[Interview] ‘The beginning of the end’: MAGA-whispering pollster says Trump may not finish his term

US President Donald Trump speaks in the White House press room on Nov. 9, 2026. (Reuters/Yonhap)

A pollster known for his uncanny sense of how the winds are blowing inside Donald Trump’s MAGA movement calls this “the beginning of the end” of the Trump era, raising the possibility that the US president could be impeached and removed from office.

 The pollster, Rich Baris, says some Republicans are already arguing that the party would be better off if Vice President JD Vance took over from Trump early so that he can enter the 2028 presidential election with the incumbent’s advantage. With Republican politicians in crisis, Baris believes they are increasingly likely to turn against the president.

 “I think this is the beginning of the end, and it actually pains me to say it out loud,” said Baris, who heads US polling firm Big Data Poll, in a telephone interview with the Hankyoreh on Monday. Baris was speaking about the Republicans’ crushing defeat in the Nov. 3 midterm elections.

 “He always made a comeback,” Baris said of Trump. “He was always able to resurrect himself when people thought he was left for dead. But this time is different.”

 “When you’re no longer acting as their champion, and you — look, let’s just use the word — when you betray them, that’s different, and that broke the bond.”

 Baris, who has publicly acknowledged that he voted for Trump in all three presidential elections (2016, 2020 and 2024), is a prominent pollster within the MAGA movement. Since the 2016 election, he has demonstrated a knack for spotting support for Trump that other polling organizations failed to catch.

 He attracted attention in 2016 by correctly predicting that Trump would win 306 electoral votes and cemented that reputation by accurately forecasting Trump’s 312 electoral votes in 2024.

 In his final nationwide poll on generic congressional voting before the midterms this year, Baris projected that Democrats would lead Republicans 52.3% to 40.0%, a margin of 12.3 percentage points. That was close to the estimated popular vote margin of 12.8 points.

 Even as some conservatives downplayed predictions of a Republican rout, Baris was warning that the party was headed to a bloodbath.

 Shortly after the election, Vance wrote on social media that “another pollster — one of the smartest people I know in politics, told me yesterday we’d lose the generic ballot by 13 points.”

 When asked whether Vance had been referring to him, Baris demurred.

 “I can’t answer that. I honestly don’t know,” he said, before acknowledging that the figures do “sound familiar.”

Big Data Poll’s Rich Baris. (courtesy Baris)

 Trump in peril if Democrats win 55 Senate seats

 In an interview with The New Yorker published on Oct. 16, Baris warned that Trump might not finish his term if the Democrats secured 55 Senate seats. He stood by that prediction in his interview with the Hankyoreh.

 The Democrats have now secured at least 54 Senate seats, including independents who caucus with the party, and could increase their total to as many as 56 depending on the results of ongoing vote counts in Alaska and Mississippi.

 “I’ve already had multiple elected Republicans say out loud what they never would have said before, which is [. . .] it may be better if we run with JD as an incumbent,” Baris said, referring to the vice president. “I’ve never heard an elected Republican say that out loud before.”

 Baris thinks that Vance’s prospects would be better if he takes over from Trump early and runs for president in 2028. He cautioned, however, that incumbency does not guarantee victory, citing the example of Gerald Ford, who succeeded Richard Nixon after his resignation but went on to lose the 1976 presidential election.

 Democratic leaders have pledged sweeping investigations of alleged corruption within the Trump administration when they assume control of Congress in January, but have so far equivocated about whether they mean to impeach the president.

 Baris argued that the Democrats, rather than moving against the president immediately as they did after the 2018 midterms, would adopt a flanking strategy of targeting his closest allies and dragging down his approval ratings.

 “I actually am not speaking out of a guess here. I actually do know this,” he said.

 “It’s going to be more like death by a thousand cuts,” Baris said, predicting that Democrats would target Trump’s closest allies, including Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

 “We’ll investigate this one. We’ll introduce articles of impeachment against that one, and little by little, they’ll just hurt Trump more and more and more,” he said.

 Baris predicted that Democrats will not make their move until Trump’s approval rating falls into the low 30s.

 The pollster also emphasized that Trump’s political standing now is much different from what it was after the 2018 midterms.

 “The problem they had in ‘18 is that 46, 47 percent of the country still loved him,” he explained, noting that “Trump’s approval in a lot of these states was above water.”

 “This was not the case this time. He was underwater everywhere. He was unpopular everywhere.”

 After retaking the House in the 2018 midterms, Democrats impeached Trump the following year but failed to secure the votes necessary for removal in his 2020 Senate trial.

 This time, Baris predicted, Democrats would wait until Trump’s approval ratings had fallen far enough to make impeachment politically viable.

 “Let’s say if his approval on Real Clear Politics was 32 percent, then they’ll go after him,” he said.

 “Mark my words. That’s what they’ll do,” Baris added. “It’s a smarter plan. It really is.”

 Under the US Constitution, removing a president from office requires the support of two-thirds of senators present at an impeachment trial. Assuming all 100 senators attend, 67 votes are needed. That means that even with 55 or 56 seats, Democrats would still need 11 or 12 Republican senators to side with them.

 Baris believes enough Republican senators could defect because of the enemies Trump has made within his own party.

 Early in his term, Trump backed establishment Republican John Thune for Senate majority leader over pro-Trump Rick Scott, a decision that Baris believes deprived him of crucial support during legislative battles.

 Trump subsequently clashed with veteran Republican senators including Thom Tillis, Bill Cassidy and John Cornyn, arousing further resentment within the party.

 Tillis announced that he would not seek reelection after opposing a major Trump legislative initiative, while both Cassidy and Cornyn lost Republican primaries to challengers endorsed by Trump.

 “There’s going to be one or two friends of Bill Cassidy and one or two friends of John Cornyn or one or two friends of Thom Tillis who are going to be mad. They are mad, and they’re going to want payback for what happened,” Baris said.

 One potential defector, Baris, said, is Sen. Lisa Murkowski, a prominent moderate Republican and Trump critic.

 According to Baris, Murkowski has said on multiple occasions, including in private, that “if the balance of power is at stake,” she might “switch to an independent and caucus as a Democrat.”

“Susan Collins went down in Maine. [. . .] If you think for a second Lisa Murkowski wouldn’t vote to convict Donald Trump, you’re crazy,” he added. 

Baris added that once Trump’s approval falls into the low 30% range, the mood will get “very hairy,” predicting that Republicans who “aren’t loyal” and are “spineless” and feel that their political survival is on the line, led by Murkowski, will take part in impeachment proceedings against Trump. “Democrats will easily find those votes,” he said. 

Epstein and Iran: Trump betrays supporters

Baris pointed to the controversy over the handling of the Epstein files and the Iran war as the decisive reasons the once-solid Trump coalition collapsed so quickly. He likened the Epstein controversy to a jab in boxing, and the Iran war to the power punch that landed the decisive blow. 

In his account, the first crack in the base’s trust appeared when Trump brushed off supporters demanding the release of files related to the prolific sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, saying, “If you care about the Epstein issue, I don’t want your support anymore.” The bond then broke when he went ahead with airstrikes on Iran, and later a full-scale war, both of which his base had opposed.

Baris was particularly critical of Trump’s decision to enter a full-on war with Iran over the supposed nuclear threat it posed a mere eight months after he had claimed that the US had completely destroyed Iran’s nuclear facilities with a series of bombings. 

“It was the biggest insult to voters’ intelligence I’ve ever witnessed in politics,” he said. 

He went on to recall conservative commentator Rush Limbaugh’s warning that no force — not the FBI, the media, the deep state, nor the Democratic Party — could break the bond between Trump and those who voted for him “as long as his voters believed that he was their champion.”

Trump didn’t just break promises to resist the ruling class and war lobbies, and not start a new war in the Middle East and pursue a domestic agenda. “It was more than just a politician that doesn’t deliver,” Baris said. “It felt like a personal betrayal.”

Indeed, the fact that Democrat Senator-elect Roy Cooper won 22% of voters who had cast their ballots for Trump in 2024 in North Carolina was “a punishment” of Trump by his supporters in the eyes of Baris. 

Baris applauded Vance’s lengthy post to social media following the election rout, pointing out that voters wanted four things from the Republicans — end the war in Iran, focus on cost of living and inflation, “put America first,” and change the US’ relationship with Israel. 

“The voter on the right who feels betrayed was waiting for someone to stand up and defend them,” he said. 

“What [Vance] did was very courageous,” he added, noting that it happened to be “factually right as well.”

He also commended Trump’s decision to name his loyal adviser Stephen Miller as the new White House chief of staff. “I like Stephen. I like the idea of Dana White, too, as the press secretary,” he said, even questioning why Trump “didn’t do that first.” 

While Miller may be able to stop the base from hemorrhaging any further, Baris predicted, it won’t be easy to regain trust that has already been lost. 

“Donald Trump is entering the lame duck phase. He will not get much done,” he said, noting that “the Congress isn’t moving.”

Baris left open the possibility of Trump working with the Democrats during his remaining two years in office. 

“Trump didn’t win because he had traditional Republican ideas; he had a much more populist platform,” he said. The pollster suggested that Trump could and should work with Democrats on policies that have widespread support, such as cutting prescription drug prices and focusing on infrastructure buildout. 

At the same time, he warned that if Democrats initiate investigations into the administration now that they’ve taken control of Congress, it “poisons the well and it ruins relationships.”

“He won’t work with them if they do that,” Baris said. 

Trump may go, but America First is here to stay

Trump the individual may be receding from the political scene, but that does not mean that his America First politics will, Baris said. 

“‘Does this put American citizens first?’ That is the most popular idea we have ever polled,” he said. “That’s not going to go away.”

“The MAGA brand of America First is badly wounded. It has lost the trust of the American voter,” he added. 

In his view, the real division in American politics today is not left vs. right, but “haves vs. have-nots.” Both the Democratic and Republican parties have been captured by powerful lobbies that represent the interests of the establishment, and distrust of both parties is growing, especially among younger generations.

“The era of performative politics is over,” he said. “This is transactional now.”

“It’s going to be the right-wing economic populist nationalist message, or it’s going to be the left-wing, which ends up turning into Marxism,” he predicted. In his book, “Burn it Down,” he describes this structure as one of “MAGA or Mamdani.”

Referencing Cenk Uygur, the co-founder of the liberal online outlet The Young Turks, Baris said that a figure like him is going to “end up on the right” without even realizing it and take the new right-wing coalition beyond the right-left divide. 

He went on to predict that there’s no returning to the mainstream Republican Party of the past, mentioning “the Republican RINO establishment types like Karl Rove and Mike Pence.” “Whoever can articulate that vision the best is who will carry the flag forward,” he said. 

As for 2028, Baris strongly protested the idea that Secretary of State Marco Rubio could win the White House. 

“He doesn’t do his job as secretary of state and negotiate peace deals,” he said. “He’s done this little cowardly maneuver where he tries to let all the negative stuff roll onto JD Vance.”

“People know that he’s a neocon. This little chameleon act isn’t working,” the pollster said, predicting that Rubio would get “crushed by at least 10 or 15 million votes. “He has no chance to put together a coalition that could win the Rust Belt,” he added. 

On the Democratic side, Baris expects progressives to make significant gains. Pointing to progressive Abdul El-Sayed’s victory in Michigan’s Senate race, he said it “has completely destroyed the long-standing argument from the Democratic establishment that these DSA guys can’t win.” 

“They never said we have better ideas. They said you can’t win with these guys, and now that myth has been shattered,” he said. “So the Democratic Party’s got a big problem on their hands.” 

Baris argues that the Democratic establishment used the same argument to make Hillary Clinton the party’s nominee in 2016 and Joe Biden in 2020. In the 2028 Democratic presidential primary, Baris expects the progressive wing to make major gains, and he sees Sen. Jon Ossoff, who has solid support among Black voters in the South and room to move toward a progressive agenda, emerging as a front-runner. 

He noted that Black voters have gained influence since the Democrats moved the start of their nominating contest to the South. 

“The nomination runs straight through the South with Black voters,” he said, calling Ossoff “probably the leading contender right now” because “he proved he can win a perennial battleground state very easily with the support of non-white voters.” Ossoff won reelection in Georgia, and Baris said that although he has “cultivated a more moderate image,” he “can easily pivot to a more progressive platform,” which will give him an edge in the 2028 primary. 

The Democrats have held their first primary in South Carolina since 2024 and have decided to keep it first in 2028.