Don’t panic about El Niño, South Africa’s fields are more prepared than you think

A powerful El Niño is rapidly developing in the Pacific Ocean, and the World Meteorological Organization now gives it a greater than 90% chance of persisting until at least November, raising the risk of extreme heat, drought, and veld fires across South Africa’s summer rainfall regions.

But according to agricultural economist Wandile Sihlobo, the country is heading into this event from a position it’s genuinely never been in before.

The record no one saw coming

South Africa’s 2025/26 summer grain and oilseed harvest hit a record 21.49 million tonnes, according to the latest Crop Estimates Committee figures, driven by expanded planting areas and strong yields.

It’s the country’s largest-ever harvest of its kind, and it’s landing at almost the exact moment El Niño starts tightening its grip.

Why that record actually matters for the months ahead

Sihlobo says the timing works in farmers’ favour in more ways than one.

“When the planting period starts in October 2026, farmers across South Africa will have better-than-normal soil moisture to begin with,” he explained, pointing to successive wet seasons that also lifted dam levels for irrigation farmers and left the country’s grazing veld in fair condition for livestock producers.

He was careful to note that rainfall timing will still determine how well the new season’s crops actually develop, and that El Niño-linked drought conditions will likely raise production costs regardless.

But he framed this as fundamentally different from past drought cycles, purely because of how strong the country’s starting position is this time.

Eish, it’s quite hopeful thinking South Africa might ride out this El Niño on the back of a record we broke almost by accident.

Do you think this record harvest will be enough to soften whatever El Niño throws at us this summer?