[Rappler Investigates] Eyes on 2028

Clearly, early satisfaction and trust ratings show a consistent front-runner in the person of the Vice President, but as historical data show, the 2028 presidency is far from being in the bag

AT A GLANCE

• As the year progresses, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has announced investigations into his cousin Martin Romualdez, linked to budget irregularities and public fund diversions.
• Romualdez faces plunder and money laundering complaints, with ongoing investigations revealing extensive properties tied to him and his associates.
• Rappler has published numerous investigative stories in 2026 on various issues, including corruption, drug trade, and national security threats, while also emphasizing the importance of supporting independent media.

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If you’re among the avid partisans who think 2028 is a lost cause if Vice President Sara Duterte is not convicted in her impeachment trial, think again.

True, recent surveys show an enduring voter preference for the Vice President over other foreseeable presidential contenders despite what the impeachment trial has unmasked. But our researcher Shay Du reminds us there are historical trends in Philippine political surveys that can serve as a cautionary tale.

Shay tracked survey results of the top 2 pollsters, Social Weather Stations and Pulse Asia, in the past five presidential elections starting 1998 all the way to 2022. She compared early pre-election survey results with final election outcomes and found that four out of five early survey front-runners faltered and eventually lost on the day that mattered the most.

The lone exception was former actor Joseph Estrada, who led in pre-election surveys and still emerged victorious in the 1998 presidential contest and then was ousted barely two years into his presidency. The rest — like Fernando Poe Jr. (2004), Manny Villar (2010), Jojo Binay, owing to corruption allegations, and Grace Poe due to citizenship questions (2016), and Sara Duterte who slid to the vice presidency (2022) — lost to eventual winners. Strictly speaking, however, Sara did not “lose” but gave up her slot.

Those who ended up conquering the presidency were Gloria Macapagal Arroyo amid cheating allegations (2004), Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino III, whose political stars rose after the death of his mother Cory (2010), Rodrigo Duterte, who kept on denying he would run for president until the very last minute (2016), and Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr., who probably would not have won had Sara, the front-runner, not nodded to their alliance.

What lessons do the past five presidential elections teach us? 

• Early voter preferences are not immune to shock emanating from negativity like corruption allegations, or emotional sympathy or empathy, or even a surprise, unifying candidate
• Consolidation of what is perceived to be a weak and fragmented opposition is key
• A well-oiled campaign machinery efficiently run with sufficient resources, both financial and manpower, will deliver the votes
• Social media shapes perception on the ground and ultimately the behavior of voters

The ongoing impeachment trial of Sara Duterte can either win her sympathy votes and consolidate her supporters, or get fence-sitters and wait-and-see spectators agitated enough to vote against her. The competing narratives continue to be shaped to this day by both the prosecution and the defense.

Obviously the end goal is 2028, depending on which side the opposing parties are on. For the prosecution, it’s stopping what appears to be an imminent Sara Duterte presidency, if survey standings today are to be the sole gauge, and for the defense, it’s clearing roadblocks to make sure the path to 2028 is well paved and the Duterte family brand is protected and preserved.

Clearly, early satisfaction and trust ratings show a consistent front-runner in the person of the Vice President, but as historical data show, the 2028 presidency is far from being in the bag.

While public attention may appear focused on the Senate impeachment trial, critical hearings on the national budget are ongoing simultaneously. These are technical and tedious, even boring, that’s why they merit scant public attention. But we forget that it’s when citizens aren’t looking that corrupt deeds go unnoticed.

The budget process involves the allocation of precious public funds whose wastage has far-reaching harm as we have seen in the projects of the Department of Public Works and Highways (DPWH) plagued by corruption. 

But recently, owing to the Duterte impeachment trial, attention has also been drawn to the allocation of confidential funds. Here are some stories on the topic worth reading:

• Why did DOJ’s confidential funds balloon by nearly tenfold in 2025?
• Marcos gov’t seeks P10.773 billion in confidential, intel funds for 2027
• How Sara Duterte broke rules on confidential funds — again and again
• ‘Funny’ names in confidential funds receipts not issue for COA – Sara Duterte’s defense
• Beyond Sara: Confidential funds run deep in local governments

The challenge for budget watchers is to be eagle-eyed especially in areas that tend to be overlooked or cloaked in secrecy. Now that attention has veered towards confidential and intelligence allocations, along with flood control projects, expect that funds will be tucked elsewhere, if not called something else, achieving the same objective of stealing from national coffers. 

For instance, the detested “allocables” we heard from the DPWH, or funds that can be allocated to lawmakers for “insertions” in the budget are now referred to as “leadership funds”. Kaya ’nyo yun? (Can you dig that?)

Watching over public money can never be one sector’s job, certainly not regulatory agencies like the Commission on Audit’s alone. It will take a collective effort, but each one of us needs to first understand how the budget process works. Do you?

Till Thursday after next. Let’s continue monitoring the impeachment trial and the budget.

– Rappler.com

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