Warm words on Canada's EU 'associate membership' but no guarantees

Is Canada about to join the EU? Headlines across Europe indicate a lot of confusion right now.

The EU constitution rules that possibility out as Canada is geographically outside Europe.

But in a speech on Thursday to the European Parliament, Canada's Prime Minister Mark Carney said: "Canada and Europe should secure our strategic autonomy through deep cooperation in the full range of strategic capabilities."

Mark Carney was responding – extremely warmly – to an invitation by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen for Canada to become the EU's first associate member.

The EU and Canada already have a far-reaching trade deal (Ceta) in place but Carney insisted additional cooperation on energy and economic security, on critical and raw materials, education, tech and AI innovation, and defence would help safeguard all countries involved.

Canada and the EU feel increasingly squeezed by the superpowers USA on the one side and China on the other – and by tech giants, too, that seem to operate supranationally.

The idea of associate EU membership, Carney emphasised, would not be to form a third superpower or to create a bloc against anyone else.

"We do not pursue zero sum deals," he said. Instead he suggested like-minded nations should club together to create a new form of multilateral global governance in an increasingly turbulent world where – in the minds of some others - might is right.

Only by countries joining forces and shunning isolationism, Carney suggested, could they close key capability gaps, build strength and ensure national sovereignty.

This last may have been a nod to upcoming elections across Europe and the continent's increasingly powerful nationalist politicians. Their slogans – whether "Italy First" or "France for the French" or "Make Poland Great Again" – echo Donald Trump's call to Make America Great Again.

Carney's words were hopeful and warm; the applause in the European Parliament rapturous and apparently heartfelt.

Not so across the Atlantic. On Wednesday, Donald Trump dismissed the EU associate membership proposal out of hand, threatened to impose "very heavy tariffs" if the agreement came to fruition and warned he may view it as a "hostile act".

But the US president is the unintentional matchmaker for this EU-Canada love-in.

Traditionally, America is trade partner and defence ally number one for Canada and the EU.

But Ottawa is currently embroiled in what it calls an escalating trade "war" with the White House. Both Canada and the EU have been stung by what they view as Washington's weaponisation of trade tariffs.

They also fear they can no longer fully rely on the US to have their back in terms of security and defence.

Canada is not alone among Europe's far-flung allies, now seeking to cosy closer to the EU, as they worry the US is becoming too unpredictable a partner. Japan and South Korea show an interest in sheltering under the EU umbrella too.

For its part, the EU has recently hastened to secure a list of trade deals – with India, Indonesia and Japan for example – to intentionally diversify relationships.

But there is no guarantee Canada's associate membership of the EU will ever get off the ground, never mind become a blueprint for other countries, like the UK wanting closer relations stopping short of full EU membership.

Any deal would have to be approved by each one of the EU's 27 countries.

No legal precedent exists, negotiations would be lengthy and potential conflicts of interest loom, over steel tariffs for example.

A suggestion in May by Germany to make Ukraine – a country desperate for full membership of the European Union as soon as possible – an associate member was rejected by others in the EU.

Some, including France's government, want to avoid EU non-members securing "too good" a deal. They fear eurosceptic forces at home and abroad could then encourage voters to clamour to leave the bloc.

In the end, "associate membership" is just a label. Buffeted by adverse winds – from China, the US and Russia, the normally rigid rules-based EU is coming under serious pressure to show more flexibility in accommodating countries wanting to stand by its side.