Why The Mandalorian & Grogu Flopped At The Box Office & What It Means For Star Wars' Future

Published Sep 2, 2026, 8:30 AM EDT

Cooper Hood is the Associate Editor for all new movie releases, in theaters and on streaming. In addition to writing articles about these titles and upcoming releases, he also oversees content planning for each, ensuring that ScreenRant continues to cover major releases for months after their release.

He has written various reviews for ScreenRant that appear on Rotten Tomatoes, coordinated Oscars and San Diego Comic-Con coverage, appeared on CNN to talk about Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning, and done select interviews with talent over the years.

The Mandalorian and Grogu wasn't the box office performer Lucasfilm and Disney had in mind, with several factors leading to the Star Wars flop that altered perception of the future. As a continuation movie to the flagship Disney+ TV show, Din Djarin (Pedro Pascal) and Grogu heading to the big screen was meant to be an easy win for the franchise after seven years away.

However, The Mandalorian and Grogu's box office didn't come close to meeting expectations. It set franchise low marks in several ways (opening weekend, domestic total, etc.) on its road to grossing $345 million worldwide, which is the lowest total for any live-action Star Wars movie; Solo: A Star Wars Story previously held the record at $392 million.

After four of five Disney Star Wars movies made over $1 billion, Jon Favreau's film was expected to come close to those figures given The Mandalorian's popularity. Instead, the poor performance has labeled The Mandalorian and Grogu as a box office flop by making barely more than a third of that.

It's a result that even the most pessimistic about the film and Star Wars couldn't see coming. But in hindsight, there are several reasons why Disney and Lucasfilm could have seen The Mandalorian and Grogu's results coming. They range from how they handled the movie to the state of Star Wars, and it has ramifications on what comes next.

The Mandalorian & Grogu Didn't Sell Itself As A Theatrical Experience

Image courtesy of Nicola Goode/Lucasfilm/Disney

Arguably the biggest problem for The Mandalorian and Grogu is that audiences weren't convinced that Din and Grogu's new adventure mandated a theatrical viewing. The show conditioned fans to watch these characters on streaming, and their missions were well-suited for the smaller screen. While there is a slightly bigger scale in play for The Mandalorian and Grogu, the movie couldn't differentiate itself.

Disney and Lucasfilm's marketing was routinely underwhelming, with criticisms flying at the movie that it looked and felt exactly like episodes of the show. On one hand, that made sense, ensuring fans of The Mandalorian get more of what they like. However, it also meant the movie felt like multiple episodes of the show cut together rather than a single adventure that needed to be experienced in theaters.

Ultimately, many clearly decided that they weren't all that interested in following the story from Disney+ to theaters. This isn't unique to The Mandalorian and Grogu, though. Disney has seen struggles across the board with theatrical movies that serve as continuations of Disney+ shows and characters, such as with The Marvels, Captain America: Brave New World, and Thunderbolts*, performing well at the box office.

The Star Wars Brand Isn't What It Used To Be

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Beyond the issues with its Disney+ ties, The Mandalorian and Grogu's struggles are certainly a result of the fall of the Star Wars brand over the years. Many still hold the franchise in high regard thanks to the nostalgia associated with the original trilogy or prequels, but the last decade has been filled with lots of lows and division that split the fanbase.

The sequel trilogy became increasingly controversial as Rey and Kylo's stories continued and shifted severely as different creators took the reins. This didn't stop the movies from succeeding at the box office, but they all still had Luke Skywalker and other franchise icons to keep the masses interested. The divisiveness and toxicity that arose around Star Wars over this stretch turned many away for various reasons.

Lucasfilm and Disney then pivoted fully to Disney+, training fans that this is where they can get continuous stories in the galaxy far, far away. Some of these were huge successes, like The Mandalorian early on or Andor, but others brought their own fair share of division, as seen with The Acolyte or The Book of Boba Fett.

This put the brand in a tough spot heading into The Mandalorian and Grogu. The box office numbers were starting to reflect some fans falling off, while the streaming push made everyone comfortable experiencing this galaxy at home instead of in theaters. That stayed true for The Mandalorian and Grogu rather than the movie ushering in a glorious return.

The Mandalorian & Grogu Came At The Wrong Time

Making a movie for Din and Grogu is understandable when we consider The Mandalorian's popularity on streaming, but it's also indisputable that the sequel film came too late. Interest in the show and these characters peaked in 2020 when season 2 came. Season 1's success led to an increase in season 2's viewership.

If Disney had announced a movie at that point and brought it to theaters several years ago, The Mandalorian and Grogu's box office performance probably would look a lot different. It would have had other challenges, like finding an audience earlier in a post-pandemic theatrical landscape, but it would have come before interest in The Mandalorian fell off.

Season 3 took several years to make, with Favreau opting to do The Book of Boba Fett between seasons. The spinoff was not favorably received by viewers, hurting the standing of the "Mandoverse" in fans' eyes. That led to fewer people tuning in for The Mandalorian season 3, and the majority of those who did watch it did not care for what they saw. Those same people wouldn't then be willing to go to a theater and spend more money to see what comes next.

The Mandalorian & Grogu's Box Office Isn't As Bad As It Looks

There is no getting around the fact that The Mandalorian and Grogu's box office is underwhelming and not what the studios hoped for. However, it's not a total disaster.

The Mandalorian and Grogu's budget was only $165 million, the lowest for a live-action Star Wars movie. The cost is comparable to what Disney and Lucasfilm spent on each season of The Mandalorian ($100-$120 million). That lower figure gave the movie a projected break-even point of $412.5 million. While it still came short of that, the modest budget compared to other Star Wars movies ($260+ million on average under Disney) made it less of a financial loser than it could've been.

It's also worth considering that The Mandalorian and Grogu is basically a made-for-streaming movie that got an extended theatrical run. The film is a retooled version of Favreau's season 4 plans, so one could argue that Disney just made an additional $345 million by changing the release format.

This doesn't even account for any additional revenue Disney and Lucasfilm generated. Merchandise, digital and home video sales, and any subscriber growth that comes in conjunction with The Mandalorian and Grogu's Disney+ release all add to the film's complete financial performance. We'll never know firm numbers on most of that, but there is certainly a world where the movie winds up profitable through other sources of income.

The Real Test Of Star Wars' Movie Future Is Next Year

It's easy to look at The Mandalorian and Grogu's performance and forecast doom for Star Wars' future on the big screen. But that would be premature. As Yoda once said, "there is another" movie that will determine the franchise's future: Star Wars: Starfighter.

The May 2027 Star Wars movie stars Ryan Gosling and is positioned to be a better test case for audiences' appetites for this franchise in theaters. It's a whole new adventure featuring fresh characters, requiring no homework from audiences to feel like they can see it. Starfighter should skew a bit more adult compared to The Mandalorian and Grogu while still maintaining a family-friendly quality that should help get audiences of all ages excited.

If Starfighter also crashes and burns at the box office, sounding alarm bells for Star Wars will be understandable. It has all the makings of a massive hit and the early footage has generated very positive reactions thus far. The Mandalorian and Grogu might not have been the strong showing of the franchise's power everyone expected, but all hope should not be lost just yet.

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  Rotta (voice)

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