Exports to US, EU push China towards record trade surplus

China’s exports soared in September, official data showed Wednesday, putting the country on course for a record annual trade surplus that is likely to increase calls for rebalancing trade from major partners, including the European Union (EU) and the US.

Exports rose 36.3% year-on-year according to China’s customs administration, far exceeding the 25.7% rise predicted by a Bloomberg survey of analysts.

Imports also spiked 31% in September, but the world’s second-largest economy still recorded a trade surplus of US$133.5 billion, the largest monthly figure since January 2025.

China’s cumulative trade surplus through the end of September reached US$938.1 billion, putting it on course to break the record US$1.2 trillion surplus it recorded last year.

With domestic demand weak by comparison — retail sales grew just 0.4% year-on-year in August — Beijing has relied on exports to meet its annual growth target of 4.5% to 5%.

But the boom in shipments has triggered pushback from major markets including the US — which launched a bruising trade war against China last year — and Europe.

Shipments to the US rose 39.6% in September, up from a low base last year when trade cratered after Beijing and Washington slapped punitive tariffs on each others’ goods.

Shipments to the EU rose 25.3% in September, while imports from the 27-nation bloc were flat, pushing China’s trade surplus with the bloc to new heights.

EU officials have described the bloc’s deficit with China, which runs at more than 1 billion euros a day, as “unsustainable” and pledged to rebalance the trading relationship.

Talks last week between China and EU trade chiefs Maros Sefcovic and Wang Wentao ended with an agreement to limit exports of Chinese hybrid vehicles to Europe, though analysts say that makes up only a small share of bilateral trade.

“Brussels is considering expanding restrictions to more strategic sectors, though we estimate that the impact of this on China’s economy would be small,” said Nguyen Hoang Nam, China economist at Capital Economics.