NBA Summer Forecast: Which top rookies will reach stardom first?

The 2026 NBA draft is almost two months behind us, and the league's talented rookies are ready to make their highly anticipated NBA debuts with the 2026-27 season right around the corner.

Top lottery picks have already offered a glimpse of what they're capable of during summer league. Washington Wizards No. 1 pick AJ Dybantsa tied the record for most points scored by a No. 1 pick in his summer league debut by putting up 27 points against No. 2 pick Darryn Peterson and the Utah Jazz. The race for Rookie of the Year already appears to be shaping up to be a close one, with other top rookies such as Caleb Wilson, Brayden Burries and Darius Acuff Jr. looking ready to make an immediate impact next season.

To kick off our 2026-27 Summer Forecast, ESPN's NBA insiders cast their votes on some of the biggest questions around this season's incoming class, from who is poised for an immediate impact to who will win a championship first.

Note: Our 2026-27 NBA Summer Forecast continues Aug. 24 with NBA insiders answering the biggest questions heading into next season.

Which top pick has the fastest path to becoming an NBA superstar?

1. Darryn Peterson (No. 2 pick, Utah Jazz): 5 votes
2. AJ Dybantsa (No. 1 pick, Washington Wizards): 4 votes
3. Caleb Wilson (No. 4 pick, Chicago Bulls): 3 votes
4. Cameron Boozer (No. 3 pick, Memphis Grizzlies): 1 vote

Scouts differ on whether Dybantsa or Peterson has the highest ceiling in this class, but the consensus is that both of the top picks have the potential to blossom into superstars.

Peterson's path is arguably easier because of the situation he landed in with the Jazz. Unlike Washington, there is no question about the head coach's future, as Will Hardy signed a long-term extension before last season and is widely considered one of the league's brightest young minds despite enduring a rebuild that made his record ugly. Peterson should have plenty of space to operate in a starting lineup that has proven scorers (Lauri Markkanen, Jaren Jackson Jr. and Keyonte George) who don't need to be ball dominant.

Peterson should step into the league as a prolific scorer. His upside is an elite two-way player who challenges for scoring titles. -- Tim MacMahon

Who is most likely to make an All-NBA team first?

1. Cameron Boozer (No. 3 pick, Memphis Grizzlies): 7 votes
2. Darryn Peterson (No. 2 pick, Utah Jazz): 4 votes
T3. AJ Dybantsa (No. 1 pick, Washington Wizards): 1 vote
T3. Caleb Wilson (No. 4 pick, Chicago Bulls): 1 vote

Opportunity and supporting casts likely play major roles in No. 2 pick Peterson and third selection Boozer snatching the most votes in this forecast. Peterson played in five games during summer league, averaging 20.7 points, four assists, one steal and 1.3 blocks. As part of a starting lineup that features George, Markkanen and Jackson with -- more importantly -- the green light to compete and not tank, Peterson will shine on both ends of the floor playing for a demanding coach in Hardy. But, like any rookie on a bottom-tier team, he'll also fight through some growing pains.

Boozer and the Grizzlies, meanwhile, will surprise some teams this season. But their overall success likely hinges on the health of Zach Edey. Still, Boozer's basketball IQ, physicality, passing skills and ability to make everybody around him better will lift a young, revamped Memphis roster expected to lean on an unconventional style of play. -- Michael C. Wright

Which lottery pick will be selected to an All-Star team first?

1. AJ Dybantsa (No. 1 pick, Washington Wizards): 4 votes
2. Darryn Peterson (No. 2 pick, Utah Jazz): 4 votes
3. Cameron Boozer (No. 3 pick, Memphis Grizzlies): 3 votes
4. Caleb Wilson (No. 4 pick, Chicago Bulls): 2 votes

Near the end of the opening quarter in his summer league debut, Dybantsa set the expectation for the type of highlight plays the Wizards can expect to see in the top pick's rookie season. Dybantsa zoomed by four Jazz defenders for a rim-rocking, two-handed dunk between Justin Harmon and Orlando Robinson that sent the crowd at Thomas & Mack Center into a frenzy. Playing next to Trae Young and Anthony Davis this season, Dybantsa will get plenty of exposure starring for a squad that finally harbors realistic expectations to compete.

Peterson could end up a key cog on the more competitive squad, though. And we all know that overall team success heightens the prospects for individual accolades. Peterson should have plenty of room to showcase his downhill mastery this season, too, considering he'll be flanked by threats such as Markkanen, George and Jackson Jr. -- Wright

Which top rookie has the highest long-term ceiling?

1. AJ Dybantsa (No. 1 pick, Washington Wizards): 6 votes
2. Darryn Peterson (No. 2 pick, Utah Jazz): 3 votes
3. Caleb Wilson (No. 4 pick, Chicago Bulls): 2 votes
4. Mikel Brown Jr. (No. 6 pick, Brooklyn Nets): 1 vote

Dybantsa was our leading vote-getter, backing up the Wizards' decision to pick him atop the draft. His positional size, strength and ability to get into the paint give him an excellent developmental base to work with and also portend great defensive upside and versatility to grow into.

However, Dybantsa has a lot of work ahead to realize that ceiling. He enters the NBA as an inconsistent jump shooter (as evidenced by summer league), particularly stretching out to 3-point range. Without significant improvement in that area, defenses will load up on him in the paint and dare him to shoot in situations when it matters most. It would be great to see him become a more disruptive and engaged defender at the next level, something that's within his reach as he matures.

Peterson enters the league with a higher baseline level of shotmaking polish than any guard in some time. Many around the NBA think he could lead the league in scoring one day, and while there will be an adjustment period, his high-level shooting ability at 19 years old was a major reason he was my No. 1 prospect through last season's draft process. -- Jeremy Woo

Which lottery pick will have the biggest impact on winning this season?

1. Cameron Boozer (No. 3 pick, Memphis Grizzlies): 5 votes
2. Darryn Peterson (No. 2 pick, Utah Jazz): 4 votes
T3. AJ Dybantsa (No. 1 pick, Washington Wizards): 1 vote
T3. Morez Johnson Jr. (No. 9 pick, Dallas Mavericks): 1 vote
T3. Yaxel Lendeborg (No. 11 pick, Golden State Warriors): 1 vote

Boozer's mix of offensive polish and overall processing on both ends makes him the most NBA-ready of the lottery picks. And while the adjustment to the NBA level from a size, athleticism and pace perspective will pose some immediate challenges for him, there's not much doubt that Boozer will be able to solve for that. He has always been advanced for his age and should be a productive rookie on a team that's relatively well constructed around him.

How many games the Grizzlies will win this season with what's still a very young and evolving team is the correct follow-up question. Whatever success they have will be tied to Boozer's readiness to help carry them. -- Woo

Who will prove to be the biggest draft steal?

1. Brayden Burries (No. 10 pick, Milwaukee Bucks): 6 votes
2. Yaxel Lendeborg (No. 11 pick, Golden State Warriors): 3 votes
3. Darius Acuff Jr. (No. 7 pick, Sacramento Kings): 2 votes
T4. Caleb Wilson (No. 4 pick, Chicago Bulls): 1 vote
T4. Kingston Flemings (No. 8 pick, Atlanta Hawks): 1 vote

Burries got the most votes by a big margin here after the Bucks snatched him up at No. 10. It was not surprising that he was the last of the talented freshman guards picked in the lottery: Burries (who turns 21 in September) was significantly older than his peers by draft standards and is viewed as more of a true combo guard at 6-foot-4. He should have a good opportunity to spread his wings in Milwaukee, with the Bucks entering a full rebuild post-Giannis and sorely needing the injection of backcourt talent.

For what it's worth, I cast my vote for Flemings, who I believe in for the long term, even though he might not play a huge role in Atlanta right away. -- Woo

Which rookie landed in the best situation?

1. Cameron Boozer (No. 3 pick, Memphis Grizzlies): 3 votes
2. Morez Johnson Jr. (No. 9 pick, Dallas Mavericks): 3 votes
3. Aday Mara (No. 12 pick, Oklahoma City Thunder): 2 votes
4. AJ Dybantsa (No. 1 pick, Washington Wizards): 1 vote

Boozer is the face of a full-blown rebuild with the Grizzlies, who flipped the final page in the franchise's previous chapter by trading Ja Morant soon after the draft. He'll have plenty of opportunity to grow as a playmaking power forward with the Memphis offense running through Boozer right away and potentially for years to come.

Johnson, on the other hand, won't be asked to be an offensive focal point in Dallas anytime soon. The Mavs selected Johnson at No. 9 -- a bit earlier than he was projected to go -- primarily because they valued his physical presence, toughness, intelligence and intangibles. Those were all essential ingredients in the national championship he won at Michigan while playing for new Mavericks coach Dusty May, and the Mavs believe Johnson will become an outstanding complementary fit alongside reigning Rookie of the Year and former No. 1 pick Cooper Flagg. -- MacMahon

Which of the top four picks will win an NBA championship first?

1. Darryn Peterson (No. 2 pick, Utah Jazz): 5 votes
2. Cameron Boozer (No. 3 pick, Memphis Grizzlies): 4 votes
T3. AJ Dybantsa (No. 1 pick, Washington Wizards): 2 votes
T3. Caleb Wilson (No. 4 pick, Chicago Bulls): 2 votes

All four teams will be thrilled to harbor dreams of winning it all: The Jazz and Grizzlies have never won a title, the Bulls have never won one without Michael Jordan, and the Wizards won their only championship back in 1978.

Peterson came out on top of this vote because Utah is a few years ahead of Chicago and Memphis in its rebuilding cycle, and it seems to have a clearer vision than Washington. The Jazz's most important young players -- Peterson, George and Ace Bailey -- play different positions and have complementary skill sets, while veterans Jackson and Markkanen are still under 30 years old and represent sensible fits alongside the second pick. If Peterson reaches his full potential, the Jazz could follow a similar roster construction model as the Oklahoma City Thunder and San Antonio Spurs.

Boozer has a long track record of high-level winning dating back to high school, and he is joining a Grizzlies organization with a savvy front office that built a promising young core in the not-too-distant past. The Wizards' recent additions of high-priced stars Young and Davis were moves aimed at achieving short-term respectability rather than building a longer-term contender, while the Bulls are launching a full rebuilding effort around Caleb Wilson with a new coach and front office.

Let's end on a note of caution: Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum and Chet Holmgren are the only top four picks to win a championship with the team that drafted them in the past 10 seasons. -- Ben Golliver