Curb grave El Niño risk

Trouble is looming ahead, with extreme weather expected to adversely affect lives and livelihoods. As weather forecasts have become more accurate, the El Niño signs cannot be ignored. It is encouraging that the relevant agencies are not just sitting back and helplessly watching the dire developments.

Experts have already mapped out the areas that will be most affected by the adverse weather conditions. The levels of flood warnings have been raised, with 1.5 million people across the 47 counties likely to be affected.

The authorities must enhance efforts to ease the impact in the health, education, agriculture and tourism sectors, which are facing the highest risk. Indeed, the country is facing a major flooding threat during the coming October-November-December rains, with severe El Niño conditions threatening homes, infrastructure, livelihoods and food systems.

The World Meteorological Department says the above-normal rainfall in many places will persist until February. The Kenya Meteorological Service Authority has identified urban, riverine and flash flooding as the main threats depending on the terrain, drainage systems and proximity to rivers and other water bodies. Nairobi faces significant flooding with increased pressure on drainage during heavy downpours.

Between 22,000 and 25,000 households could be affected, rising to 100,000 in the worst-case scenario. However, experts say this may not reach the level suffered in the 1997/98 El Niño rains. But the government is keen to avoid a repeat of the 2023/24 flooding, which caught the authorities off guard, killing 240 people and displacing 790,000.

The best way to prepare for long-term extreme weather is to focus on immediate physical safety, household resilience, and community coordination. Having an early action plan can significantly reduce the risk.

The authorities must reinforce infrastructure and enhance early warning mechanisms and emergency evacuations. However, the people themselves must take precautions and heed warnings for their own protection.

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