Nigeria’s economy grows over 4% in 2026 – Tinubu

President Bola Tinubu said Nigeria’s economy grew by more than four per cent in 2026, as his administration seeks to shift its focus from economic reforms to driving broader prosperity.

The president said this in his Independence Day address to Nigerians on Thursday, adding that both the oil and non-oil sectors contributed to the growth.

“Our economy has grown by over 4 per cent this year. Both oil and non-oil sectors have contributed to the renewed period of stable growth,” he said.

The claim comes after the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported that Nigeria’s real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 4.43 per cent year-on-year in the second quarter of 2026, up from 3.89 per cent in the first quarter and 4.23 per cent in the corresponding quarter of 2025.

Q2 performance also brought first-half growth to about 4.16 per cent, according to NBS data, up from 3.68 per cent in the first half of 2025.

Growth driven largely by non-oil economy

The latest GDP figures show that the expansion was not driven solely by crude oil.

The non-oil sector accounted for 95.84 per cent of real GDP in the second quarter and grew by 4.31 per cent year-on-year. Activities including agriculture, information and communication, real estate, trade, financial services, manufacturing and construction supported the sector.

The services sector remained the largest contributor to output, accounting for 56.62 per cent of real GDP and growing by 4.60 per cent during the quarter.

Agriculture, which contributed 26.15 per cent to real GDP, also grew faster, rising 4.39 per cent compared with 2.82 per cent in the second quarter of 2025.

The oil sector recorded real growth of 7.31 per cent year on year in the second quarter, although it accounted for only 4.16 per cent of total real GDP.

The sector’s average daily crude oil production also increased to 1.72 million barrels per day in the second quarter, from 1.68 million barrels per day in the corresponding period of 2025.

Economy expands after years of weak growth

The latest performance extends Nigeria’s gradual economic recovery.

NBS data show the economy grew by 3.87 per cent in real terms in 2025, up from 3.38 per cent in 2024. The Q2 2026 expansion was also the strongest quarterly growth recorded since the third quarter of 2024.

The 4.43 per cent Q2 growth represented the fastest second-quarter expansion in five years. However, analysts have cautioned that the headline growth rate does not necessarily mean that households are experiencing a corresponding improvement in living standards.

The Nigeria Employers’ Consultative Association also described the Q2 growth as a positive signal but cautioned that the recovery remained fragile, particularly because businesses continued to face difficult operating conditions.

Tinubu points to wider economic indicators

Beyond GDP growth, President Tinubu said the government’s economic reforms had also improved other areas of the economy.

He noted that oil theft had declined, inflation had fallen from its peak, foreign reserves had been rebuilt, and the foreign exchange market had stabilised.

The president also said Nigeria recorded more than $6 billion in non-oil export revenue in 2025, which he described as the highest in the country’s history.

He added that foreign direct investment was also increasing. He argued that these developments showed the reforms introduced since his administration came to office were improving the country’s economic outlook.

From reforms to prosperity

President Tinubu said the government’s economic priority was shifting from correcting structural weaknesses to generating broader, more sustained prosperity.

He noted that the government would focus on reducing the cost of living by lowering the cost of producing and transporting goods.

According to him, this would involve expanding mechanised irrigation and dry-season farming, improving access to seeds and fertiliser, increasing mechanisation and investing in storage and transportation infrastructure.

He also said the government would continue investing in roads, railways and ports to improve connections between farms, factories and markets.

The President said the government would also use Nigeria’s gas resources to support industrial development, expand digital connectivity, improve access to skills and provide businesses with infrastructure and finance to grow.

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“We are therefore placing jobs, enterprise, and industrial growth at the heart of our government’s policies.”

President Tinubu acknowledged that economic growth alone would not immediately resolve the hardship millions of Nigerians face.

He attributed persistent hardship to decades of low productivity, inadequate infrastructure, limited opportunities and institutional weaknesses, saying the government could not reverse all of those challenges within four years.

“We cannot erase in four years what accumulated over generations. But we can change its course,” he said.

He added that the government would continue social protection programmes and credit interventions, including the Nigerian Education Loan Fund and the Nigerian Consumer Credit Corporation, alongside efforts to strengthen basic public services.

The President said the government’s objective was to sustain economic growth and create productive opportunities that would improve living conditions.

“The age of reform has done its work. Now begins the age of prosperity.”