State prepares evacuations as El Niño rains threaten flooding

What you need to know:

• In Nairobi, about 100,000 people are likely to be affected, with informal settlements and other flood-prone areas identified as vulnerable.
• Several major roads in Nairobi, including Uhuru Highway, Jogoo Road, Bunyala Road and Mombasa Road, are expected to experience flooding.

The government has identified flood-prone areas in Nairobi for possible evacuation and prepared temporary holding grounds as it steps up preparations for heavy rains expected from the second or third week of October.

Deputy President Kithure Kindiki said authorities had mapped areas where residents may need to be moved and were preparing food, medical supplies and other assistance for those evacuated.

He said alerts and evacuation orders would be issued when necessary, with the government promising that any relocation would be carried out humanely and with adequate notice.

In Nairobi, about 100,000 people are likely to be affected, with informal settlements and other flood-prone areas including Mukuru, Mathare, Kibra, Embakasi, Dagoretti South, Makadara and the Wetlands identified as vulnerable.

Several major roads in the city, including Uhuru Highway, Jogoo Road, Bunyala Road and Mombasa Road, are also expected to experience flooding.

The Nairobi County disaster management department, under Chief Officer Bramwel Simiyu, has begun unclogging drainage systems and clearing storm-water channels ahead of the rains.

"We have mapped out all the choke points which cause us flooding, and those choke points are being unclogged, they are being dredged, they are being opened, and this is a partnership between the county government and the Nairobi River Commission. We are using the Green Army from the Nairobi County Government and the Climate Works youth contingent from the national government through the State Department for Urban Development," Prof Kindiki said.

The warning came as Water Cabinet Secretary Erick Mugaa cautioned communities living along rivers to expect water levels to rise above normal as enhanced rains set in, raising the risk of flooding in riverine areas.

Speaking during Mara Day celebrations in Bomet, Mr Mugaa said weather experts were projecting higher-than-normal rainfall and urged communities to prepare for possible flooding.

“We are working with the East African Community and Lake Victoria Basin Commission in El Niño preparedness, with the clear indication by the experts that we are set to face higher rainfall,” Mr Mugaa said.

The warning has particular significance for the Mara basin, which Kenya shares with Tanzania and where authorities say human activity upstream has already altered the river’s course.

Tanzania’s Tarime District Commissioner, Major Edward Golowe, said siltation caused by activities upstream had pushed the Mara River off course downstream, increasing the risk to families living along the shared waterway.

“The Mara River is a shared resource and a rise in the water volume affects families living upstream and downstream,” Mr Golowe said, calling for Kenya and Tanzania to prepare jointly for the rains.

The warnings come as the government moves to put in place a wider national response to the expected rains, with the National Disaster Operations Centre coordinating preparations across agencies and counties.

Prof Kindiki, who spoke after an El Niño preparedness meeting in Karen, Nairobi, on Thursday, said weather projections indicated that rainfall in the capital could be particularly heavy from the second or third week of October.

“Weather forecast projections have shown a likelihood that the precipitation in Nairobi will be high, and it is expected that the second and the third week of October is when the rains will set in,” he said.

Nairobi is a particular concern because of its vulnerability to flooding and the potential disruption to roads, drainage systems and electricity supplies.

Authorities have mapped flood “choke points” across the city, with work under way to unclog, dredge and open drainage channels ahead of the rains.

The exercise involves the Nairobi County Government and Nairobi River Commission, with the county’s Green Army and the national government’s Climate Works youth contingent taking part.

“That work is ongoing, and we have directed this morning that the works be expedited,” Prof Kindiki said.

The government is also preparing for possible power disruptions, with inspections of electricity and transmission lines under way through the State Department for Energy.

Prof Kindiki said the government was working with Kenya Power, county governments and communities to reduce outages caused by trees falling on transmission lines.

He also raised concern over vandalism of critical infrastructure, particularly energy installations, saying the matter would be taken up by the National Security Council and other government agencies.

The Deputy President said the government had addressed budget constraints that could have affected its preparedness and response, and assured Nairobi residents that authorities were monitoring the situation.

“On behalf of the President and on behalf of the Government of Kenya, I assure the people of Kenya that we are prepared, and both levels of government, national and county governments, are taking the onset of the El Niño rains very seriously,” Prof Kindiki said.

Mr Mugaa said the Ministry of Water, Sanitation and Irrigation was using gauging stations across most catchments to monitor river flows and provide real-time information from upstream and downstream points.

“We have monitoring stations with real-time data upstream and downstream of the rivers and valleys which help us advise communities to be cautious or move to higher ground,” he said.

He said the data had enabled the government to predict dam spillages and take action to protect lives and property.

The National Disaster Operations Centre has been brought into the preparedness effort, while the Ministry of Water is also undertaking desilting of dams, including some built during the colonial period.

Mr Mugaa urged households and businesses to harvest rainwater for domestic and commercial use, saying this would reduce the amount of runoff flowing downstream and clogging drainage systems.

The government’s preparedness plan extends beyond Nairobi.

The Ministry of Interior said NDOC was coordinating national monitoring and response, bringing together security agencies, county governments, health authorities, road agencies, humanitarian organisations and other emergency responders.

The centre is expected to combine forecasts from the Kenya Meteorological Department with information from counties and other agencies to guide decisions on evacuation, rescue and deployment of emergency resources.

County commissioners, deputy county commissioners, chiefs and assistant chiefs have been tasked with translating national forecasts into local preparedness measures.

These include identifying flood and landslide hotspots, mapping people living in riparian and other high-risk areas, assessing evacuation routes and centres, and identifying available rescue personnel, vehicles, boats and other emergency equipment.

The administrators are also expected to bring together governors, county disaster teams, security agencies, health officials, road authorities and humanitarian organisations for preparedness meetings.

At community level, chiefs and assistant chiefs will use public barazas, community networks, places of worship and local radio to relay warnings.

Authorities say special attention will be given to vulnerable groups, including older people, persons with disabilities, children and pregnant women, who may require additional assistance during evacuations.

The National Police Service will support evacuations, traffic management, protection of evacuated homes and businesses and security at temporary shelters and relief distribution centres.

The Kenya Defence Forces and National Youth Service may also be deployed where additional search-and-rescue, engineering or logistical capacity is needed.

Schools, hospitals and transport networks are also being asked to prepare for possible disruption, including flooded roads, interruption of access to health services, disease outbreaks and effects on learning and national examinations.

Clerics under the umbrella of the Association of Religious Practitioners Professionals (AREPP) have announced plans to join the government in preparing for the expected El Niño rains, which meteorologists have forecast will bring above-average rainfall during the short-rains season.

In a statement, the association’s chief executive officer, Dr Ezekiel Muendo, said 470 actors and 940 volunteers had been activated across the country to prepare for and respond to the El Niño phenomenon.

“We are ready to implement the action plan together with the lead team and other stakeholders between October 2026 and March 2027 because of the aftermath of the rains. Our places of worship are open to use as rescue centres and operation grounds,” Dr Muendo said.

Additional reporting By Kevin Cheruiyot

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