Octa: Most Filipinos await evidence vs Sara Duterte in impeach trial

MANILA, Philippines — While most Filipinos remained undecided on whether Vice President Sara Duterte should be convicted in her ongoing impeachment trial, more Filipinos expressed support for either her conviction or acquittal, results from a survey conducted by Octa Research showed.

READ: VP impeachment trial: What the prosecution presented in 3 articles

Based on the results of Octa’s survey conducted Sept. 28 to Oct. 4, Filipinos who said they would need to see the evidence against Duterte first dropped to 47 percent from 55 percent in July.

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“Combined, 46 percent now state a preferred verdict, up from 38 percent in July,” Octa noted.

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Of the 46 percent, 21 percent have voiced their support for conviction—slightly lower than the 25 percent who said they believe Duterte should be acquitted.

READ: From 4 to 1: Impeachment court OKs reduced raps vs Sara Duterte

Meanwhile, 6 percent of the respondents said they were either undecided or have no opinion.

Octa noted that these figures proved that Filipinos have yet to reach a consensus on the matter, as the gap between acquittal and conviction remain unchanged since July and that either side has yet to reflect a majority.

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“The gap is too small to be read as a clear national lead, and the evidence-first group remains the single largest bloc,” Octa said.

In terms of regional variance, however, support for conviction rose the highest in Metro Manila from 19 to 34 percent, while acquittal slipped from 21 to 17 percent.

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In contrast, acquittal jumped from 41 to 52 percent in Mindanao—reflecting the only major area where a verdict already commands a majority.

Octa’s survey results also highlighted how the shift in beliefs moved the most among young adults (18 to 24 years old), with those waiting for evidence dropping from 50 percent to 29 percent. 

Meanwhile, those supporting conviction among the youth rose from 26 percent to 36 percent, almost as much as acquittal from 16 percent to 27 percent. 

With these results, Octa noted that the next round of surveys will be the first to capture the public’s reaction to the prosecution finishing their presentation of evidence, including their decision to narrow the case to a single article. 

“It will show whether the evidence-first group continues to shrink, and whether those who leave it move toward one verdict or continue to divide,” Octa noted.

Octa’s survey was conducted through face-to-face interviews, with a total of 1,200 respondents aged 18 and above.

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It had a ±3 percent margin of error at a 95% percent confidence level, with a ±6 percent margin of error each for Metro Manila, Balance Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao. /jpv