Ole Miss vs. Texas prediction, pick, odds, spread: Arch Manning, Longhorns fight to save their season
Texas is looking to end a two-game skid and get its College Football Playoff hopes back on track against an Ole Miss team coming off its best performance of the year so far
• 4 min read
Arch Manning grew up with Ole Miss all around him. His uncle Eli's jersey was retired in Oxford, and so was his grandfather Archie's No. 18.
On Saturday night, Arch faces the Rebels for the first time, possibly at the lowest point of his career. Questions have swirled around Arch during a two-game losing streak that has the Longhorns on the brink of falling completely out of the polls after rising to No. 1 in September with a comeback win against top-ranked Ohio State.
He threw two interceptions, including a pick-six, in the loss to Oklahoma, and last week he lost a fumble on a strip sack with two minutes remaining, allowing Florida to hold on for a win, Manning's first home loss as a starter. Afterward, Sarkisian said he would evaluate the offense, including Manning's role in the offense.
Now Texas (4-2, 1-2 SEC) is trying to avoid joining 1965 Texas and 1957 Texas A&M as the only teams to lose three straight games in a season after entering as the AP No. 1 team. The Longhorns will be without the nation's sacks leader, Colin Simmons, who has a high ankle sprain.
No. 7 Ole Miss (5-1, 3-1) has won two straight by a combined 63 points and has redisovered its groove following a 28-point win against nationally-ranked Missouri last week.
Ole Miss vs. Texas: Need to know
Arch Manning's evaluation: Manning is expected to start Saturday, but how short will the leash be? Backup KJ Lacey has gotten more first-team reps over the last two weeks, fueling speculation he could step in against the Rebels. Manning threw only seven interceptions in 13 games last season. He's up to five picks through six starts this season.
"He's our starter, but I need to see a better version of Arch Manning like I need to see a better version of a lot of guys on our offensive football team right now, but we need to see a better version of him this week," Sarkisian said.
Life without Colin Simmons: Simmons leads the FBS with 10.5 sacks and 16 tackles for loss. He had eight tackles, four TFL and a sack against Florida before he was carted off in the fourth quarter, and reports have him out three to four weeks. That's a problem against Ole Miss quarterback Trinidad Chambliss, who has thrown a touchdown pass in 19 straight games, tied for the second-longest streak in Ole Miss history. His 20 total touchdowns rank second in the SEC, and Ole Miss leads the FBS in red zone touchdown percentage (87.5%).
Ole Miss rebuilt itself after Florida: The Rebels left Gainesville in September after a 52-28 loss Golding called an "old-fashioned butt whooping." The Gators ran for 302 yards, and Ole Miss managed one tackle for loss and no sacks. Since a bye week, Ole Miss beat Vanderbilt 52-17 on the road and Missouri 31-3 at home. Kewan Lacy (122 yards) and Makhi Frazier (101) both topped 100 yards against the Tigers. The road remains the question. Ole Miss is 1-10 in its last 11 road games against ranked SEC teams, and Golding's lone road game as head coach against a ranked opponent was the loss at No. 21 Florida.
Kewan Lacy comes home: Lacy grew up in Dallas as a Texas fan, and dreamed of playing for the Longhorns, but they never offered the running back a scholarship. "I can't wait to see them," Lacy said this offseason. He has 29 career rushing touchdowns, third in school history and the most in the SEC since 2025, though Golding has managed his workload since he missed the Florida game. His 13-game rushing touchdown streak ended against Missouri, but he still ran for a season-high 122 yards.
Where to watch Ole Miss vs. Texas live
Date: Saturday, Oct. 24 | Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
Location: Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium -- Austin, Texas
TV: ABC | Live stream: Fubo (try free)
Ole Miss vs. Texas: prediction, picks
Texas is a 2.5-point favorite, and the SportsLine model projects a 29-17 Longhorns win. History backs it. Ole Miss is 1-6 straight up and against the spread as a road underdog against ranked teams since 2020, and Texas has won three straight home games against top-10 opponents.
But is this the same Texas team that has been so successful at home? The Longhorns scored 17 points against a Florida defense that ranked last in the SEC, and the Gators sacked Manning five times with 11 tackles for loss. Texas hasn't scored more than 24 points against a power opponent. The offensive line is a mess, ranking 111th in sacks allowed, and the running game is subpar at 101st. The Longhorns are also 1-5 against the spread this season and haven't covered five straight.
Ole Miss has the better quarterback and a run game that just went for 257 yards. Without Simmons, Texas loses the one defender built to wreck Chambliss' night. Texas also lacks championship-level coaching. Pick: Ole Miss +2.5
 Tom Fornelli |  Chip Patterson |  Brandon Marcello |  John Talty |  Richard Johnson |  Shehan Jeyarajah |  David Cobb |  Brad Crawford |  Chris Hummer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MISS -2.5 |  |  | |||||||
| SU |
SportsLine's proven computer model has simulated every Week 8 college football game 10,000 times. Visit SportsLine now to see the picks, all from the model that's on a 59-49 run on top-rated CFB picks this season.
KioskNews shows a cleaned-up reading view extracted from the publisher’s page — the original always lives on their site, not ours.