How gas prices became a lightning rod for voter anger ahead of the US midterms

On every major road across America, in cities and towns, on highways to the mountains, the parks and the beaches, there are gas stations – 196,000 stations and retail outlets.

And since February 28, those gas stations have been sending a message to the 242 million Americans with registered driver licenses that the cost of filling up their tanks has exploded, and it’s thanks to President Donald Trump’s decision to attack Iran over its nuclear program and sponsorship of terrorism worldwide.

It hurts. Amid a cost of living crisis that is seeing the cost of groceries, utilities and other essentials skyrocket, more than 50% of Americans are also having a tough time filling their tanks.

Given the high visibility and ubiquity of the shocking prices for gas, its cost per gallon is literally the poster child of the affordability crisis.

And there are aftershocks. More than 70% of all freight goods in the United States are transported by trucks, and more than 70% of trucks use diesel fuel.

At the heart of the affordability crisis afflicting American households is inflation – and everything delivered by trucks carries an inflation bump. But every other component of affordability pressures adds to the misery of higher prices and costs on food, fuel, housing, payments on debt, mortgages and loans.

Trump is ultra-sensitive – to a degree – on the cost of petrol. He remembers the Arab oil embargo of 1973-74 in the wake of the Yom Kippur War. Oil prices quadrupled. There were shortages and rationing. Gas stations that had supply were swamped by lines of cars awaiting the bowser.

Trump surely knows the energy crisis hurt then-President Richard Nixon and lessened his political capital as he faced the Watergate scandal that ultimately ended his presidency.

The current president understands that, but he never acknowledges the scope of the harm that swamps households across the country. Trump regularly claims high gas prices are an “inexpensive price to pay” for the Iran war and its goal of obliterating Iran’s nuclear weapons program.

So if there is one singular piece of kryptonite that is hurting his presidency, it is the price of gas.

This damage to Trump’s standing is further compounded by what he says to American voters – and especially to his own base – to demonstrate his confidence that the worst will be over soon.

Eight months is not a “forever war” that goes for over a decade, as with Vietnam, Afghanistan and Iraq. But it sure feels like a forever war, because it is clearly apparent to the American people that the Iran war will not end any time soon.

The war was unpopular from the beginning, with only 40% approving of Trump’s decision to attack Iran in February. It is the first time in American history that a major war was not supported by a majority of Americans.

Trump has repeatedly said the Iranians want to make a deal, but a final deal never materialises. The April truce lasted four days. The June ceasefire and memorandum of understanding lasted just three weeks. The war has since expanded from Iran, to Lebanon and the Persian Gulf states attacked by Iran, and to the missiles lobbed by the Houthis in Yemen toward Saudi Arabia.

Trump has not delivered victory, but a regional war that has inflicted substantial damage and will undercut the prosperity of Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar. As a result, it will also affect a portion of global economic strength for years to come.

Trump has frequently promised that as the Iran war comes to an end, sooner rather than later, the price of oil will “drop like a rock”.

But what he is angling to face is the final reckoning of the war. Trump has stated his intentions to bring the war to a close – but not before the midterm elections.

White House and military sources have briefed the media on the prospect Trump will want to deploy the “mother of all bombs” to completely destroy Iran’s military capabilities.

In his September address to the United Nations, Trump was clearer on the choice he will make.

I have a big decision to make. Will a deal be made with Iran that lets them rebuild and create a far greater country than it ever was before? Or do I annihilate the Islamic Republic and do it quickly, never giving them a chance to kill and destroy people and countries again?

Public opinion on these matters is clear. Americans are fearful of any further extension of the war, and they believe Trump made the wrong decision in going to war. Nearly three quarters (71%) of voters, according to Fox News, believe Trump does not have a plan to end the war.

Concern about gas prices is on par with government corruption, inflation, government leadership and health care. But it is an issue that tens and tens of millions of Americans see every day.

In these last days before the midterm elections, Trump is underwater in his approval rating with Americans in 40 of the 50 states.

What is dropping like a rock is not the price of gasoline, but confidence in the president.