the trade destination front, India, Spain, the Netherlands, the United States, and Togo emerged as Nigeria’s top export partners, while China maintained its position as the dominant source of imports, accounting for 41.02 per cent of total import value.

Although expanding domestic refining capacity continues to ease pressure on foreign exchange by curbing mineral fuel imports, analysts maintain that long-term balance of payments stability will ultimately depend on non-oil export diversification.