Is the world turning against the Islamic Republic of Iran? - analysis

On Monday, 10 countries – the United States, Argentina, Canada, Colombia, Costa Rica, the Dominican Republic, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, and Trinidad and Tobago – issued a joint statement condemning what they described as Iranian terrorist activity and malign influence across the Americas.

“These hostile efforts include a range of Iranian and proxy-sponsored lethal plotting, illicit fundraising, political interference and foreign influence activities, and operations meant to bolster terrorist networks, coerce perceived enemies, compromise legal or administrative processes, and harm regional security,” the statement read. “We stand united in our determination to protect our countries and our people against such threats.  The Islamic Republic of Iran and its proxies must halt these actions now.”

Three days earlier, an even broader coalition had issued its own warning to the Iranians.

Fifty-six countries, ranging from the United States, Britain, France, and Germany to Bahrain, Morocco, Japan, South Korea, Colombia, Argentina, Paraguay, and Yemen, reaffirmed their commitment to enforcing the UN restrictions restored against Iran last year. The signatories pledged to prevent transfers that could assist Iran’s nuclear, missile, drone, and weapons programs and to increase cooperation against Iranian proliferation.

Taken individually, neither statement marks a fundamental change in the international order or the way the world has tried to contain the Islamic Republic. But taken alongside other developments over the past several months, however, they raise a larger question: Is the world beginning to turn against the Islamic Republic?

South American countries breaking from Iran

Some of the clearest evidence has come from Latin America.

Colombia formally broke diplomatic relations with Iran on September 19, citing Iran’s alleged links to terrorist and narcoterrorist groups, human rights abuses, attacks on countries outside the conflict, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and obstruction of the International Atomic Energy Agency. Days later, the country went even further, designating the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist organization and announcing measures aimed at preventing people associated with it from entering Colombia.

What is interesting there is Bogota's change of direction. Colombia has hardly marched in lockstep with Israel in recent years, so this decision cannot be put down to a move by a traditionally pro-Israel government.

There is also a question mark over Venezuela.

Although there has been no official designation of any Iranian entity, nor any statements, it was announced in August that Venezuela’s post-Maduro government is establishing an official consular channel with Israel for the first time in 17 years.

After two wars with Israel in the past 14 months, Iran may worry that its influence in Venezuela, which was secured through the Chavez and Maduro governments, will now be tested.

Elsewhere in the region, Argentina has hardened its stance under President Javier Milei, while Paraguay has emerged as an increasingly vocal opponent of Iranian and Hezbollah activity in Latin America. The October 5 declaration suggests that those individual positions are increasingly becoming a coordinated regional effort.

Europe starts to see Iran as terrorist state

Europe has also begun to put words into action.

In February, before war broke out on February 28 between the US, Israel and Iran, the European Union formally placed the IRGC on its terrorist list, freezing its assets and prohibiting EU operators from making funds available to it. Britain followed in July by moving against the IRGC under its new state-threat legislation.

In June, some 22 Western governments issued another joint statement accusing the IRGC Intelligence Organization, Quds Force, and Iranian intelligence services of lethal plotting abroad, including against Iranian dissidents, journalists, and Jewish and Israeli communities.

Meanwhile, the war has widened the group of countries prepared to confront Tehran.

Middle Eastern nations dragged into conflict, cooperate against proxies

Perhaps nowhere is that more significant than in the Gulf. Before the fighting began, Gulf governments went to considerable lengths to avoid being dragged into an Israel-Iran confrontation and stressed that their territory would not be used to attack Iran.

Iranian missile and drone attacks changed all that. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Jordan joined the United States in March in condemning Iranian attacks against countries across the region. Later that month, a larger grouping including Egypt, Turkey, Pakistan, Azerbaijan, Lebanon, and Syria condemned Iranian missile and drone attacks on neighboring states.

By July, all six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) members and Jordan were again jointly condemning continued Iranian and proxy attacks against their territory and civilian infrastructure.

Russia, China, other nations maintain relationships with Iran

None of this, however, means that Iran has become internationally friendless.

Russia and China remain crucial counterbalances to Western pressure, helping to provide Iran with military and economic aid, while Iran retains important relationships across parts of Asia, Africa, and the Middle East. Qatar continues to serve as an intermediary between the US and Iran, and even governments furious over Iranian attacks have repeatedly emphasized diplomacy instead of any further escalation.

Nor should every country appearing on a joint statement be interpreted as joining some new anti-Iran alliance. We can ask what each country’s motives are. Some are primarily concerned with nuclear proliferation, others with terrorism, maritime security, human rights, or attacks on their own territory.

What has changed, though, is the breadth of the countries confronting the Islamic Republic regime, and the range of issues bringing them together.

The Islamic Republic now faces European governments treating the IRGC as a terrorist or state-security threat, Latin American governments severing ties and coordinating against Iranian networks, dozens of countries seeking to restrict its nuclear and missile programs, and Arab states publicly condemning Iranian attacks on their soil.

Many of these governments disagree profoundly over many issues, including Israel, Gaza, the United States, and the future of the Middle East. But more and more, they are finding themselves aligned in how they deal with the Islamic Republic.