UK poll tracker: Reform still behind Conservatives as Labour’s lead grows

Reform UK continues to lag behind Labour and the Conservatives, according to a new poll that has put the party in third place for a second consecutive week.

The findings from YouGov will come as a blow to leader Nigel Farage, whose party saw a near-18 month stint as the UK’s most popular from March 2025 to August this year.

Based on results taken between 18 and 19 October, the respected pollster put Labour three points clear of the Conservatives, and four points clear of Reform.

The severe downturn in public support for the party has coincided with spike in approval for Labour following the coronation of Andy Burnham as leader and prime minister.

An aggregate of recent polls collected by The Independent now puts the governing party on 27 per cent, with Reform on a downward trend at 22 per cent, and the Conservatives steadily rising at 21 per cent.

These figures mark almost a reversal of the picture in May when Labour saw record-low support at the local elections as the party sat at around 20 per cent approval compared to Reform’s 27.

While Mr Farage’s party saw record results at the contests, it has since been mired by a major fallout over donations, allegations of racism against some of its members, and the rising threat of Rupert Lowe’s Restore Britain party to its right.

At the same time, there been a steady uptick in support for the Conservatives over the same period, up from 19 to 21 per cent.

The YouGov figures also indicate that Mr Burnham may be winning back voters who may have previously turned away from it under the leadership of Sir Keir Starmer.

Only 49 per cent of former Labour voters said they would support the party when the former prime minister stood down in June – a figure that has risen to 64 per cent in the latest poll.

There has also been a notable boost among 18 to 24-year-olds under Mr Burnham, with support rising from 14 per cent to 32 per cent over the same time period. By comparison, only 7 per cent of 18 to 24-year-olds would vote Reform.

The latest figures come after Labour recorded a victory in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election earlier this month, dealing a blow to Greens leader Zack Polanski who was contesting the seat for his party.

Although the Greens challenged Labour’s majority in the seat, the party ultimately fell over 3,000 votes short of securing victory.

Mr Polanski’s party has also been struggling nationally in the polls, becoming the least popular of the top five leading parties at 10 per cent approval. This is just below the Lib Dems which are sitting at 11 per cent.

The turnaround has prompted calls for Mr Burnham to call an early general election, with Labour now record its highest level of support since early 2025.

While the prime minister has said he wants to “knock dead” the idea, Tory leader Kemi Badenoch and Lib Dem leader Ed Davey have both indicated that they are making preparations for the possibility.

The Independent's chart combines data from leading pollsters into a smoothed trend line to track public opinion over time.