Melaka polls can’t be benchmark for GE16, says analyst

An analyst has opposed a former MP’s call for parties to go solo in the Nov 14 Melaka polls to gauge their strength before the next general election (GE16).

Akademi Nusantara’s Azmi Hassan said the state election, involving 28 seats, would not be an accurate benchmark for GE16 as it would not reflect parties’ support at the national level.

A low voter turnout would render the Melaka polls’ results all the more irrelevant to GE16 planning, he added.

“Therefore, using Melaka as a yardstick (for GE16) would be unrealistic,” he told FMT.

On Wednesday, former Umno leader Puad Zarkashi said the major players appeared to be struggling to agree on alliances for the Melaka election on Nov 14.

He said parties going solo would allow them to gauge their actual strength and enter GE16 negotiations more humbly and realistically.

Barisan Nasional (BN) previously stated its intention to cooperate with Perikatan Nasional (PN) in Melaka, following their alliance’s convincing victory in the Aug 1 Negeri Sembilan polls.

However, the Umno-led coalition opened the door to talks with Pakatan Harapan (PH) and dragged its feet in confirming an alliance with PAS-led PN.

PAS president Abdul Hadi Awang nonetheless claimed that PAS and BN had agreed in principle to join forces in Melaka.

PH, meanwhile, has been linked to speculation of a pact with Bersatu, which fell out of favour in PN but remains a component of the opposition coalition.

Azmi said the political landscape following the 2022 general election made alliances necessary because no single party had secured enough seats to form the federal government.

“No party would want to take the risk of going solo (and splitting votes) if an opportunity for cooperation exists.”

Lau Zhe Wei of International Islamic University Malaysia said going solo in the Melaka polls was not the solution to deadlocks in seat negotiations.

He said multi-cornered fights would not accurately represent the wishes of voters due to Malaysia’s first-past-the-post system, where victors might not necessarily obtain the support of the majority of constituents due to vote-splitting.

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