Israeli Elections Exit Polls: Netanyahu’s coalition holds narrow edge as Arab parties emerge kingmaker in close contest

Exit polls show Netanyahu’s Likud leading the vote, but his bloc and opposition leader Gadi Eisenkot’s alliance are each projected to win 51 seats, short of the 61 needed for majority. Arab-led parties could influence coalition talks, while failure to form a government may trigger another election.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and opposition leader Gadi Eisenkot are neck and neck in the country’s first election since the 2023 Hamas attacks. According to exit polls, there's no clear winner and no obvious path to a governing majority.

Netanyahu’s Likud Party appears to have gotten the most votes, the Associated Press reported. But the exit polls by major Israeli TV stations indicate that support for his religious-national coalition dropped significantly.

Exit polls show tight race

Exit polls suggested his opponents, led by Gadi Eisenkot, could secure a solid majority in the next parliament. But the opposition too is likely to fall short of a clear majority to form the next government.

Quick answers to key questions

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QUESTIONS

Exit polls show a close contest, with Netanyahu’s bloc and the opposition each projected to win about 51 seats in some polls. Likud appears to be the largest party, but neither bloc has a clear path to a majority.

A party or coalition needs at least 61 seats in the 120-seat Knesset to form a parliamentary majority. Exit polls suggest neither main bloc has reached that threshold on its own.

Exit polls project Arab-led parties to win about 19 seats, while the two main blocs are short of a majority. Netanyahu has ruled out an alliance with them, while Eisenkot has signaled he may work with them under certain conditions.

Yes. The largest party does not automatically form the government; Netanyahu could remain in power if Likud and its potential allies can assemble a governing coalition with enough seats.

If coalition talks fail, Israel could hold new elections early next year. A minority government is also possible, but it would need support or cooperation from parties outside the government to pass legislation.

Exit polls indicate that both Netanyahu's bloc and the opposition alliance are on track to win 51 seats in parliament. That would leave each side well below the 61 seats needed to form a government with a parliamentary majority.

Advantage for Arab parties

This has left the doors wide open for disparate parties, including Arab-led parties, to play a key role in the next government formation. Exit polls show that Arab-led parties are on track to win 19 seats.

Netanyahu, who in the past has allied with far-right and ultra-Orthodox religious parties, including Jewish Power, led by Itamar Ben-Gvir and the Religious Zionism Party, led by Bezalel Smotrich, two key members of his cabinet, has already ruled out any alliance with Arab outfits.

Netanyahu also warned earlier Tuesday that Arab parties could make or break the election, saying they were receiving “truly massive support” and heading to the polls in “unprecedented numbers.”

Can Eisenkot work with Arab parties

Eisenkot, on the other hand, has signaled he is ready to work with them under certain conditions, but that could risk alienating some of his partners.

Key Israeli Arab leader Mansour Abbas said he believed the right had "suffered a major loss" and was open to working with Eisenkot. Arab can also extend support to an Eisenkot government from outside without joining a coalition.

However, this would be a tightrope walk for Eisenkot, who shares many of Netanyahu's views on security and has backed the Gaza offensive following the October 7 attack. If successful, Eisenkot, the son of working-class Moroccan Jewish immigrants, would be the first Israeli prime minister of Middle Eastern or North African descent.

What happens if coalition talks fail

If no sides can put together a coalition, new elections could be held early next year. Israel held five elections between April 2019 and November 2022 because of a similar stalemate.

No single party has ever won an outright majority in the country’s 120-seat parliament, forcing political leaders to forge coalitions. Minority governments are also possible, but they must rely on support or cooperation from parties outside the government to pass legislation.

About the Author

Bobins loves telling the human side of all stories, from the intersection of geopolitics, international relations, and conflicts around the world. In his nearly one-and-a-half-decade career as a journalist, Bobins has covered South Asia, the Middle East, and North America, from elections to mass protests and conflicts. <br> Bobins has also done extensive reporting on environmental issues, climate change, and sustainability, focusing on solutions and people working to make the planet a better place to live. <br> In 2018, Bobins was awarded by Times Internet for the impact of his story on Delhi tree cuttings. Bobins also loves telling the stories of Indian startups and the journey of their founders. <br> Total Years of Experience: 14 <br> Years of experience at LM: Bobins has been a part of Live Mint since February 2026 <br> Interests: When he is not tracking conflicts, Bobins loves to cook, travel across India, click photos, and watch documentaries on history. Past Experience: Before joining Live Mint, Bobins worked with The Indian Express, where he led the Global Breaking News coverage, Indiatimes, where he led the news team, covering everything trending, ANI, where the focus of his coverage was South Asia, and NBS News. <br> Current Role: Bobins is currently working as an Assistant Editor at Live Mint.