Umno hasn’t shown it can stand alone without allies, says analyst

A call for Parliament to be dissolved may backfire on Umno president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi, says an analyst, who says Umno should not mistake the strength of its alliance with PAS for its own electoral strength.

The truth is that Umno has not yet truly proved that it can stand alone without support from political allies. Don’t assume you can run simply because you’ve borrowed strength,” said Ahmad Zaharuddin Sani Ahmad Sabri of Global Asia Consulting.

He said the political momentum enjoyed by Umno ahead of today’s Melaka election did not necessarily reflect its own strength.

“A victory in Melaka, if it happens, will not constitute an automatic licence to win across Malaysia,” he said, as each state had different demographic patterns, voter sentiments and political rivalries.

“Umno needs to ask itself a question that may be uncomfortable for its leaders. If PAS withdraws its support or chooses to go its own way, how many seats can Umno really win?”Zaharuddin said.

In the 2022 general election Barisan Nasional won only 30 parliamentary seats compared with 79 in 2018. He questioned the extent to which BN had succeeded since then in regaining the support of young and Malay voters who had shifted their allegiance to Perikatan Nasional.

On Tuesday, following talk of a Cabinet reshuffle after Loke Siew Fook’s resignation, Zahid had said it would be best to seek a fresh mandate from the people by dissolving Parliament.

Political analyst Mazlan Ali of Universiti Teknologi Malaysia said Zahid’s confidence in a fresh general election was buoyed by BN’s victories in Johor and Negeri Sembilan and the coalition’s cooperation with PAS.

However, Umno was not truly ready, as its reliance on PAS was a gamble because PAS “weighs the political costs and benefits of every decision”.

Mazlan said the biggest challenge faced by the two parties was seat allocation, especially in Kelantan, Terengganu, Kedah and Perlis, where PAS would want to defend its seats.

He questioned whether PAS would be willing to hand over its seats to Umno and risk not getting them back, also noting that studies had shown PAS had more influence than Umno in Selangor.

“Umno should consider cooperating with other parties, including those in Pakatan Harapan. This would make seat allocations easier, because PH is more focused on urban and mixed seats,” he said.

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