Michigan vs. Indiana prediction, picks, odds, spread: Tommy Carr era begins against Hoosiers
No. 6 Indiana looks to rebound from a loss to Ohio State, while Michigan begins again at quarterback
• 4 min read
The Tommy Carr era in Ann Arbor will officially get underway this Saturday when the freshman quarterback makes his first career start at home against No. 6 Indiana.
Carr led a second-half comeback last week against Penn State after former five-star recruit Bryce Underwood was benched, and Michigan made the decision to fully turn the operation over to Carr against an extremely good Indiana defense. That will present a major challenge for Carr, but it also shows Michigan's faith in him as the best option against the defending champs.
Indiana comes into the game trying to shake off the frustration of a loss at home to Ohio State last week, coming a literal foot away from a win had Nick Marsh been able to keep his feet in bounds on a wide-open fourth-down pass from Josh Hoover. The Hoosiers need to refocus after the disappointment of their first loss in two years, as they head into the Big House to face a Michigan team that may not be elite on offense but will still present a stiff test for an Indiana offense that's been out of sync recently.
The Hoosiers are 7.5-point road favorites, but the Wolverines suddenly have a bit of life after last week's win, and the excitement for a new quarterback will create a lively atmosphere in Ann Arbor.
Michigan vs. Indiana: Need to know
Tommy Carr's first start: Carr took over for Bryce Underwood at halftime against Penn State and performed solidly, leading three Michigan touchdown drives -- that came off three Penn State turnovers. While he only threw for 47 yards, playing complementary football and cashing in on great defensive plays to turn them into points is a major step forward for this Michigan offense. However, doing that against a bad Penn State team is one thing; now Carr will face an Indiana defense that's among the best in the country.
He'll be tasked with not turning the ball over and taking what's in front of him, but Indiana will know that as well, and Michigan might have to let Carr turn it loose a couple of times down the field if they're going to force the Hoosiers off the line of scrimmage. Michigan knows this will be an extremely difficult first start for Carr and will likely try to protect him with quick concepts and a run-heavy approach, but if they want to pull off the upset, Carr is going to have to deliver a couple big plays Indiana's not expecting.
Can Indiana establish a rhythm?: A stop-start offense has been a problem all season for Indiana, and while they escaped the first six games without it costing them, it finally caught up in Columbus. Now they face a Michigan defense that is also excellent and will present plenty of challenges, and Josh Hoover will have to prove he can move the ball consistently through the air.
Indiana's offense has been predicated much more on the big play than they'd like this season, as Hoover has been able to create explosives in the passing game to Charlie Becker and Nick Marsh. However, consistency has been lacking, and that's kept the Hoosiers from pulling away from opponents as they did a year ago. Against Ohio State, Hoover threw for 296 yards, but completed just 20 of 40 passes to do so. He will need to figure out how to be sharper in the underneath and intermediate passing game if Indiana's going to have a chance of repeating, and that starts this week given the challenge Michigan will present up front.
Elite run defenses: The Hoosiers and Wolverines are two of the nation's best defenses against the run, and that presents real problems for offenses that want to lean on their rushing attacks. Indiana struggled to get anything going against Ohio State, even with Turbo Richard back in the lineup, and they'll be up against it again with a Michigan defense that allows a paltry 2.68 yards per carry. One of the six teams better than Michigan against the run is Indiana, allowing just 2.28 yards per carry, which will put even more pressure on Carr to produce through the air in his first start. The team that can establish some kind of ground game will gain an advantage in this one, but there's a real possibility that neither can break through the walls of these defensive fronts.
Where to watch Michigan vs. Indiana live
Date: Saturday, Oct. 24 | Time: 12 p.m. ET
Location: Michigan Stadium -- Ann Arbor, Michigan
TV: Fox | Live stream: Fubo (try free)
Michigan vs. Indiana prediction, picks
We've got two elite run defenses, one inconsistent passing attack and one freshman making his first start. That is a recipe for a low-scoring battle. Michigan has played five games against teams not named UTEP, and all five games have finished with fewer than 40 points. Indiana's last two games have finished in the 30s as well, as they've faced the two best defenses on their schedule thus far, and it's hard to see a game flow here leading to anything approaching a shootout. The fear here is the potential for defensive scores, but even so, give me the under in Ann Arbor for the second straight week. Pick: Under 41.5
 Tom Fornelli |  Chip Patterson |  Brandon Marcello |  John Talty |  Richard Johnson |  Shehan Jeyarajah |  David Cobb |  Brad Crawford |  Chris Hummer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IU -7.5 |  |  | |||||||
| SU |
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