Why Sadiq Khan will win a fourth term as powerful Mayor of London

Never take voters for granted.

They have sprung enough surprises on Britain in recent years.

Whether this happens depends principally on two factors.

Chancellor of the Exchequer John Healey delivering his budget in the House of Commons (House of Commons/PA)

PA Wire

The first is whether he decides to seek another term in office, the second if he wins the contest in 2028.

There have been signs that he would not, in particular what appeared to be the start of a campaign by Brent East MP Dawn Butler to be Labour’s mayoral candidate, with the giant GMB union backing her.

They could allow City Hall to boost borrowing by £10 billion to press ahead with new infrastructure projects such as the Bakerloo line extension, the West London Orbital and the DLR extension to Thamesmead.

Labour MPs (clockwise) Dawn Butler, Rosena Allin-Khan, Steve Reed and David Lammy who could seek to be the party’s mayoral contender

Getty/PA

That’s a lot of ribbon cutting pencilled into the diary in coming years.

Is Lord Khan really going to step aside and hand over the scissors to Ms Butler, Tottenham MP David Lammy, Tooting MP Rosena Allin-Khan or Steve Reed, MP for Streatham and Croydon North who may all be vying to be Labour’s mayoral candidate if he did?

Being London Mayor is an all-consuming job and there are no doubt reasons why Lord Khan might still decide to call it a day after three terms in City Hall.

But this looks significantly less likely than a week ago.

London Mayor Lord Khan has slammed Brexit

AFP/Getty

We don’t yet have a full picture, though, of how the capital will fare under his Government.

His new tax levers will also make him one of the most powerful mayors in Europe and if he uses them wisely his standing may go up in the capital.

So the London mayoral election in May 2028 may have been significantly swayed by the Budget announcements, some 554 days before a single vote is cast.