'Grumpy' voters in Murray Plains consider party allegiances as election looms

Darren Connelly is sitting at his cluttered kitchen table, a 24-hour news channel paused on the TV in the living room.

Aged in his 60s, he's joined a political party for the first time in his life and thrown his support behind One Nation.

"They could put a blue heeler as the candidate, and I'd still vote for them."

The earthmoving operator and former president of the local racing club says he typically voted for the Coalition, and once for Shooters, Fishers and Farmers when gun control was on the agenda.

But he's had enough.

"You've got shiny arse-polish bloody professional politicians. They say one thing and do another," he says.

His hometown of Kerang sits in the Murray Plains electorate, in northern Victoria, which has been a Nationals stronghold since the 1980s.

The local member is retiring at the November state election after 24 years.

The town itself has seen plenty of change in that time.

Jobs in agriculture and food manufacturing have declined in the fallout of federal water reform, and now land once home to family farms hosts solar, wind and battery projects.

Mr Connelly wants to "turn the clock way back" and sees the election as his chance.

"The others need to be taught a lesson," he says.

"Get rid of the bloody bureaucracy."

The race is on

Kerang is a short drive from the NSW border where earlier this year David Farley became One Nation's first federal MP at the Farrer by-election.

Bright yellow pockets of canola indicate harvest is a few months away, and worn roads crumble in more places than 'rough surface' warnings can alert weary drivers to.

The state seat of Murray Plains stretches more than 200 kilometres along the Murray River from Swan Hill to Echuca and Kyabram.

Gannawarra Shire mayor Garner Smith is the candidate One Nation hopes will wrest the seat from the Coalition.

Up until now, he's been linked with the National Party as an electorate officer and ministerial adviser for two Nationals politicians and as a Young Nationals state president.

The ABC approached One Nation to request an interview with Cr Smith but were told only written answers to questions were being provided.

The party did not provide responses to those questions.

Cr Smith told a council meeting this week he would step aside as mayor on September 30 and ask for his council allowance to be suspended, though he will remain a councillor to avoid leaving the council "unacceptably thin".

At nearby Swan Hill there's tension between the old guard and the new.

John Forrest, former long-serving Nationals MP for the federal seat, is on the committee of the Swan Hill Neighbourhood House.

He's glaring across a table at the party's candidate for Murray Plains, Brett Hosking.

"You'll be battling to hold this seat," Mr Forrest warns.

"There's no such thing as a safe seat, let me assure you. And that's the reason why Hanson's getting so much popularity, because they're really cheesed off; they've been neglected for too long."

Mr Forrest criticises Mr Hosking for turning up without his "chequebook open" and calls the meeting a "publicity stunt" for the ABC, which has been invited to attend the neighbourhood house for this story.

Neighbourhood houses across Victoria are campaigning for more funding from the state government.

The community spaces provide programs and services such as food relief, transport and social events.

A funding shortfall has forced the Swan Hill Neighbourhood House to close each Friday after years of operating five days a week.

Co-manager Sarina Kelly tells Mr Hosking the major parties have failed them.

"There's 400 houses all doing amazing things to support their communities and over half of them are struggling to keep the lights on," she says.

Mr Hosking is a fifth-generation mixed farmer who's recently stepped down as the president of the Victorian Farmers Federation (VFF).

His wife is the chair of the neighbourhood house in their tiny hometown of Quambatook.

"Full disclosure, I can't go home at night without fighting for it," he says.

"We have a plan to make sure communities are supported, rural Victoria is supported, and I will fight hard for that."

Mr Hosking says he doesn't see Murray Plains as a safe Nationals seat.

"I see it as something that I've got to earn," he says.

"Every election, every person who lives in our community should make a decision about what's important to them, what their values are and how they want to be represented."

'Confronting' change

Ash and Bec Marshall are grain growers in Normanville, just south of Kerang.

Their family home is an island among crops as far as the eye can see.

But there are plans for wind turbines the size of skyscrapers here.

At the kitchen table, Bec points out their farming properties on a printed map.

Highlighted areas show an approved wind farm to the immediate north of their home, and two others proposed to the south and north-west.

Ash draws a line to show roughly where the VNI West transmission line is set to cut through one of their smaller properties, as it carries power between NSW and Victoria.

Normanville falls in one of the state's five renewable energy zones earmarking the "best" places for wind, solar and battery projects.

"It's actually really confronting. It's probably the biggest change since clearing of land for agricultural use," Mr Marshall says.

The family fears how life in their home will be affected by possible noise and light flicker from the turbines.

Both One Nation and the Coalition have pledged to scrap VNI West if elected in November.

The decision has been welcomed by the VFF but criticised by bodies including the Clean Energy Council and Environment Victoria, who say the move risks energy security and will increase power bills.

"We're just looking for people to be honest and commit to the policy they can provide, so we can make a good decision for us," Ms Marshall says.

Another controversial government policy in the bush, a higher tax to fund emergency services, already had Ash Marshall offside.

He was among thousands who rallied against the tax outside parliament in Melbourne last year.

Now with the thought of being called to fight fires on or started by renewable projects, he's considering hanging up the hose after more than 20 years as a Country Fire Authority volunteer.

"Even in six weeks we've gone from any vote to get away from Labor, to stop the Labor government, but then what? 

"So then we start to think what are One Nation going to do? Where are the Coalition at?" he says.

"Country people are good people," 

"They're turning good people into grumpy people and really angry people."

Apology for comments

Claire Mason has returned to her childhood home in Kerang to be a full-time carer for her dad, who has Parkinson's disease and dementia.

In the time before the next fitness class, she runs out of her shed, she's sitting on the verandah in the morning sun while keeping one eye on a monitor inside the house.

It means the day-to-day dramas of state politics take a back seat.

But comments about women and domestic violence hit close to home.

As a councillor, Garner Smith was forced to apologise by a council arbiter in 2022 for comments he made on his Facebook page.

Responding to an article about a leaked video appearing to show former AFL player Dustin Martin groping a topless woman, Cr Smith wrote; "I'd be more worried if he didn't go in for a feel".

He then replied in the comment thread, saying: "To all you triggered, whingeing, whining, bleating, bitching, offended losers, instead of getting a skinny soy latte with a twist of lemon, head to your local independent hardware store, buy a bag of cement and harden the #@&! up."

Ms Mason says the comments perpetuate misogyny and sexism.

"When people in leadership positions can say things like that, it just gives men more green light to continue that behaviour."

Cr Smith did not respond to the ABC's question about these comments, but was asked if he stood by them on ABC Mildura-Swan Hill breakfast radio in August.

"There's bigger ticket items to deal with. I did not pass any opinion on women," he said.

Either way, Ms Mason says she won't be voting for One Nation in November.

"I always lean towards the Greens, but I'm not right across it. I probably have to wait to see what happens [in the campaign]," she says.

Zoe Cook, a Campaspe Shire councillor, is running for the Greens on a platform of public transport and housing.

While she doesn't support scrapping VNI West, Cr Cook is calling for more consultation before it progresses.

She says she understands why people in the electorate are upset.

"They're seeing that they have less control over the infrastructure crumbling around them, and then this is the last straw of not being consulted.

"At the end of the day, the climate crisis is upon us and worsening, and we need to be investing in renewable infrastructure," she says.

Election 'test'

Zareh Ghazarian, associate professor of politics at Monash University, says Victoria's three-cornered contest between Labor, the Coalition and One Nation is shaping as one of the hardest elections to predict.

While local issues can lead to a hunger for change, he says Australians are fatigued by the major parties.

"Opinion polling suggests voters are being persuaded potentially to vote for One Nation, because they feel that is a party seeking to represent new ideas and new solutions."

Labor is yet to name a candidate to contest the seat of Murray Plains.

But Mr Ghazarian cautioned against using the results of by-elections, such as Farrer, to predict a win for One Nation in Murray Plains.

"I think dynamics will change when it becomes a general election. The debate focuses on all sorts of things, not just local issues.

"This is a test for One Nation — whether it is actually enjoying wide support and whether that support is enough for it to win seats."