32%, 24%, 52%, 86%: Why these 4 numbers are bad news for Trump before the midterms

Four numbers from a new Reuters/Ipsos poll highlight the growing political challenges facing President Donald Trump and his Republican Party less than a month before the US midterm elections.

Trump’s overall approval remains at a record low, his support among Hispanic Americans has fallen sharply, Democrats hold a sizeable advantage among Hispanic voters, and an overwhelming majority of Americans oppose taxpayer-funded election-related television ads featuring the President.

Here is what the four numbers reveal.

32%: Trump’s approval remains at a record low

Only 32% of Americans approve of Trump’s performance as President, according to the six-day Reuters/Ipsos poll completed on Monday.

That figure was unchanged from a September Reuters/Ipsos survey, which recorded the lowest approval rating of Trump’s political career.

The poll also found that the cost of living was the top issue for voters deciding how to cast their ballots. Consumer inflation has risen following a surge in gasoline and diesel prices linked to the war with Iran, which Trump launched in February.

Republicans are also losing some of their traditional advantage among older voters. Among Americans aged 50 and above, Republicans led Democrats by just 44% to 42%, compared with an eight-point Republican advantage in December.

Among voters under 50, Democrats held an 18-point lead.

24%: Trump’s Hispanic support hits a low

Trump’s declining support among Hispanic Americans could be particularly significant for Republicans.

Only 24% of Hispanic Americans approve of Trump’s job performance, the lowest level recorded during either of his two presidential terms.

That marks a significant reversal from the 2024 presidential election, when Trump won nearly half of the Hispanic vote, compared with roughly one-third in 2020.

The Reuters/Ipsos findings suggest that some of those gains may be at risk ahead of the midterms, with inflation and the cost of living weighing on voters.

52%: Hispanic voters favour Democrats

The warning for Republicans becomes even clearer when looking at voting intentions.

Among Hispanic registered voters, 52% said they planned to vote for Democratic candidates, compared with just 26% who planned to vote Republican.

The 26-point Democratic advantage is the largest since Trump took office, according to the poll.

Hispanic voters are an important constituency for both parties, and the shift could have consequences in competitive congressional races across the country.

Overall, registered voters preferred Democratic candidates 44% to 37%.

Among independents, Democrats led Republicans 37% to 21%, although 28% of independent registered voters remained undecided.

The findings come as Republicans brace for a difficult election. Analysts have increasingly predicted that Democrats could win control of the House, while the Senate is also becoming more competitive.

86%: Voters reject taxpayer-funded Trump ads

The fourth number presents another challenge for Trump: 86% of Americans said it was inappropriate to use taxpayer money for election-related television advertisements featuring the President or members of his Cabinet.

The figure includes four out of five Republicans, indicating that opposition to the spending extends beyond Trump's political opponents.

The finding comes as three nationally broadcast advertisements featuring Trump have drawn criticism from lawmakers and ethics experts from both parties.

The ads promote themes including a “golden age of America” and a “final battle” against the “deep state”. One features Trump saying, “America will never be a communist country,” while another combines images of Mount Rushmore with footage of Trump praising a “golden age of America”.

Each advertisement carries a disclaimer saying it was paid for by the US government.

Trump and his aides have defended the advertisements as educational and patriotic rather than political.

Trump also said he would pay for the ads himself or use money raised by his MAGA political committee.

Another warning: 71% reject Kennedy Center name change

The poll also found resistance to another Trump initiative.

With Trump’s approval stuck at 32%, just 24% of Hispanic Americans approving of his performance, Hispanic voters favouring Democrats 52%-26%, and 86% rejecting taxpayer-funded Trump ads, the poll offers several warning signs for Republicans heading into the November midterms.