What's next for Lynx after shocking playoff exit? Next steps hinge on Napheesa Collier's free agent decision

When the Minnesota Lynx opened training camp in April without Napheesa Collier, who was still recovering from offseason surgery on both ankles, and minus six other rotation players from the team that went 34-10 in 2025, a first-round playoff exit sounded like a reasonable outcome. 

And sure enough, the Lynx were eliminated from the playoffs on Tuesday with an 87-71 loss to the New York Liberty -- the preseason title favorites -- in Game 2 of their first-round matchup. 

Most people would have predicted that outcome five months ago. No one would have predicted the route there. 

Thanks to an early eight-game winning streak, the Lynx jumped out to a surprise 10-2 start and never relinquished their hold on sole possession of the No. 1 seed after July 12. By the time Collier returned to action in a July 22 win over the Seattle Storm, the Lynx were 22-6. That victory was part of a separate 10-game winning streak -- the longest by any team in the league this season. 

Olivia Miles, the No. 2 pick in the 2026 WNBA Draft, had burst onto the scene and immediately established herself as one of the league's best point guards. She was scoring and dishing at will; at All-Star Weekend in Chicago, where Miles was a starter, Las Vegas Aces coach Becky Hammon called her "impossible to guard." Miles would go on to set the rookie points record, breaking Caitlin Clark's mark, smash the Lynx franchise rookie records for points and assists, and be named the unanimous Rookie of the Year. 

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Alongside her, veteran free agent additions Natasha Howard and Nia Brodie were shining. Howard, named an All-Star for the first time since 2022, formed a dynamite pick-and-roll partnership with Miles and effectively replaced Collier's production in the first half of the season, while Brodie had one of the best campaigns of her career and provided real value as a floor spacer who could also defend. And, of course, Kayla McBride and Courtney Williams (also named an All-Star) were their usual selves in the backcourt. 

As the World Cup break approached, the Lynx were on the verge of locking up the No. 1 seed and homecourt advantage throughout the playoffs, but they lost their final game to the No. 2 seed, the Golden State Valkyries. After the break, they were never able to regain their mojo. They lost four of six to close the regular season, and backed into the No. 1 seed with just days to spare. 

Worryingly, McBride issued a rare headline-making quote in the final week, when she implored her team to show more of an "F you" mentality. "I'm more concerned about our 'F you' towards the other team. Just going and ripping people's hearts out and taking momentum back and finishing games and putting hammers down," she said.

The Lynx never found that mentality in the playoffs. They fell behind by double digits in the first quarter of both games, and led for just three minutes and 23 seconds in the series. Miles was held to 16 total points on 4 of 20 from the field with just two assists and five turnovers. McBride and Williams shot a combined 20 of 54 (37%) and Collier wasn't much better with just 13 points per game on 42.9% shooting. 

The Lynx lost both games by 16 points, and their minus-32 margin for the series was the worst ever by a No. 1 seed in a best-of-three series, per Her Hoops Stats. Moreover, they were not only the first No. 1 seed to lose a first-round series to a No. 8 seed, they were the first No. 1 seed to lose a first-round game to a No. 8 seed. 

"It sucks, but we're not gonna focus on shit like that," coach Cheryl Reeve said. "It is what it is. Congratulations to New York. They beat us." 

Season at a glance

• Record: 33-11 (No. 1 seed)
• Offensive rating: 112.1 (3rd)
• Defensive rating: 103.5 (4th)
• Net rating: plus-8.6 (2nd)

Biggest strength: Offensive skill

Between Miles' playmaking, Williams' off-the-dribble shooting, McBride's catch-and-shoot presence, Howard's finishing and Collier's all-around game, the Lynx were an incredibly skilled offensive team. They finished third in offensive rating, fourth in true shooting (57.9%), second in 3-point percentage (38.2%) and fifth in turnover rate (16.4%). In the halfcourt, they scored 0.989 points per possession, third behind only the Indiana Fever and Las Vegas Aces. 

Biggest weakness: Size and physicality

The Lynx didn't have the size or physicality to back up their skill when things weren't going their way, and it cost them in the playoffs against a giant Liberty team. Miles, McBride and Williams are all under 6-foot tall, and Howard at 6-foot-2 was their tallest starter. In fact, the only taller active player on the roster was 6-foot-5 Dorka Juhász -- not exactly a bruiser, and someone Reeve didn't fully trust. The Lynx were last in the league in free-throw rate (0.245) and 11th in opponent offensive rebounding rate (32.3%). 

Key free agents

• Napheesa Collier (unrestricted)
• Emma Čechová (reserved)
• Dorka Juhász (reserved)
• Maya Caldwell (restricted)

Biggest question: Could Napheesa Collier depart?

Collier, who was a free agent last offseason along with nearly every other veteran, didn't re-sign with the Lynx until April 17, nearly a week after teams were allowed to commence signings. The delay raised some eyebrows, as did the fact that she signed a one-year supermax via the core qualifying offer while many of her peers -- A'ja Wilson, Breanna Stewart, Alyssa Thomas -- took three-year deals. 

Back in May, Collier wasn't exactly rushing to pledge her long-term future to the Lynx. 

"I am so focused on the now. Like, I just came off two ankle surgeries. I'm trying to get back on the court. And this was such a whirlwind. We had the CBA going on, and all these things, everything was happening so fast. I just wanted to be able to focus on getting on the court with my team this year and winning a championship," Collier said in an interview with NPR, when asked why she only signed for one year. She added that she didn't want to look "too far into the future."

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Now, Collier is an unrestricted free agent again, and there are even more questions about her future in Minneapolis following the Lynx's early exit. Collier answered a few questions following Game 2, but was not asked about her free agency. 

Reeve, who also serves as the Lynx's president of basketball operations, was not asked about Collier specifically, but did hint at making changes to get this group over the hump. 

"I can't foresee the future, but I know we have some work to do. I have to help us, I have to get us the appropriate help to do it, make the hard decisions," Reeve said. "I couldn't get us there in this series. It's on me. I have to help them win in the playoffs. That's on me, both as an executive and as the coach. I'll find a way to do that."

All of the decisions Reeve will have to make will flow from what happens with Collier. 

Path A: Collier returns

Due to the WNBA's new revenue-sharing system, we don't know the exact salary cap figure for the 2027 season, but it will likely be slightly higher than the $7 million set for 2026. Regardless of where it lands, the Lynx have plenty of room to re-sign Collier, and will surely do so in a heartbeat if she is willing to sign a long-term deal. 

The rest of the Lynx's core -- McBride, Williams, Howard, Miles and Brodie -- is already under contract for 2027, and if Collier returns, they could run back the same group and be a very good team again. 

However, they would have limited cap space to address some of their weaknesses. And when Reeve spoke about making "hard decisions," you have to wonder if that would involve trading one or more members of this group to try to add some size and physicality. 

Path B: Collier leaves

If Collier decides to leave Minnesota -- which has to be taken as a real possibility -- the Lynx's offseason gets a lot more complicated. Notably, they were in first place before Collier returned, and had a much better record without her (22-6) than with her (11-7, including the playoffs). 

To avoid losing Collier for nothing, the Lynx would likely try to come up with a sign-and-trade with whichever team she wants to join, but that is no guarantee. And even if a sign-and-trade is possible, what would they try to get back in return? Veterans who could address their weaknesses and boost their depth, giving them a chance to compete again next season with the group that was so successful before Collier's return? Or younger players and/or picks more on Miles' timeline, who could help sustain the franchise long-term. 

Should Collier simply walk in free agency, the Lynx would be in a much tougher spot. The free agent pool is nowhere near as deep as it was last season, but Reeve has shown an ability to get the most out of players. Would she look to use the money they would have spent on Collier on multiple players to create a more balanced roster and go into next season looking to compete again? 

Or, would she look to the future and trade one or more veterans for younger players and/or picks to pair with Miles? Reeve has never been interested in rebuilding, but sometimes you have to take a step back to move forward. If she doesn't think this group can actually win a title next season, it may make more sense to start thinking about building around Miles now, rather than waiting until next offseason when McBride, Williams, Howard and Brodie will all be free agents. 

WNBA Draft outlook

The Lynx have their first-round and third-round picks -- Nos. 15 and 45 -- in the 2027 WNBA Draft. 

No. 15, the final selection of the first round, is the only one that will actually matter. This team could look significantly different by the time the draft rolls around, but for now, let's assume that most of this group is back. In that case, frontcourt depth is the most obvious need. Unfortunately for the Lynx, this is a backcourt-heavy draft. 

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Kentucky center Clara Strack will likely not be on the board at No. 15. It's possible South Carolina bigs Chloe Kitts or Ashlyn Watkins would be, but that also feels unlikely. In that case, the Lynx's best bet is probably Khamil Pierre. 

Pierre was a double-double machine at NC State last season, plays with a high motor and can put the ball on the deck. At 6-foot-2, though, she would not address their lack of size down low.