Reform could slip to third in polls, pollsters warn as Farage’s popularity plummets over scandals

Reform UK is heading for third place in the polls and is being dragged down by its leader Nigel Farage, leading polling experts have said.

Labour’s Burnham ‘bounce’ has already seen the party leapfrog Reform in a number of national polls, while the Conservatives’ recovery could see it do the same, they said.

The forecast will come as a blow to the party, which topped the polls for more than a year until Andy Burnham entered Downing Street, and Mr Farage himself, who on Friday secured his seat in Parliament again with victory in the Clacton by-election. However, he could still be forced to fight for his political future if a restarted parliamentary investigation triggers another vote.

Peter Kellner, former president of polling company YouGov, told The Independent: “Assuming nothing substantially changes and events take their course in the normal way, I wouldn't be surprised if Reform sometime next year or the end of this year are in third place behind both Labour and the Conservatives.”

Tory peer and leading expert on polls Lord Hayward said: “There is no question in my mind that they've been surpassed by Labour already, and I'm quite surprised how fast they're falling and that they might be surpassed by the Tories in the near future as well.”

Reform’s slide began earlier this year, before Mr Burnham entered No 10, Mr Kellner said. Farage and Reform “started sinking together,” he said, which was “not surprising, because he is personally so closely identified with Reform that it would be surprising if their numbers didn't rise and fall in parallel.”

Mr Farage has had a turbulent few months in which he has struggled to explain a £5m ‘gift’ from a party donor and cryptobillionaire.

Under strict Commons rules, new MPs are required to register gifts worth more than £300 received in the previous 12 months, except where it “could not be reasonably thought by others” to relate to their political activities .

Mr Farage has repeatedly denied wrongdoing and said that he was not required to register the £5m because it was purely personal. But if the parliamentary probe finds against him, it could trigger a second by-election.

Mr Kellner said opinion polls showed the “softness” of the Reform vote. “As for the story so far on that, in very round numbers, it seems to me that for every point the Conservatives climb, Reform has lost two. So Reform is clearly losing some people back to the Conservatives, but they're also losing some back to Labour and now to Restore.”

He said he was “not sure” there was anything Reform could do to arrest the slide.

The party appeared to be occupying the role that the Lib Dems used to play “of being the repository of protest votes in mid-term”, he said. But, unlike the Lib Dems, their vote is not concentrated, but spread out across the country, meaning that, under a certain level of national support it is harder for them to win seats in Parliament.

Lord Hayward said Reform were tied “in a way that no other party is tied to the ratings of the leader.”

“It was the announcement of Nigel Farage to be leader in that unbelievable moment in the general election in 2024 and suddenly Reform became a serious contender. And so therefore yes, he has provided the motor for their rise, and unfortunately for Reform, he is currently providing the motor for their decline.”

He added: “I think that Farage is damaged among what I would describe as comfortably middle-class potential Reform voters who have now switched back to the Conservatives, or are not voting, or whatever it may happen to be.”

Luke Tryl told The Independent it was “difficult to know” if the Conservatives could overtake Farage’s party but “the Tories have definitely stabilised themselves and the question now is can Kemi turn her bounce into a party bounce? If she can, Reform are in serious trouble.”

On the question of whether Reform could soon be third in the polls, leading polling expert John Curtice told The Independent: “I think I have already signalled that possibility (but no more than that).”

He added that when it comes to analysing Reform’s slide “you cannot easily distinguish between Reform drop and Conservative gain: given most Reform voters are ex-Tories they tend to be two sides of the same coin.” Reform have been approached for comment.