Week 10 best bets: Fernando Mendoza gets picked, loses in first start; Josh Downs has big impact for KC
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Week 9 wasn't our best. Drake London just barely missed on our six-catch, 80-yard parlay (a couple of penalties he drew didn't help our cause), Sione Vaki didn't see as much action as anticipated after a strong Week 8, and somehow the Texans and the Chargers combined for 66(!) points.
I was happy with the two calls that hit. Not only did Drake Maye throw 1+ interceptions, but he threw one on his first play! We could breathe easy there, and he actually ended up throwing three picks against that excellent Packers defense. Hopefully you tailed there. Oh, and the Broncos easily covered against the Panthers.
So we end the first half of the season with a 23-22 record. Not great, but not bad. We were 10-5 over the past three weeks, too, so if you're just joining us, you've arrived at a good time. Oh, and if you follow along for game picks, we were 14-1 (straight up) last week and are 91-45 on the season.
Let's start the second half strong.
As always, all odds are via DraftKings.
Josh Downs 25+ receiving yards (+100)
Simply put, Josh Downs is unlike any receiver the Chiefs currently have, and that's a good thing. He is immediately the Chiefs' best man coverage beater by far. Yes, I get that it's a short week for him after the trade deadline, but he should see significant work. Plus, the Falcons have been playing more and more man coverage of late, meaning Downs could have a chance to shine right away. And remember, the Falcons traded away Jessie Bates III this week, too, potentially opening things up for Downs in the middle of the field.
49ers cover (-3.5) at Cowboys (-115)
I was surprised to see such a small spread, even with the 49ers on the road. The Cowboys just struggled to beat the Colts. The Colts! Before that, they lost to the Cardinals. Earlier in the year, they lost to the Buccaneers, who were starting an undrafted rookie quarterback, at home by eight.
The offense really hasn't been bad, but it's not elite. The Cowboys are fifth in EPA per play and sixth in success rate, but just 17th in explosive play rate and 11th in yards per play overall. There are weird lulls, weird turnovers and just not quite as much firepower as one would expect. But this is more about a 49ers attack that should absolutely churn through the Dallas defense. Christian McCaffrey leads the top rushing game (in terms of success rate) in the NFL. The passing game is No. 2 in success rate. It doesn't seem to matter too much who the 49ers put at wide receiver as long as McCaffrey, George Kittle, Brock Purdy and Trent Williams are on the field. This unit is going to roll.
Colby Parkinson 4+ receptions (-117)
You may have heard that Puka Nacua is out for an extended period of time with a knee injury and that Davante Adams remains out. The Rams didn't do anything at the trade deadline, so the current wide receivers are Tutu Atwell, Konata Mumpfield, CJ Daniels and Xavier Smith.
What does that sound like to me? A lot of tight ends. Like, A LOT. And Colby Parkinson has had 4+ receptions in three straight games without absurd workloads. With few reliable wide receivers and Davis Allen nursing an oblique injury, I expect plenty of Parkinson usage.
Ravens OVER 20.5 points (-125)
After watching the Chargers get shredded by C.J. Stroud last week, I have a good deal of confidence the Ravens can surpass 20 points in Jacoby Brissett's debut. Brissett is not Stroud, who is having an excellent year, but he will keep the offense on track, and that will help Derrick Henry get going after several poor weeks. Add in that the Chargers are good for a turnover or two per game, and I see a solid scoring day for Baltimore in a must-win game.
Seahawks moneyline at Raiders AND Fernando Mendoza 1+ interceptions (-115)
The Seahawks should be able to take care of a reeling Raiders team that has lost five of six after a 3-0 start and just traded away Kirk Cousins. Fernando Mendoza is preparing for his first start on short notice (Cousins wasn't traded until Tuesday) against one of the league's best defenses. This seems like a straightforward parlay for me.
Season record: 23-22
Week 10 picks
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