Iraq appears to delay militia disarmament as Iran-backed factions pressure Baghdad - analysis

Iraq’s new prime minister Ali al-Zaidi was supposed to rein in the Iranian-backed militias in Iraq. For years the militias have carried out hundreds of attacks on US forces, kidnapped journalists and researchers, assassinated Iraqis, attacked the Kurdistan Region and attacked embassies and consulates.

The militias killed Americans in Jordan and targeted Israel. Most of the powerful Iranian-backed militias in Iraq are sanctioned by the US as terrorist groups.

Now Iraq appears to be backtracking on the deadline for placing militia weapons under the control of the state. Iraq had initially indicated it would rein in the militias by September 30, when US troops who went to Iraq to back Baghdad against ISIS, are supposed to leave. There are not very many US troops in Iraq these days. Most are in the Kurdistan Region of northern Iraq.

Now Iraq is indicating that it actually wants to wait until the US leaves, to disarm the militias. This bait and switch on timing shows how Iraq will slow play its obligations.

“Iraq will begin gradually consolidating weapons held by armed factions under state control after the international coalition’s scheduled departure on September 30, Iraq’s national security advisor said Sunday, calling the move a ‘strategic Iraqi decision’ and stressing that the process will be carried out through dialogue as opposed to armed confrontation,” Rudaw media reported on August 23.

Sep. 30 set as deadline to consolidate arms

Iran’s IRGC Quds Force head Esmail Qaani was recently in Baghdad. In addition, Iran’s speaker of parliament Mohammed Bagher Qalibaf was also recently in Iraq. They went to Iraq to showcase Iran’s power in Baghdad. Like the mafia collecting protection money, they were making Baghdad an offer it can’t refuse.

National Security Advisor Qasim al-Araji, speaking to the state-run Iraqi News Agency (INA), said, “After September 30, the process of restricting weapons to the state will begin gradually.”

Rudaw added that “Araji said the government was serious about ‘severing’ ties between political parties and Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) brigades, adding that ongoing dialogues to complete the disengagement process were producing positive results as Baghdad seeks to ‘strengthen trust.’”

Rudaw added that “the Iraqi government had previously set September 30, as the deadline for armed factions to hand over their weapons to the state.” Now, “Araji said all political forces agree that weapons should be controlled exclusively by the state and ‘The decision of war and peace is exclusively in the hands of the Iraqi state.’”

“The weapons of the factions will become a force for the state and will not be handed over to any external party,” he claimed. It’s clear Baghdad is moving toward a kind of bait and switch. It may pretend that the militias already have weapons under state control because most of the militias are technically part of the state-backed PMF paramilitary organization.

“Baghdad has faced resistance from some Iran-aligned factions, which have linked disarmament to the departure of US and other foreign forces from Iraq, with Kata'ib Hezbollah, in a statement on Tuesday, going so far as to demand the departure of Turkish troops from northern Iraq and the dissolution of the Peshmerga forces as preconditions to complying with the government’s disarmament mandate,” Rudaw added in its report.

Iraq’s latest move is meant to focus on the US leaving and kick the can down the road in terms of actually confronting the militias. The prime minister is meanwhile hinting he will only serve on term. It’s not clear if the militias think they can simply wait out the prime minister. What comes next is unclear.

The US is focused on the Iran conflict and many other issues. It’s unclear if the White House has the time and regional political capital to get Baghdad to disarm the militias now. The US Envoy to Iraq and Syria, US Ambassador Tom Barrack could also play a helpful role. He is now focused on Syria in the wake of Israeli airstrikes there. As such, Baghdad may hope it can quietly push the date past September 30 and hope no one notices.

Many PMF militias have US sanctions due to attacks on US interests

The Iran-backed militias have become one of the most powerful armed terrorist threats in Iraq. Some have their origins to the 1980s, when Iraqi Shi'ite groups backed by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) fought Saddam Hussein's regime. After 2003, these groups expanded rapidly, and many later became part of the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) during the war against ISIS.

Several of the most prominent militias have been designated by the US as terrorist organizations. These include Kata'ib Hezbollah (KH), Asa'ib Ahl al-Haq (AAH), Harakat al-Nujaba (HAN), Kata'ib Sayyid al-Shuhada (KSS), Harakat Ansar Allah al-Awfiya (HAAA), and Kata'ib Imam Ali (KIA).

Most are designated as both Foreign Terrorist Organizations (FTOs) and Specially Designated Global Terrorists (SDGTs) because of attacks on US and Coalition forces. The US killed the leader of Kataib Hezbollah, Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, in a drone strike in January 2020. He was riding with IRGC Quds Force head Qasem Soleimani. Soleimani, the target of the drone strike, was also killed.

This illustrates how the Iranian-backed militias in Iraq are Iranian proxies. Disarming them will be difficult, as is the case with Hamas and Hezbollah. However, it is essential for peace and stability in the region. The militias recently attacked Saudi Arabia, for instance.