US midterm early votes hit record 48 million

A record 47.9 million Americans have already voted in next week’s US midterm elections, with participation surging in key battleground states and registered Democrats outpacing Republicans, figures showed Friday.

The University of Florida’s Election Lab had recorded 47,922,669 early votes nationwide by midday, surpassing the previous midterm record of 45.9 million cast ahead of Election Day in 2022.

The surge is especially pronounced in states with fiercely contested Senate races that could determine control of the chamber during the final two years of President Donald Trump’s presidency.

In Texas, more than six million people had voted early by Wednesday, according to official figures, with in-person turnout running around 50% ahead of the same stage in 2022.

North Carolina’s election board reported early voting up nearly 37% on the same point four years ago, while South Carolina surpassed its entire 2022 early vote total on Monday, with five days of early voting still to go.

In Kansas, where Republican Senator Roger Marshall faces a tough re-election fight, advance ballots were running around two-thirds ahead of 2022 last week, according to the secretary of state’s office.

In states that record voters’ party affiliation, registered Democrats have accounted for a substantially larger share of early ballots than Republicans.

Election Lab figures showed Democrats making up around 44% of early voters in those states, compared with 31% for Republicans and 25% for unaffiliated or minor-party voters.

University of Florida political scientist Michael McDonald, who oversees the Election Lab, has pointed to rising participation among Black and Hispanic voters in states that report racial and ethnic data, with particularly strong turnout in heavily Hispanic communities along the Texas-Mexico border.

In Georgia, where early in-person voting broke the state’s midterm record on Thursday, women accounted for 56% of ballots cast by that day, compared with 44% for men.

“Georgians continue to head to the polls in record numbers because they trust the system,” top elections official Brad Raffensperger said Thursday.

But experts warn against interpreting the figures as a prediction of the election outcome.

A voter’s party registration does not reveal which candidates they supported, and tens of millions more Americans are expected to cast ballots on Tuesday.

In recent elections Republicans have tended to turn out in greater numbers on Election Day, potentially narrowing or reversing the Democrats’ early advantage.

And higher early participation does not necessarily translate into higher overall turnout, since some voters may simply be casting ballots sooner than in previous elections.

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