Can diplomacy prevent an Ethiopia-Eritrea war as Tigray gets a new administration?

Ethiopia's Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed on Friday announced an interim government in the country's northern Tigray region and gave it six months to prepare for regional elections and restore stability.

Abiy's announcement followed a military offensive launched in September by the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) and six other armed groups. They were ultimately forced to retreat and lost control of the region.

"To attain the peace that has long eluded them, to secure their right to self-administration, ​and to finally enjoy the fruits of development — which have been out of reach for many years — the people of Tigray must break free from this cycle ⁠of conflict," ​Abiy said in a statement posted on X.

Shishay Amare, the new mayor of the regional capital Mekelle, said: "Our role is to create the right conditions for elections by ensuring peace and stability across Tigray," reported French news agency Agence France-Presse (AFP).

"I am confident that this will be done within six months, according to our plan," Amare said, adding that their priorities included restoring peace, helping displaced residents return home, reopening markets and ensuring humanitarian assistance reached those in need.

Why relations with Eritrea matter

The fighting has revived concerns about a return to the devastating 2020–2022 Tigray war. Around 1 million people remain displaced from that conflict. The African Union has estimated that the war resulted in around 600,000 deaths from combat, famine and the collapse of healthcare.

The new administration faces unresolved disputes over political authority and territory, including western Tigray, which is claimed by both Tigray and neighboring Amhara state. 

Ethiopia and Eritrea were once bitter enemies but signed a peace agreement in 2018. Eritrean forces later fought alongside Ethiopian federal troops during the Tigray war. The countries' relationship has since deteriorated.

Addis Ababa accuses Asmara of supporting Tigrayan forces and violating Ethiopian territory. Eritrea has denied the accusations.

Reports of Eritrean troop movements near the border have heightened concern, although the extent of any current deployment remains disputed.

Tsedale Lemma, journalist and publisher of the prominent Addis Standard magazine, told DW earlier this month that the danger reflects years of unresolved tensions and failures to implement the November 2022 Pretoria Agreement, which ended the previous Tigray war.

Asked whether the international community was underestimating the threat, Lemma said: "It is absolutely underestimating it." She argued that international actors had failed to ensure effective monitoring of the agreement and respond adequately as the peace process weakened.

A wider regional risk

The confrontation comes amid instability across the Horn of Africa, including Sudan's war and tensions between Ethiopia and Egypt over the Nile mega-dam project.

Why northern Ethiopia is seeing growing violence once again

Last year, Ethiopia inaugurated the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), a move that was not well received by neighboring Egypt and Sudan, both downstream countries. 

Competition over access to the Red Sea adds another strategic dimension: Ethiopia became landlocked when Eritrea gained independence in 1993. 

Journalist Martin Plaut, who specializes in the Horn of Africa, has warned that the region faces a crossroads. He has raised the possibility of Ethiopian forces entering Eritrea, but an invasion remains a scenario, not a confirmed decision by the Ethiopian government.

Any wider conflict could threaten regional trade and maritime security. The Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait connect shipping routes between Europe and Asia, making the region strategically important well beyond Africa.

Can diplomacy avert war between Ethiopia and Eritrea?

The United States and the United Kingdom have called on Ethiopia and Eritrea to exercise restraint and return to dialogue under their 2018 peace framework.

Speaking to reporters at Joint Base Andrews on Saturday, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned that the military buildup on the Ethiopia-Eritrea border could escalate into a wider conflict.

Rubio said Washington hoped lifting some sanctions would improve communication with both sides and stressed the need for a "wise and measured" response to avoid a broader regional war.

A UK government spokesperson said in an October 15 statement that: "We urgently call for de-escalation and a return to dialogue. We reiterate our support for the African Union's role in facilitating this."

For now, the recapture of towns in Tigray has changed the military balance but has not resolved the tensions surrounding the region.

Whether international pressure can prevent a wider war will depend on whether the governments involved choose dialogue over further escalation.

Negash Mohammed, Tamirat Geleta and Christine Mhundwa contributed to this report.