Tom Fornelli's CFP Vibe Check: Good night, Oregon -- your dream season never had a chance

Every week the CFP Vibe Check tries to put its finger on where things stand in the College Football Playoff race without overreacting to what it just saw, but also probably overreacting to everything it just saw. 

We do not have a long history of the 12-team College Football Playoff, but in the two years of its existence, we have seen two teams with three losses make the field. The first was a 10-3 Clemson that won the ACC in 2024 and got in as a 12-seed. Last year it was an Alabama team that finished the regular season 10-2 before picking up its third loss of the season in the SEC Championship against Georgia.

Now that we're halfway through the 2026 regular season, I can't help but wonder if we won't see more 3-loss teams in the field than we saw in 2024 and 2025 combined. I don't know who those teams will be, but I know who one of them won't be.

The Oregon Ducks saw their playoff hopes die for good on Saturday.

A week after needing a last-minute touchdown drive to beat Nebraska, the Ducks dropped their third game of the season at Illinois, losing 21-10. It was the first time since joining the Big Ten that the Ducks lost a conference game on the road. It also snapped a streak of 61 straight games in which Oregon scored more than 10 points.

There was nothing about the loss we hadn't seen from the Ducks already this year. They still didn't have Dante Moore at QB, and were without Evan Stewart and a host of wide receivers. While injuries and off-field problems have certainly played a role in an abject disaster of a season -- don't forget, Oregon began the year as a national title favorite -- there was one thing I noticed in the loss that stood out to me, something that's been a concern for the Ducks all year.

You see, Illinois had injuries of its own. The Illini lost their starting QB, Katin Houser, for the season in their last game, and were starting a true freshman, Michael Clayton, in his place. Clayton did not have a great game statistically, though he did throw for two touchdowns in the second half to help the Illini come back from an early 10-0 deficit. But what stood out about the performance is that Illinois seemed to have an actual plan on offense.

Offensive coordinator Barry Lunney has been in Champaign since the 2022 season and has built some strong offenses. He figured out a way to game plan around his true freshman, while also working in a package for Carson Boyd, another inexperienced QB who is more of a threat with his legs than arms.

On the other side, Oregon had a plan, and kept abandoning it. Drew Mehringer is in his first season as the OC at Oregon, and it's been a rough start. Still, while he's dealt with injuries, he's had a month to work on life post-Dante Moore, and hasn't figured it out. Oregon has played musical chairs between highly-paid backup Dylan Raiola and freshman Brock Stewart. This week it was Raiola again, and the Ducks looked great on their scripted opening drive.

Then they stopped doing the things that worked. There were times when Oregon ran the ball very effectively. They finished the game with 180 yards on the ground, as Jordon Davison averaged 6.6 yards per carry and Dierre Hill was at 6.4.

But they kept going away from it. For whatever reason, they would get momentum on the ground and then abandon it. Raiola threw the ball 41 times and took three sacks, meaning the Ducks dropped back to pass on 44 of their 73 plays.

And there was no reason for it.

What we saw in this game was a team with an experienced playcaller who realized what he had to do to win the game, and a team without one. It cost Oregon again. Dan Lanning has done a lot of great things for Oregon since taking over the program, and while hindsight is 20/20, I'm not sure how much hindsight is required here.

In a season in which Oregon had so much coming back and had everything to gain, the decision to stick in-house and promote Mehringer to replace Will Stein is likely the biggest regret of Dan Lanning's coaching career. 

Texas Tech put itself in danger

You may remember a bit of a hubbub surrounding Texas Tech during the offseason about Brendan Sorsby and his gambling issues. You may also remember that, after Tech was forced to part ways with Sorsby, its mega-booster Cody Campbell had some choice words for Cincinnati. Cincinnati was Sorsby's school in 2025, and Campbell was of the opinion that the school played a role in Sorsby's gambling addiction coming to light.

"We're not going to forget about that," Campbell said on The Program: Texas Tech, a Paramount+ documentary. "And I don't think they'll forget about it, either, when we're up by 40 and still throwing the ball in the fourth quarter. That's where the retribution will come."

The retribution will have to wait. Cincinnati beat Texas Tech, 37-24, thanks in part to two turnovers by Will Hammond, the QB who was thrust into the starting role once Sorsby lost his eligibility. Cincinnati then rubbed salt in the wound by tagging Campbell on X in their victory tweet.

It was all wonderful college football stuff, but after Campbell likely muted his notifications, I have to think he turned his attention to wondering how the loss impacted his team's ability to reach the playoffs.

Tech wasn't the only top-10 team from the Big 12 to lose this week. BYU followed up its huge win over Notre Dame with an overtime loss to UCF. But BYU has a win over Notre Dame to hang its hat on, as well as another chance to prove itself against Utah. Tech's best win is Houston, but the Cougars lost to Utah to fall to 6-2. The biggest games remaining on Tech's schedule are next week against Arizona and a road game against Oklahoma State.

I don't know exactly how the CFP committee will weigh strength of schedule now that everybody is playing a 9-game conference slate, but I'm not overly confident wins over Arizona and Oklahoma State will move the needle enough. 

At this point, it kind of feels like the Red Raiders need to get to the Big 12 Championship at a minimum, and if they lose there, an 11-2 mark is no sure thing over some 9-3 resumes from the SEC and Big Ten.

Texas is back

Well, back in the running, anyway. If ever there was a team with a resume that would likely be strong enough to get in at 9-3, it's the Longhorns. They already had their win over Ohio State, and while the Buckeyes could limp to the finish line after Julian Sayin's injury, the committee will remember it was a full-strength Buckeyes Texas beat, and value it as such.

This 34-27 win over Ole Miss is another one that will carry weight, as will that road win over Tennessee, even if the Vols fell to 6-2 this week.

Of course, Texas still needs to finish 9-3, which is far from a guarantee. There are road games against Missouri and LSU to play, and they're on the road for the season finale against Texas A&M too. Texas is capable of winning all three, but we also know it's capable of losing them too. I'm fairly certain they'll avoid losses to the Kamario-less version of Mississippi State and then woeful Arkansas, so they'll need to go 2-1 through those three road games to get in the field.

Had they lost to Ole Miss, I'd probably have written them off the same way I've done Oregon.

Looking for darkhorses?

It's been a wild season, and the way things are going, there's a real chance there will be a team or two in the field we did not see coming. And I mean right now. I'm not talking about a UCLA team that's now 7-0, or even a Kentucky team that's 7-1.

I mean teams like Wisconsin, Oklahoma State and Arizona.

Arizona and Oklahoma State benefit from Saturday's Big 12 carnage. They're both 3-1 in the Big 12 and tied with BYU and Texas Tech for second place. Arizona plays at Texas Tech next week, and a win there would put the Wildcats in a great position. They also get Utah in Tucson in mid-November.

Oklahoma State gets Texas Tech at home the same weekend Arizona is playing Utah. Its other four Big 12 games are road trips to Iowa State, Kansas State and Arizona State, as well as a home game with Kansas. Those four are a combined 5-11 in conference play.

And Wisconsin? The Badgers took down USC, 24-7, in as ugly a 17-point win as you'll ever see. Luke Fickell's Badgers are 3-1 in conference play and in the middle of a jumble of teams at the top of the Big Ten. Next week they're on the road to face Iowa. If they win that game, they finish with Rutgers, a Maryland team that just fired its coach, Purdue, and then a pesky Minnesota team. The path to 10-2 and a possible trip to Indianapolis for the Big Ten Championship may not be likely, but it's a lot more likely than anybody would've thought it'd be when the season began with Fickell on the hot seat. 

There's less traffic on the G6 highway

Appalachian State took down James Madison 34-31 on Thursday night, effectively ending James Madison's chances of returning to the playoff this season. I can't rule it out entirely, but I have a tough time imagining the Sun Belt champion gets in unless it's undefeated, or we see total carnage in every other Group of Six league.

That opens the door even more for Boise State and New Mexico. The Broncos beat Washington State, 31-10, in a game that was much closer than the score suggests, while New Mexico picked up a massive win in the Mountain West over North Dakota State.

It's no surprise they're now the two favorites among the Group of Six to make the field in DraftKings' latest odds. Boise State is at +105 (48.8%), and New Mexico is at +250 (28.6%). UTSA is the next Group of Six team listed, and the Roadrunners are at +600 (14.3%).

Week 9 Vibe Shifters

A look ahead to the five games on next week's slate most likely to impact the playoff race

• Ohio State at USC
• Arizona at Texas Tech
• Florida at Georgia
• Wisconsin at Iowa
• Texas State at Boise State

This week's CFP projection

1. Miami
2. Georgia
3. Indiana
4. Utah
5. Ohio State
6. Notre Dame
7. Alabama
8. LSU
9. BYU
10. UCLA
11. Kentucky
12. Boise State