AI Insiders Far More Bullish Than Public On Nobel-Level Discovery

91% of Anthropic's staff expect AI to make a Nobel-level discovery by 2030, against 39% of US adults, according to a report released by the Claude maker's research arm.

Morning Consult surveyed 10,980 US adults between August 11 and August 23, weighted to be nationally representative, while Anthropic ran an internal poll of 1,334 staff between August 9 and August 12.

"Anthropic staff build and use frontier AI every day. The second survey therefore shows how people closest to the technology anticipate its future, both in capabilities and in broader economic impact," the report notes.

While Anthropic staff expect AI to be able to do 75% of their work by 2030, US workers expect 28%.

Over half of staff expect AI to do at least 80% of their work, compared to only 5% of US workers.

Among US adults who use AI at work, 26% say a task takes a quarter of the time or less with AI, compared with 59% of Anthropic staff.

"Among both US workers and Anthropic staff, people who expect AI to do more of their own work anticipate higher unemployment. While there are differences in beliefs about future capabilities, the perceived link between how AI might change one's own job and broader unemployment is very similar for both groups," the report says.

Anthropic staff expect to keep hiring with  95% saying Anthropic's headcount would grow within a year. To be sure, these are the employees' personal views and not company plans.

A later September survey of 7,613 adults by Morning Consult put the Nobel-level share at 44%, up from the 39% August figure.

In a separate report, Anthropic pointed out that the share of junior technical staff it hires has fallen sharply as AI agents take on more work. The company said it could be an early signal for other employers.
READ | Entry-Level Tech Hiring Is Slowing At Anthropic. Its Report Explains Why