Why Iran believes Trump’s midterm defeat gives it the upper hand

Iran's hardliners say Trump's midterm loss shows the US cannot win the war, and they want a bigger price before it ends.

9 min readNov 8, 2026 08:21 AM IST First published on: Nov 8, 2026 at 08:21 AM IST

A giant banner depicting, from left, U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff, U.S. President Donald Trump, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and U.S. Vice President JD Vance burns during an organized, symbolic denunciation of the United States and Israel by Iranian government supporters in Islamic Revolution Square in Tehran, Iran. (Photo: AP)

While the votes were counted in the United States for midterms resulting in massive setback for US President Donald Trump’s Republican Party, it was being closely watched in West Asia, especially by its archrival Iran. While the midterms outcome, which both Trump and his deputy JD Vance said was influenced by the ongoing Iran war, has repercussions for the White House inside of the country and abroad.

Iran’s hardliners have said that Trump’s performance in the election shows the war has cost him more at home than it has won him abroad, and argue that this is the time to ask for more, not less, in any deal to end it.

The mood was clear in a post on X by Iran security council chief Mohsen Rezaei. He ran through the names of senior US figures, including Vance, Rubio and Hegseth, and said each was on the way out or had given up. He then asked who in Washington Iran should now speak to. “You lost the war and the election,” he wrote, and he ended with a warning that anyone who starts a war will face a heavy response.

You lost the war and the election.Vance has conceded,Rubio is heading for the exit,Hegseth is about to be fired,and the CENTCOM commander is now a podcaster! So٫Who exactly in Washington do we need to get this message across to? Start a war,and you’ll face a devastating response.

— محسن رضایی (@ir_rezaee) November 7, 2026

CNN says the same view runs through Iran’s politics and media, with some voices calling for a “new world order” that gives Iran a stronger place in the region. It matters because Iran and the US are in indirect talks, through Qatar, on how to end a war that is now eight months old.

What are Iran’s hardliners asking for?

They want Iran to hold firm in talks with the US and give no ground. They believe Iran has already won the war and that Trump’s loss at home proves it.

Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei backed this line on Wednesday. He warned against any move that looks like giving in, and hardliners took this as a message to Iran’s own negotiators. He also said the war was setting the base for a new world order.

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Why do they say the election result helps Iran?

Trump told Fox News that the war played a part in his party’s defeat. Vance went further in a long post on X, writing: “the reason we lost is the war.”

One of the things the data analysts on our side obsessed over was "composition"—whether the electorate looked close enough to 2024 for Republicans to win. And despite polls that showed a Democrat blowout, the data kept on telling us the same story: in some states turnout was merely OK, in other states it was downright amazing, and in no state was it catastrophic. There was a genuine sense of optimism on our team: our people were showing up. So, I asked the smartest data guy I know, does that mean we’re going to shock the world? "No," he told me. "We might do better than the polls suggest. But the data is telling us that a lot of Trump/Vance 2024 voters are pissed and planning to vote for the other guys. Our voters are turning out, but they may not vote for us." Well, that looks prophetic now. Our voters did show up. In Florida, for example, the electorate was 9 points more Republican than Democrat, just a couple points worse than 2024. Undoubtedly there were places we could have done better on turnout. But the main problem is not turnout. The main problem is that many people who voted for Trump/Vance in 2024 voted for Democrats in 2026. There will be a lot of infighting and arguing over what happened and why that is. One of the pollsters I really respect told me that our economic messaging wasn’t sharp enough down the stretch. I’m sure that’s true. But the real reason we lost is obvious to almost everyone. Another pollster—one of the smartest people I know in politics, told me yesterday we’d lose the generic ballot by 13 points. I felt negative going into Tuesday, but even I was shocked by this. In his polling, he saw that a lot of Trump 2024 voters were angry and planning to vote for Democrats. He asked those voters who had abandoned us what would cause them to come back on our team. The top four answers, accounting for nearly all of the responses were: 1) End the war 2) Focus on cost of living/inflation 3) Put America First 4) Change our relationship to Israel Our voters showed up. And the above four reasons are why many of them voted for Democrats. This is according to a pollster who nailed the results. While many spent Monday attacking Rachel Campos Duffy for calling for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict, it turns out her political advice was sound. (She’s also a great person.) In the next few months, there’s going to be a lot of gaslighting. Expect to hear any number of establishment politicians say the solution to our woes is amnesty. I’m open to the idea that we should change enforcement—by focusing more on businesses that hire illegal labor, for instance. But anyone pushing amnesty is lying to you. The reason we lost is the war. The president himself said so last night. If you’d like to argue it was worth it, that losing the Senate for the next 6 years was worth it, then do so. Argue it was a worthwhile cost to pay. Agree or disagree, that’s at least honest. But everyone knows why we lost. And any honest conversation about where we go from here must start there. I remain hopeful about our country. To the people who are pissed off and want to say, “I told you so”: you’re right, you did tell us so. Take that energy into electing Republicans who share your worldview. To the people who are just pissed at the results, you should be. Let’s take that anger and get back to the work of saving our country.

— JD Vance (@JDVance) November 4, 2026

Iranian conservatives have taken those words as proof that the war now hurts Trump at home. Hamidreza Azizi of the International Crisis Group told CNN that Tehran sees the vote as backing for its approach, and that its demands are likely to get tougher.

Azizi said Trump cannot simply declare the war over without something from Iran on its nuclear programme to soften the blow at home. The other route, he said, is a large military strike so that Trump can end the war from a strong position. But he added that Iran now has little reason to offer any nuclear concession.

What does Iran want at the end of it?

Iran’s leaders also want a deal, but one that leaves the country with more power in the region than before. Sina Toossi of the Center for International Policy said Iran wants its neighbours to accept that their safety cannot depend only on US military might.

Iran has set seven conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz. They include an end to the war on all fronts, payment for damage, the withdrawal of US forces and an end to sanctions. It is not clear if Washington will agree to any of them.

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The war has cost Iran dearly. The US and Israel killed former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and many commanders and scientists, and that a US sea blockade and renewed sanctions have hurt the economy. Toossi said that is why Iran’s leaders do not want to give up what leverage they have without getting something lasting.

The war is now eight months old and has stalled, with little fighting and no real progress in talks. Iranian negotiators have been travelling between Tehran and Doha, where Qatar is trying to close the gap. The aim is a deal that opens talks on Iran’s nuclear work and ends the war.

A regional official told CNN on Thursday that the chance of new war has fallen since the vote, but a fresh round of fighting is still likely. In October, Trump said the US would not hit Iran before the midterms, and he has not said what comes after.

The US struck Qeshm Island several times in the past week, including on Thursday night. Both sides have played the strikes down, which appears to be an effort to protect the talks. Trump told reporters he would prefer not to destroy the rest of the country, “but maybe I’ll have to.” He added: “You’ll know soon enough.”

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Qatar said Trump spoke to its emir by phone on Friday about calming the conflict. A day earlier, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi spoke to counterparts in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Oman, Pakistan, Kuwait, Jordan, Turkey, Cyprus and Qatar.