2026 College Football Playoff bracket projection: UCLA just misses cut, Notre Dame into top four

Despite its win over Oregon over the weekend, the Bruins find themselves on the outside looking in entering Week 7, while Notre Dame rose two spots ahead of its clash at BYU

Oct 13, 2026 at 10:52 am ET • 7 min read

UCLA is riding high off a road win over Oregon and its first 5-0 start since 2022.

First-year coach Bob Chesney has injected new energy into the Bruins that has the college football world talking. The preseason expectations, which might have been as simple as making a bowl, have already been significantly heightened. 

Midway through the season, UCLA now has the 14th-best playoff odds in the country, according to CBS Sports' forecasting and projections team. With an easy schedule that includes only one ranked opponent (No. 19 USC) remaining, one could easily talk themselves into UCLA being this year's version of that 2024 Indiana team. 

And then disaster struck when veteran quarterback Nico Iamaleava went down with a significant knee injury against the Ducks. CBS Sports' Matt Zenitz reported Monday that Iamaleava is expected to miss the rest of the season. 

If you haven't watched UCLA at all this season, the loss of Iamaleava is significant. The former five-star recruit had elevated his play under Chesney and was positioning himself to possibly be a Day 2 NFL Draft pick next year. Before the injury, Iamaleava had thrown for 982 passing yards and four touchdowns. 

Iamaleava's injury is the reason you won't see UCLA listed in our College Football Playoff bracket projections below. Cal Poly transfer quarterback Ty Dieffenbach, who has thrown six passes for the Bruins this season, has massive shoes to fill. Getting a resurgent Wisconsin team in his first start for the Bruins isn't an easy task, either.

If there's a silver lining from a playoff committee standpoint, the injury occurred early enough in the season that, should UCLA continue to win at a high rate, it shouldn't be penalized for it. Florida State was famously left out of the 2023 four-team playoff after starting quarterback Jordan Travis suffered a season-ending injury in the second-to-last week of the regular season. FSU didn't have enough time to prove it was just as capable without Travis -- if it could ever do so in the committee's eyes -- and was left out in favor of Alabama.

That shouldn't be the case for UCLA. Dieffenbach and the Bruins have upcoming chances against Wisconsin, Michigan State, Minnesota, Michigan and USC to prove they are playoff-worthy. With the nation's No. 6 rushing offense (253 yards per game) and a talented defense that forced a whopping seven turnovers against Oregon, UCLA doesn't need huge numbers out of its new quarterback. Even average QB play that can help prevent opposing defenses from stacking the box against star running back Wayne Knight would be hugely beneficial. 

If UCLA goes undefeated, it will be in the playoff field. If it goes 11-1 and Oregon doesn't completely collapse, it'll have a strong argument to be in the field. A 10-2 finish with losses to Wisconsin and USC could be enough to keep it out. 

If UCLA wins this weekend, its playoff odds would improve to 36.4%. Beyond simply the final score, though, the attention will be on how UCLA looks without Iamaleava. 

CBS Sports 138: Georgia takes top spot over Miami, Notre Dame in college football rankings

Chip Patterson

No. 1 Georgia 6-0 (SEC champion)

The Bulldogs finally take their rightful spot atop these projections. I had wanted to move Georgia up earlier, as my preseason SEC champion pick, but gave Texas the benefit of the doubt after its early resume-entrenching win over Ohio State. No longer. Georgia is the best team in the country and is essentially a mathematical lock (99.8%) to make the playoff, according to our forecasting model. The Bulldogs have a real shot to go undefeated this season at this rate, though there are still challenging games like Ole Miss, Missouri and Florida left. Previous: 3

No. 2 Ohio State 5-1 (Big Ten champion)

The Buckeyes have remained at the No. 2 spot for most of this season, and nothing has happened to change that. Ohio State made it look easy in a 45-16 home win over Maryland. Leaving Ohio State here is essentially baking in a win over Indiana this weekend in a top-five showdown. A win Saturday would give OSU nearly 90% odds to make the field. Previous: 2

No. 3 Miami 5-0 (ACC champion)

The Hurricanes are sitting pretty atop the ACC coming out of a bye week. Next up is a struggling Florida State team that could really use a win to improve Mike Norvell's job security. Previous: 3

No. 4 Notre Dame 6-0

The Fighting Irish absolutely clobbered Stanford, 58-7, in one of the most impressive results of the season. Notre Dame totaled five rushing touchdowns and 361 rushing yards while making Stanford look like an FCS opponent. That should bode well headed into its toughest test of the year thus far at BYU this weekend. If Notre Dame can win, the model loves its odds of making the field (98%). Previous: 6

No. 5 Alabama 5-1

Even with a loss, Alabama doesn't drop in our projections. The Crimson Tide very much looked the part in a close 20-17 loss to Georgia, which featured a few controversial calls against Alabama. Keelon Russell looks like the real deal, and the schedule looks plenty manageable down the stretch, especially if the Tide can get past Tennessee in Knoxville this weekend. With a win over the Vols, Alabama's playoff odds would improve to 87.7%. Previous: 5

No. 6 Indiana 6-0

The Hoosiers escaped with a comeback road win over Nebraska that both showed their resiliency and exposed some weaknesses. Curt Cignetti told me before the season they'd run the ball more than Josh Hoover experienced at TCU to take some pressure off him. That approach largely worked before Nebraska, where the Hoosiers managed only 65 rushing yards. There are still some questions around Hoover's consistency and accuracy, which could become factors Saturday against Ohio State. Previous: 7

No. 7 Texas 4-1

The wobbly Longhorns finally toppled over in a last-second loss to Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry. Texas had the best win in the country (Ohio State) but had rarely looked like the actual best team in the country. The loss cranked up the questions around Steve Sarkisian as the play-caller, Arch Manning as the quarterback and others associated with a Texas team that looks off. The Longhorns have a big opportunity to quiet the critics against a suddenly desperate Florida team coming off consecutive blowout losses. Previous: 1

No. 8 Texas Tech 5-0 (Big 12 champion)

The Red Raiders stay at No. 8 following a bye week. Next up is an Arizona State team that hasn't been great but feels like the kind of tricky game that will be close late. Texas Tech has remained the Big 12 champion pick because it has the easiest remaining schedule of the primary contenders. Previous: 8

No. 9 Ole Miss 4-1

The Rebels looked great in a blowout 52-17 road win over Vanderbilt. The tougher test comes this weekend against a 5-1 Missouri team that might be the positive surprise of the early SEC season. A loss to Missouri would be devastating for Ole Miss' playoff hopes, dropping the Rebels' odds to 6.8%. A big reason why: Ole Miss still has Texas, Georgia and Mississippi State left on the schedule. 

No. 10 Utah 5-0

The Utes have the seventh-best playoff odds in the country (72.3%) and are well-positioned to make the field especially if they can beat BYU on Nov. 7. A hapless Colorado team should be no problem for Utah this weekend. Utah moved up one spot with Oregon dropping out of the projected field. Previous: 11

No. 11 Kentucky 5-1

The Wildcats jumped into our projections for the first time after an overtime win over LSU. First-year coach Will Stein is your early frontrunner for Coach of the Year for what he's already done with a program that went 5-7 a season ago. The CBS forecasting model is still skeptical of Kentucky's chances (only 9.2% odds currently), but a win over Oklahoma in what screams a potential letdown game would boost those odds to 19%. Previous: NR

No. 12 Boise State 5-1

Boise State successfully handled one of its toughest remaining challenges Saturday in a 38-28 win over Fresno State. Boise State's remaining five regular-season opponents have a combined 11-15 record so far. If Boise State can get past Oregon State on Nov. 14, the Broncos could be playoff-bound. Previous: 12

Just missed the cut: BYU, UCLA, Missouri, Mississippi State, Iowa

First round

Dec. 18-19 at higher seeds

No. 12 Boise State at No. 5 Alabama

No. 11 Kentucky at No. 6 Indiana

No. 10 Utah at No. 7 Texas

No. 9 Ole Miss at No. 8 Texas Tech 

Quarterfinal matchups

Dec. 30 in Glendale, Ariz., Jan. 1 in Atlanta, Arlington, Texas, and Pasadena, Calif. 

No. 1 Georgia  vs. No. 8 Texas Tech/No. 9 Ole Miss winner

No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 7 Texas/No. 10 Utah winner

No. 3 Miami vs. No. 6 Indiana/No. 11 Kentucky winner

No. 4 Notre Dame vs. No. 5 Alabama/No. 12 Boise State winner 

Semifinal matchups

Jan. 14 in Miami and Jan. 15 in New Orleans

No. 1 Georgia/No. 8 Texas Tech/No. 9 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 4 Notre Dame/No. 5 Alabama/No. 12 Boise State winner

No. 2 Ohio State/No. 7 Texas/No. 10 Utah winner vs. No. 3 Miami/No. 6 Indiana/No. 11 Kentucky winner