WNBA 2026 playoff predictions: can the dynastic Aces – or anybody – deny the dominant Lynx?

At least big-picture, as the end of one era of the league and the beginning of another, in part because of Cathy Engelbert’s announcement earlier this month that she will step down as commissioner at the end of this year. It’s fair to say this season has been a microcosm of her up-and-down seven-year tenure: more growth than ever, excellent basketball, breakthroughs for a new generation of stars, and high highs, but also low lows – refereeing controversies and manufactured culture-war hysterics chief among them. EB

Unfortunately, for the transgender panic that swallowed much of the conversation around it. Never mind there has never been a trans woman – a person assigned male at birth who transitions to align with their gender identity – on a WNBA roster. The hypothetical eligibility question became a months-long culture-war spectacle, diverting attention from what should have been a celebration of the league’s expansion and extraordinary competitive depth. BAG

There’s been plenty of talk about the WNBA’s growth in recent years, usually measured in viewers and dollars. This season brought the growing pains that come with greater visibility, as outside narratives challenged the league’s progressive, player-first identity. But amid those tensions, the WNBA also welcomed two new teams, brought thousands of new fans into the fold and, most importantly, produced perhaps the deepest and best basketball the league has seen. SK

As the year of fair play, culture wars and expansion that preceded the genuine mainstream breakout. It also becomes notable, in retrospect, for how much A’ja Wilson’s greatness was overlooked amid the Sturm und Drang. AL

Team that will be missed the most in the playoffs

I’ll go with the Toronto Tempo, mainly because I wanted to see Playoff Marina Mabrey. She was one of the league’s most exciting players through the first half of the year, and her record-tying 53-point game on 25 June will go down as one of the season’s highlights. Unfortunately, it was also Toronto’s peak: they were hampered by injuries, including to Mabrey, and they went 2-23 from that game onward, so they were never a realistic contender. EB

A year after reaching the WNBA finals, the Phoenix Mercury collapsed to 16-28 and missed the playoffs entirely. That means no Alyssa Thomas, one of the league’s dynamic talents and the engine of last year’s runners-up. BAG

I may be biased because I live there and cover them often, but it would have been really fun for the Portland Fire to have the chance to inject their signature relentlessness into the playoffs. It’s also pretty startling to realize the postseason will be played without the Phoenix Mercury on the floor. SK

At a glance, the Seattle Storm having their worst season since their first season after making the playoffs in seven of the last eight years, with a pair of championships, would seem like reason to hit the panic button. But Sonia Raman and her young team – not least Flau’jae Johnson and Awa Fam, two of their top contributors as rookies – just need time to mature. AL

High seed at risk of going out early

Las Vegas Aces. Indiana’s Aliyah Boston knows how to play against A’ja Wilson. (If she’s healthy - Boston had a flare-up of a leg injury in the Fever’s regular-season finale.) The Aces are just 11-10 against playoff teams this season and haven’t beaten a playoff team without NaLyssa Smith, who is out with a season-ending leg injury. This matchup of the league’s top two scoring offenses could go either way. EB

Las Vegas Aces. A strange pick for a dynasty that has won three of the past four titles, but Indiana may be the most dangerous No 6 seed imaginable. The Fever boast the WNBA’s highest-scoring offense behind Kelsey Mitchell and Caitlin Clark, while the Aces enter without injured starting forward NaLyssa Smith. BAG

Las Vegas Aces. I am pretty sure I am going against my own standing rule (never count the Aces out), but the Fever are going to come out of the gate hungry and hoping to avenge last year’s second-round loss. It is difficult to imagine Las Vegas losing in the first round, but stranger things have certainly happened. SK

Minnesota Lynx. I mean, they enter the playoffs on their patchiest streak, having lost four of their last six games – including three straight (although they did intentionally rest their starters down the stretch while jockeying for a more favorable first-round matchup). That said, it would still be a genuine surprise if Minnesota wound up one-and-done after the stunning season they’ve had. AL

Long shot to win

Washington Mystics. In our preseason predictions, I picked the Mystics as my surprise contender and wisely said they would “keep the league’s heavy hitters on their toes”. They followed through! The Young Hos – a nickname coined by top-five draft pick Lauren Betts, properly cheeky for the league’s youngest roster – enter these playoffs having won seven of their final eight regular season games, including four in a row to close out things this month. Their matchup with the Atlanta Dream could be the best of the first round. EB

New York Liberty. An eighth seed with Breanna Stewart, Sabrina Ionescu and Jonquel Jones is a spicy meatball. The Liberty went 13-6 down the stretch and boast one of the league’s best offenses since the All-Star break. A first-round date with the Lynx is a brutal draw, but in a best-of-three series one bad day at the office could leave mighty Minnesota immediately facing a road elimination game. BAG

Washington Mystics. If we’re talking about an unexpected win – say, crashing the second round – why not Washington? They’ve been one of my favorite stories of the season, brushing aside everyone’s low expectations and having a hell of a time while winning. The Mystics have played the Dream tough all season, and I can absolutely see them springing a first-round upset. If we’re talking a true long shot to win the whole thing, though, give me the Fever – although that obviously hinges on the above. SK

Dallas Wings. What a difference a year and a coaching change makes for the Wings. There’s a lot to like about Paige Bueckers and Arike Ogunbowale in the clutch. If they really get rolling, watch out. AL

Most important player this postseason

Olivia Miles, Minnesota. With her, the Lynx are the obvious front-runners for their first WNBA title since 2017. Without her, the road gets tougher. Before she sat out the final two games of the regular season with a calf injury, Minnesota had played just two games without her. They won one and lost the other. They made it through much of the season without a 100%-Napheesa Collier, but surviving without a 100%-or-close-to-it Miles would be a much more difficult task. EB

Kelsey Mitchell, Indiana. Clark draws most of the attention (for better or worse), but Mitchell enters the playoffs as Indiana’s most important player. She averaged 25 points and put together a WNBA-record run of 27 consecutive 20-point games. Against a Las Vegas team forged from championship steel, Indiana may need Mitchell’s shot-making to keep the league’s most prolific offense humming when the stakes rise. BAG

Olivia Miles, Minnesota. If she’s healthy and ready to go – or even if she isn’t – I’m saying Miles. Without her, the Lynx will be forced to figure out scenarios they haven’t really had to face most of the season; with her, they will be very difficult to stop. SK

Olivia Miles, Minnesota. Every defense Minnesota face will be stepping up its efforts to shut her down. But if she can keep the Lynx offense firing and Napheesa Collier, Natasha Howard and Kayla McBride involved, the sky’s the limit – and I’m not talking about that miserable outfit in Chicago. AL

Playoff semi-finalists

Lynx v Mystics, Valkyries v Aces EB

Lynx v Mystics, Wings v Aces BAG

Lynx v Dream, Valkyries v Aces SK

Lynx v Dream, Valkyries v Aces AL

The champions will be ...

Golden State Valkyries. I’m going to be contrarian and pick the second-year Valkyries. They’re not entering the playoffs on the strongest run of form, but Gabby Williams looked stronger in the season finale and they still have the league’s best defense. If they can round back into the kind of form they were showing this summer - they won 10 of their 12 games in August before sputtering after the Fiba break - they could pull off a run. If my preseason prediction of WNBA All-Star Veronica Burton couldn’t come true, then I will settle for WNBA champion Veronica Burton. EB

Minnesota Lynx. They were the league’s pace-setters for basically the entire regular season and rank in the top four at both ends despite Collier missing half the year. Olivia Miles has transformed the backcourt, while Kayla McBride, Courtney Williams and Natasha Howard supply ample playoff experience. It’s high time for four-time WNBA champion Cheryl Reeve, one of basketball’s finest coaches, to get one for the thumb. BAG

Minnesota Lynx. It’s their year. The Lynx haven’t won a championship since 2016 and are, frankly, overdue – but they’re also more ready than they’ve been the last few years to win it all. Cheryl Reeve is so good at her job it’s almost easy to overlook what how extraordinary this season has been for the team, while Olivia Miles is clearly on the path to greatness. A championship in her rookie season? Pretty great. SK

Minnesota Lynx. They always had the defense. But Miles’s offense and general unstoppability puts Minnesota back on top after Maya Moore’s sudden retirement hastened the end of their 2010s reign. Now the only question is whether they can keep this crew together, Collier specifically, to start another dynastic run. AL