High Temperatures Persist Across Kenya Despite Onset Of Short Rains

Kenyans have raised concerns over persistent hot days in Nairobi and other parts of the country, where high daytime temperatures continue to linger despite the ongoing October-November-December rainy season. The unusually warm conditions have left many questioning why prolonged dry spells and bright sunshine are occurring during a period expected to bring enhanced rainfall. However, meteorologists clarify that seasonal rainfall forecasts do not imply continuous downpours or lower temperatures every day. According to weather expert Maithya wa Vilivū, predictive models indicate Nairobi could experience above-average temperatures through the remainder of 2026 into early 2027, with figures running between 0.5°C and 1.5°C above normal.

The assessment places the median temperature increase at roughly 1.1°C, with short-term daytime highs for Nairobi projected between 28°C and 30°C, and localized areas exceeding 30°C.Interacting Climate Drivers and Regional PatternsExpert analysis attributes the current weather fluctuations to complex interactions between El Niño and other key climate drivers, such as the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), Kelvin waves, and tropical cyclone activity in the Indian Ocean. These systems actively influence moisture circulation and the temporal distribution of rainfall across East Africa.

The IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) has projected enhanced rainfall for much of the Greater Horn of Africa during the final quarter, though the timing, onset, and spatial distribution of precipitation remain varied across locations.Officers at the Kenya Meteorological Service Authority (KMSA) emphasized that localized delays in rainfall onset do not signal a shift in the overall seasonal outlook. They noted that the presence or strength of El Niño alone does not guarantee uniform daily rainfall amounts for every county.Broader Climate Dynamics and Regional ExtremesThe warm domestic conditions coincide with broader international climate trends. According to the Reuters Climate Monitor’s Heat Storm Tracker, global heat waves are projected to cover up to 32.1 percent of the planet’s surface, impacting an estimated 1.7 billion people. Over the past five years, heat storms covered an average of 18.1 percent of the Earth’s surface daily, compared to just 2.1 percent between 1961 and 1990.Nationally, the Kenya Met Department warns that maximum daytime temperatures exceeding 35°C will persist in northern and eastern counties, including Garissa, Wajir, Tana River, Isiolo, Kilifi, Marsabit, Samburu, and Turkana.