Bohol flagged as drought-vulnerable amid El Niño outlook

TAGBILARAN CITY, BOHOL, Philippines —Bohol has been assessed as vulnerable to drought amid the projected effects of El Niño, according to a risk-mapping assessment by Project Smarter Approaches to Reinvigorate Agriculture as an Industry in the Philippines (SARAI) Central Visayas and the University of the Philippines Los Baños.

The “Risk Mapping of Bohol Province for the 2026 El Niño,” released Aug. 11, assessed the province’s drought vulnerability using the Standardized Precipitation Index and Standardized Temperature Index forecasts.

The assessment showed generally near-normal rainfall across Bohol in August, but temperatures in many municipalities are expected to be moderately hot.

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While rainfall is projected to remain near normal, unusually warm conditions could increase evapotranspiration and cause greater soil moisture loss, particularly when rainfall is insufficient, the assessment said.

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Many municipalities, including Alicia, Carmen, Catigbian, Danao, Getafe, Guindulman, Inabanga, Panglao, Pilar, Sagbayan, San Miguel and Tubigon, were classified as having near-normal rainfall but moderately hot temperatures.

Other areas, including Tagbilaran City, Dauis, Loon, Loboc, Talibon, Trinidad, Ubay and Valencia, were projected to have both near-normal rainfall and temperatures.

Historical data

Project SARAI cautioned that actual conditions could vary from the projections, which are based on historical climate data and model forecasts.

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It recommended continued monitoring of weather forecasts and advisories from the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) and other agencies.

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Pagasa has forecast below-normal rainfall in Bohol and the rest of Central Visayas for August as moderate El Niño conditions persist in the tropical Pacific.

Climate models indicate that El Niño could continue through the first half of 2027 and may intensify to very strong levels before the end of 2026.

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Bohol’s agriculture has been severely affected by previous dry spells. During recent drought cycles, including in 2024, the province recorded more than P420 million in agricultural and fisheries losses, affecting at least 100,000 farmers. /cb